David John expects West Ham to have learned a recent lesson with a more disciplined effort on Friday against Brighton in the Premier League.
West Ham v Brighton (2000 BST, Sky Sports Premier League, Mix and Main Event)
West Ham defender Winston Reid has already cranked up the pressure on the hosts by claiming this is the dreaded "must-win" fixture as they try to inject some positive momentum to an in-and-out start to the campaign.
They have just two Premier League wins so far and were within five minutes of a third last weekend against Burnley following a gutsy performance with 10 men for much of the game at Turf Moor following Andy Carroll’s idiotic dismissal after just 27 minutes.
The striker serves his one-match ban here as a result so Slaven Bilic will need a bit of a tactical rethink after going with his most positive line-up of the campaign in east Lancashire with some of his more creative players like Manuel Lanzini and Marko Arnautovic available again.
If you could rely on the Hammers to put it all together then they probably deserve to be odds-on chances against the Seagulls having already beaten one promoted team Huddersfield in pretty convincing fashion at the London Stadium.
Chris Hughton’s outfit, however, are resilient and well organised and have proved on more than one occasion they are no pushovers. They start the game on a level pegging with the same number of points as West Ham.
They had the better of their affair with more chances last week as they preyed on an Everton side lacking in confidence but one silly moment from the usually-reliable Bruno led to an opportunity for a last-gasp equaliser from the penalty spot that Wayne Rooney gratefully accepted.
They have managed just one point away from the Amex Stadium so far - against the 10 men of Watford in August - but another structured performance here would give them some sort of chance of landing a 4/1 quote for all three points, although just one goal on their travels obviously tempers enthusiasm.
Under 2.5 in the match at a best quote of 5/6 looks a rock-solid piece of business but I just prefer to go down the booking points route in this one and get short of 35 in the fixture at odds-against.
The visitors are in tie for 15th in the top flight’s 'naughty boy' disciplinary table and although West Ham lead the way, you have to hold some semblance of optimism they will be on best behaviour, particularly with Carroll being called out by senior team-mates like Pablo Zabaleta.
I sometimes get the impression that even Bilic can't get a grip of this group and frustration spills over into a breakdown on the pitch too many times but surely even the most committed West Ham player will think twice about doing anything detrimental on this occasion following recent events.
Prediction: West Ham 1-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Recommended bet
1pt under 35 total match booking points at 5/4
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Posted at 1245 BST on 19/10/17.
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