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Football betting tips: Premier League relegation preview for the 2017/18 season
David John has two picks at 15/8 and 6/1 in the battle to avoid the Premier League drop.
Recommended bets: 2017/18 Premier League relegation
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Just over half of the Premier League are 10/1 or shorter to be playing their football in the second tier next season and that means a significant number of managers, coaches and playing staff might be feeling more than a little nervous.
While some of the above will openly admit to harbouring dreams of Europe or extended cup runs, secretly survival is ultimately the name of the game and all the financial security it brings from astronomical television rights.
A long, drawn out relegation battle while constantly hovering in or around the bottom three is incredibly draining for all involved while those just above the danger zone come spring will be fully aware that the slightest blip in form can lead to disaster.
With the insane riches the Premier League offers, owners seem much quicker these days to wield the managerial axe which can make coming up with a profitable pick in this market so much harder.
Pinpointing a team with potential problems before a ball is kicked might not be too hard and they struggle as predicted – until some ‘super boss’ potentially parachutes in to save the day and a bet based on sound logic goes out of the window.
There remain the Sunderlands of this world though – started slowly, faded, hopelessly tailed off – so we live in hope that a bet in this sphere sees any selections struggling to make up the numbers before the blossom is out on the trees.
Top of my shortlist this year are Watford, who could find themselves unable to live up to some lofty aspirations of becoming a top-10 team from the man controlling the purse strings, Gino Pozzo.
There was much delight in Hertfordshire after he appointed rising managerial starlet Marco Silva to follow in the footsteps of Quique Sanchez Flores and Walter Mazzarri but the contract already has a ‘break clause’ included after the first season.
Click here for Sky Bet's Premier League relegation odds
The owner’s lack of faith in the managerial community stretches even further back so Silva knows he better hit the ground running after a full summer to get to know his playing staff and vice-versa.
The Portuguese earned huge praise for the work he did after taking over from Mike Phelan at Hull but one or two issues still niggle away at me before we all start hailing him as the saviour of the Hornets.
An impressive home record included victories over Liverpool and Manchester United in the EFL Cup but Silva remains a manager who could not get any sort of victory out of his side on the road – not a single one.
Even when their objective was clear over the closing three games, Silva’s side limply caved in with a home defeat to Sunderland followed by capitulation at fellow strugglers Crystal Palace – the less said about the finale against Tottenham the better.
Silva has enjoyed success previously in Greece and Portugal but his ability to get that extra yard from his team in a battle at the other end of the table must still be taken on trust.
It can be argued to some extent he now has a better squad of players this time around at Vicarage Road but the nucleus remains of a side that plunged into a tailspin and lost six on the trot to finish the season having given up the ghost on Mazzarri.
Nathaniel Chalobah and Will Hughes are interesting young recruits but it is hard to hang your hopes on them if they are your main summer acquisitions while how motivated or injury-free key men Troy Deeney and Roberto Pereyra are respectively remains to be seen.
Last season’s AC Milan loanee M’Baye Niang provided a few tasty highlights but his reluctance to return tells its own story while I don’t particularly rate either a defence built around clumsy Austrian Sebastian Prodl.
Veteran goalkeeper Heurelho Gomes might have signed a new two-year deal to keep him in gum shields but always looks good value for a clanger or two along the way and that means more squandered points.
Pozzo might feel he is in charge of the next success story in the top flight relatively-speaking but I have my doubts and this shapes up as more of a struggle for all involved.
Premier League relegation stats
Average points won by team finishing 18th (ie minimum to survive): 35.9
Most points won by team finishing 18th: 42 (West Ham 02/03)
Fewest points won by team finishing 18th: 30 (Burnley, 09/10)
All 3 newly-promoted teams have gone straight back down on only one occasion – 1997/98 (Bolton, Barnsley, Palace)
All 3 newly-promoted teams have survived on only two occasions – 2001/02 (Fulham, Bolton, Blackburn) and 2011/12 (QPR, Norwich, Swansea)
Moving on to who might join them, Brighton appear the most vulnerable of the three promoted clubs.
Not that they seem a particularly bad team but I just anticipate a little better in comparison from the collective spirit that Huddersfield have developed under David Wagner after a very decent recruitment drive during the off-season.
Sealing a permanent deal for Aussie Aaron Mooy was important and former Montpellier hitman Steve Mounie has a chance to keep them afloat with his instincts in front of goal provided reasonably regular service.
There has been worryingly little transfer activity at Newcastle on the other hand but the excellent Rafael Benitez will place the weight of this behemoth on his shoulders and work with the tools at his disposal to avoid another humiliating downward exit.
Burnley ground out enough performances to finish six points above the drop zone and another battle is on the cards without Michael Keane at the back but I reckon Sean Dyche will have just about enough up his sleeve once more.
So I am tempted instead to play at a bigger price on West Brom to finish up in the relegation mire.
The talk last March after they had duffed up a dreary Arsenal 3-1 at The Hawthorns was of a record points haul and potential upward thrust for Europe but the Baggies ran out of steam in dramatic fashion.
They had all but accrued the points to eventually finish 10th but ended the season with no wins from their final nine fixtures as manager Tony Pulis readily admitted his side lacked the creative punch or depth of talent for that final push.
Jay Rodriguez and Egyptian Ahmed Hegazi have both been added to bolster the playing staff but have something to prove – Pulis does like that type of footballer to be fair - on a roster that could quickly be exposed.
Their philosophy will be based again on team spirit and work ethic and quotes such as “we won’t get carried away” after finishing the top midlands team in the country suggests the Welshman never asks his players to really shoot for the stars.
That straight-talking approach has served him well down the years but you have to wonder how long an aerial bombardment from corners and free-kicks will be effective as rivals start to find a more effective way to cope – which they will.
Pulis deserves great credit as he has kept West Brom ticking along but nothing lasts in such a fast-evolving world as the Premier League and I wonder how long the fans will stand for it if his unadventurous brand of football begins to falter.
If it does start going wrong, he may even pull the plug himself in a bid to maintain his record of not suffering a relegation.
The damage might already be terminal by that stage and we are onto a winner but we may also have to sit and suffer if some new gaffer comes in and works the oracle – it happens these days, so prepare yourself for all eventualities.
Posted at 0700 BST on 09/08/17.
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Last five seasons
16/17
18 Hull 34pts
19 Middlesbrough 28
20 Sunderland 24
15/16
18 Newcastle 37pts
19 Norwich 34
20 Villa 17
14/15
18 Hull 35pts
19 Burnley 33
20 QPR 30
13/14
18 Norwich 33pts
19 Fulham 32
20 Cardiff 30
12/13
18 Wigan 36pts
19 Reading 28
20 QPR 25