Premier League tips: Leicester v Tottenham
Ben Coley looks at tonight's Premier League clash between Leicester and Spurs, with goals very much on the agenda. Get his verdict plus Opta facts.
Recommended bets: Leicester v Spurs
Leicester v Spurs (1945 BST, live on Sky Sports 1 HD)
Another bizarre season for Leicester City draws towards a close with a pair of home games, and if they can avoid defeat in this one their prospects of a top-half finish will become extremely solid indeed.
The Foxes currently lie 11th and will be eighth or ninth with a win against Spurs, but a more realistic ambition is to stay where they are with a draw, which would mean a guaranteed 10th or better if they beat Bournemouth on Sunday.
It's possible to argue, then, that with the addition of a manager's job still up for grabs it's Leicester who will arrive on the pitch with the higher levels of motivation, given that Spurs have already secured second place behind champions Chelsea, their best ever Premier League finish.
Except that doesn't really fit the profile of Spurs, who are building something big under Mauricio Pochettino and have done so by aiming high. With four days of the season to go, that means 86 points - a figure which would've won them the title last year. Not that it works like that, of course, but the higher the figure, the greater the achievement.
Of course, simply turning up and putting it all in is by no means certain to secure three points for the visitors, because the key to Leicester's transformation from relegation candidates to top-half probables has been their home form, which is first-class and nothing less.
Since losing to Manchester United in February, they've won six from six domestically and produced a bold display to draw 1-1 with Atletico Madrid, a side of rough equivalence to tonight's visitors, having earlier seen off Sevilla on a famous Champions League night.
No side has scored more than once at the King Power during this run and the last to find the net here in the league was Hull more than two months ago, so whatever the rights and wrongs of Claudio Ranieri's dismissal, Craig Shakespeare has to be applauded for restoring this ground to a fortress befitting of defending champions.
It's to his credit that their defence will end on a high note when ultimate disaster was very much on the table and while defence will be an issue here, with Robert Huth and Wes Morgan among a host of absentees, it's easy to understand why Spurs are drifting towards even-money.
Without doubt, there's temptation to back the away side should they get to the double-your-money stage given that Shakespeare has had to draft in some youth players but they too have some issues in defence, while the driving force of Mousa Dembele is also likely to be absent from the starting line-up.
Rather than take a firm view on whether to side with a brilliant home record or the straightforwardly superior team, then, I'm inclined to take prices in the region of 7/4 about a minimum of four goals in what should still be an entertaining game, despite the absence of real significance.
Spurs haven't exactly been free-scorers on the road of late, but that could change following their defeat to West Ham which allowed Chelsea to begin their title celebrations earlier than had been forecast.
Remember, they signed off last season with a 5-1 defeat at Newcastle and while this side has come a long way since, like Leicester they've little to lose here and any weaknesses appear to be in defence.
While a draw for the hosts would be a good result, they are hardly set-up to play for one and with further absentees across midfield, I expect they'll allow Spurs to come onto them and hope to spring into action on the break, something we've seen them do to devastating effect over the last 18 months.
If Spurs do dominate possession, as expected it's hard to see how a depleted Leicester defence prevents them from scoring twice let alone once, so all the options involving above 2.5 goals and both teams to score are worth exploring, with over 3.5 preferred.
One final note: this might not be a last-day-of-the-season game, but it carries a similar profile and that furthers the likelihood that goals are in store. Last season, four of the 10 contained over 3.5, as did four of the 10 in 2015.
Among them are a 5-1 win for Leicester at home and a 5-1 defeat for Spurs away, and two confident sides with at least something to play for appear to me to be more likely to throw everything at each other than go through the motions.
And remember, Harry Kane is still fighting for the Golden Boot, so the classiest striker on the pitch - and arguably in the division - will be sniffing around everything in a bid to close the gap on Romelu Lukaku.
One way or another, there should be goals.
Prediction: Leicester 2-3 Tottenham
Opta facts:
o After one home defeat in their first seven home Premier League games against Spurs (W5 D1), Leicester are winless in the last three (D1 L2).
o Of the five meetings between the sides in all competitions since the start of last season, Spurs have lost only once (W1 D3).
o Only once in 10 previous home games against Tottenham in the Premier League have the Foxes failed to score (1-0 defeat in April 2000).
o Tottenham have won only one of their previous 24 away Premier League games against a reigning champion, with Tim Sherwood’s Spurs beating Manchester United in January 2014 (D3 L20).
o Craig Shakespeare has won all five of his home Premier League games as manager. Leicester haven’t won six top-flight home games in a row since March 1966.
o Marc Albrighton has been involved in seven goals in 10 Premier League games under Shakespeare (2 goals, 5 assists), compared to one goal in 21 appearances under Claudio Ranieri this season (0 goals, 1 assist).
o Christian Eriksen (13) is one assist away from equalling Darren Anderton’s record of 14 (1994-95) for a Spurs player in a single Premier League season.
o Tottenham have won 80 points this season from 36 games and will finish in 2nd place. This points tally is already higher than the second places side in each of the last two seasons: Arsenal – 71 points in 2015-16 and Manchester City 79 points in 2014-15.
o In fact, if Spurs (80 points) win this match then they would surpass the points tally achieved by Leicester City when they won the Premier League last season (81 points).
o Since the start of September, Harry Kane has scored 22 goals in 25 Premier League appearances for Tottenham Hotspur.
Posted at 0815 BST on 18/05/17.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
