Premier League final day betting preview, tips and scoreline predictions for every game
Our betting preview of the final day of the Premier League season includes tips, statistics and scoreline predictions.
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All matches kick-off at 1500 BST
Written by Nick Hext
Arsenal v Everton
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A four-match winning run has given Arsenal the chance to qualify for the Champions League on the final day of the season if either Liverpool or Manchester City slip-up.
City are three points clear of Arsenal and five better off than the Gunners’ goal difference. That means Arsenal have to beat Everton by a margin on Sunday and hope City lose at Watford in convincing fashion to have any chance of finishing third.
That won’t happen.
Arsenal's only relatively realistic hope (and still very much an outside bet) is Liverpool failing to beat already-relegated Middlesbrough at Anfield. Anything but a win for the Reds would mean that victory for Arsene Wenger’s men would secure a top-four finish for the 21st season in a row.
The Gunners are 6/1 to get that top-four finish but I wouldn’t take a slice of that. There might be a few nervous moments for Liverpool against Boro but they’ll get the job done and that will leave plenty of questions aimed at Wenger ahead of next week’s FA Cup final against champions Chelsea.
It’s also far from straightforward that Arsenal will beat Everton to keep up their end of the bargain on Sunday.
I expect the Gunners to claim a narrow victory but if Liverpool and City are both easing to wins, it will be interesting to see how the hosts deal with an increasingly fractious Emirates Stadium crowd.
Arsenal were far from impressive when beating bottom-of-the-table Sunderland 2-0 on Tuesday night - it took Alexis Sanchez until the 72nd minute to make the breakthrough - and they stumbled to a late 1-0 win at home to Leicester last month when Robert Huth netted an own goal.
Everton beat Watford 1-0 last time out to end a three-match winless run but it’s fair to say Ronald Koeman’s men aren’t at their best away from Goodison Park with only victory picked up in eight away games in 2017.
Toffees striker Romelu Lukaku looks like missing out on the Golden Boot following Harry Kane's Thursday night heroics but he's always worth a look around 11/5 in the anytime goalscorer market, but I’m taking a watching brief pre-match.
The advice is to closely consider Everton in-running if the top-four becomes out of reach for Arsenal as Sunday’s action progresses.
Prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Everton
Opta facts:
o Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 20 Premier League home games against Everton (W16 D4); their longest ever unbeaten streak against a side in the competition.
o Indeed, this run started when Arsene Wenger became manager in 1996, beating all five Everton managers he has faced in that time.
o After beating the Gunners in the reverse fixture this season; the Toffees are looking to do the league double over Arsenal for the first time since the 1985-86 season.
o Olivier Giroud has scored four goals in his last three appearances in all competitions against Everton at the Emirates.
o Arsenal have won each of their last nine matches on home turf contested on the final day of the season, scoring four times in each of the last five.
o After failing to win in 11 successive games on the final day of the season, Everton have picked up victories in seven of the last nine seasons (L2).
o Romelu Lukaku has now gone four games without scoring for the Toffees. He last went longer without a goal in the Premier League between March and August (11 games).
o If Lukaku does end the season as the Premier League's top scorer, he'll be the first Belgian to win the Premier League Golden Boot and the first player to win it from a club outside the top four since Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink for Chelsea in 2000/01.
Burnley v West Ham United
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It would seem somewhat odd if I bucked one of our more successful tactics in this season’s Premier League tips on the final day of the season so I’m getting with Burnley to win at home.
The Clarets end a successful season against West Ham at Turf Moor and they just have to be backed at an inviting odds-against quote, as has been the case so often during the campaign.
Burnley have stuttered a little bit over the last few weeks but the home crowd on Sunday are sure to be as supportive as anywhere in appreciation of staying in the top flight.
Sean Dyche’s men have won nine of their 12 matches against sides from outside the top six this term and that fantastic record is the reason they’ve stayed up without more than a few glances over their shoulder during the run-in.
This will probably end up being star defender Michael Keane’s final game for the Clarets - money is set to talk with the division’s top sides sniffing a deal - but the building blocks are in place to push on a little next season providing Dyche remains in situ and doesn’t stray too far from his masterplan to date.
Slaven Bilic wishes he had the unwavering support that Dyche enjoys in Lancashire.
Bilic could well be on his way out of West Ham in the summer after a campaign of few highs, although the 1-0 win at home to Tottenham a few weeks ago was a hugely impressive effort and one which effectively ended the title race.
I’d give Bilic the time to get things right as there were always going to be problems during the debut season at the London Stadium but the Hammers hierarchy probably won’t be so forgiving.
West Ham had only won one of their 13 matches prior to shocking Spurs and they were abysmal when losing 4-0 at home to Liverpool last weekend.
There just isn’t much to like about the injury-hit Hammers’ chances so it just has to be Burnley at 7/5 for a home win against a side from outside the top six.
Prediction: Burnley 2-0 West Ham United
Opta facts:
o Burnley have won just two of their last 14 league contests against West Ham (D3 L9), losing each of their last three.
o The Hammers have won each of the last two encounters 1-0, thanks to goals from Mark Noble, though both games were at home.
o The Clarets only home victory in their last six home contests with West Ham came in the Premier League in February 2010, with David Nugent and Daniel Fox bagging the goals.
o Burnley have won each of their two final day games in the Premier League, however in both seasons (2009-10, 2014-15) they were already relegated.
o West Ham have lost the last game of the season in each of their last three Premier League campaigns, with each match coming away from home and the Hammers just scoring once.
o 33 of Burnley’s 40 Premier League points this season have come at Turf Moor (83%).
o Should Burnley win this game, their 36 points total at home in the Premier League this season would be the joint-third highest by a newly promoted side at home in a 38-game PL season.
Chelsea v Sunderland
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The season ends at Stamford Bridge with the Premier League’s best team taking on its worst. I think the best team will win.
Chelsea are massively odds-on at 1/6 for a win to get them up to 93 points for the season and there’s no serious case to be made for Sunderland springing a surprise at 25/1.
The Blues made nine changes for Monday night’s entertaining 4-3 win at home to Watford after the title was secured with a 1-0 victory at West Brom the previous Friday.
Michy Batshuayi scored for the second game in a row as he was given a rare chance to start but the bookies have the Belgian striker odds-on across the board to net against Sunderland, along with team-mates Diego Costa and Eden Hazard.
I’m sure Chelsea will win but I’m not convinced it will be a total thrashing. Sunderland went down to two late goals when losing 2-0 at Arsenal in midweek and they’ve only conceded more than twice in one of their last 12 outings.
In-demand goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has been the main reason for their reasonably stern resistance and the principal problem for the Black Cats is having the league’s most limited squad rather than a lack of effort.
Sunderland have only managed to score in one of their previous 13 matches and you know it’s been an awful year when a 2-2 draw at home to West Ham is one of your best moments.
You can get 5/4 for Chelsea to claim victory by three or more goals but I’d wait for the team news to see just who is taking to the field for Antonio Conte’s title winners. For now it's no bet.
Prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Sunderland
Opta facts:
o Chelsea have won 20 of their last 24 Premier League games against Sunderland (D1 L3), although two of those losses have come in the last six contests.
o The Black Cats have lost a total of 22 Premier League games against the Blues; only Manchester United have defeated them more times (23).
o These two sides have met twice on the final day in the Premier League era, with the most recent encounter coming in 2014-15 at Stamford Bridge, when Chelsea also ended the season as Champions.
o Only twice in the Premier League era have Chelsea ended the season with defeat at Stamford Bridge on the final day; a 2-3 loss against Blackburn in 1995-96 and a 1-3 loss in against Aston Villa 2001-02.
o In contrast, Sunderland have only ever won once on the final day of a Premier League season (D3 L11) – a 3-0 victory against West Ham in the 2010-11 campaign.
o This will be David Moyes’ 499th game as a manager in the Premier League (P498 W196 D135 L167, winning 723 points)
Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur
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I was hoping to recommend a 55/1 first goalscorer tip for this match but Hull defender Harry Maguire has been ruled out with a knee injury picked up against Crystal Palace last weekend.
The 4-0 defeat against the Eagles that sent Hull back down to the Sky Bet Championship is set to be the impressive Maguire’s last appearance for the club with a flurry of exits expected from the KCOM Stadium.
Manager Marco Silva’s departure will be the most important. The Portuguese did a fantastic job to even get Hull a whiff of survival as I was convinced before a ball was kicked this season and during Mike Phelan’s tenure that they were doomed to finish bottom.
Sunderland and Middlesbrough’s many inadequacies have also contributed to the Tigers ending up in 18th but the consequences are the same and all three clubs leave the top tier of English football.
Silva’s future is sure to be brighter - I expect him to be a serious contender to replace Claude Puel at Southampton if the Frenchman departs as expected - he’ll have Hull out to impress after going down with such a whimper against Palace.
Hull’s home form has also been very strong this year. They’ve won eight of their 10 matches at the KCOM Stadium in 2017 although it will be the one defeat against bottom-of-the-table Sunderland that will be remembered most for halting all momentum in their battle to stay up.
Injuries have also hit Silva’s squad over the run-in so I’d back away from the 9/2 for a home win, especially with Tottenham boss Mauricio Pochettino having many more ways to spruce up his starting XI.
Tottenham will finish second for the first time in their Premier League history, but it would be churlish to suggest that anything other than incredibly impressive strides have been made over those couple of campaigns.
The move to Wembley will be the key test for Pochettino next term - they've struggled there in the Europa League and West Ham's move to the London Stadium has hardly been an immediate success - but he won’t be thinking of that as he visits the UK City of Culture on Sunday.
Goals should be on the menu but there are better betting opportunities elsewhere.
Prediction: Hull City 2-3 Tottenham Hotspur
Opta facts:
Since winning in their first ever Premier League encounter, Hull are without a win in their last eight games against Tottenham (D2 L6).
o Spurs have only conceded two goals in their last six Premier League games against Hull City, keeping clean sheets in each of their last two.
o Christian Eriksen has scored three goals in his last three Premier League games against the Tigers, scoring a 90th minute winner in this exact fixture in the 2014-15 season.
o This will be the fifth season that Hull City end the season at home in the Premier League, they’ve never scored in all four final day contests.
o Tottenham have lost six of their last eight top-flight away trips on the last day of the season (W2), including a 5-1 defeat last season to an already relegated Newcastle United.
o If Harry Kane were to end the season as the Premier League’s top scorer, he’d be the fifth player to win the Golden Boot in successive seasons, along with Alan Shearer (1994/95, 1995/96, 1996/97), Michael Owen (1997/98 & 1998/99 both shared), Thierry Henry (2003/04, 2004/05, 2005/06) and Robin van Persie (2011/12, 2012/13).
Leicester City v Bournemouth
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There are plenty of big prices available for away wins on the final day of the season and it’s Bournemouth to get the better of Leicester at upwards of 3/1 that catches my eye.
Leicester have been beset by injury problems at the end of a memorable campaign as defending champions that saw them reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League but also struggle domestically until manager Claudio Ranieri was ruthlessly dispensed with.
The rights and wrongs of the decision to part company with Ranieri have been discussed at length already but there can be no doubt that caretaker boss Craig Shakespeare has done a good job at getting the Foxes back to somewhere close to their best.
Leicester have won over half of their matches under Shakespeare’s management so it’s been far from a comedy of errors as was regularly the case at the end of Ranieri’s reign.
The Foxes have been handed the challenge of two matches in quick succession to end the season, and it didn't start well when taking a hammering from Spurs on Thursday.
In light of that miserable showing, it's not hard to see an in-form Cherries outfit taking advantage of the quick turnaround and Shakespeare’s limited options with a tired and depleted squad are also a major factor here.
Bournemouth have won three of their last four games and only suffered defeats to the top two of Chelsea and Tottenham in their previous 11 since the start of March.
Eddie Howe is talking a good game about getting Bournemouth as far up the table as he can - they can finish as high as eighth - and making sure of a top half finish really would represent a tremendous achievement.
The Cherries have been backed with big money over the years but that doesn’t take anything away from Howe’s continuing shrewd leadership and evolution of the Vitality Stadium club from League Two relegation contenders to an established Premier League outfit.
I’m going to end the season with Bournemouth as part of my staking plan.
Prediction: Leicester City 1-3 Bournemouth
Opta facts:
o After winning four successive games in the second tier against Bournemouth, Leicester are without a Premier League victory in three contests (D2 L1).
o Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in their last two league games against Leicester, after going six without one.
o Jamie Vardy scored the winning goal for Leicester the last time they beat Bournemouth at home in a league match in October 2013.
o For just the third time in the 11 Premier League seasons, the Foxes will be finishing the season at home, winning their previous two, including a 5-1 win over QPR at the end of the 2014-15 campaign.
o Bournemouth are away on the final day of season for the fourth successive campaign (W1 D1 L2), with the Cherries last home game on final day coming in League One against Preston North End in 2012.
Liverpool v Middlesbrough
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The equation is simple for Liverpool against Middlesbrough.
Win and the Reds are back in the Champions League and they don’t need to worry at all about how fifth-placed Arsenal get on against their Merseyside rivals Everton.
The Gunners’ late run of form has put Liverpool under pressure but last weekend’s 4-0 demolition of West Ham was as impressive a performance as you could see in a must-win game and it won’t need a display as good as that to dispatch already-relegated Middlesbrough.
Southampton did hold Jurgen Klopp’s men to a 0-0 draw in their last outing at Anfield but Saints are a much better side than Boro, who have conceded 11 goals in their previous three matches on the road.
Aitor Karanka’s departure came too late in the season to do anything for Boro’s survival prospects. Caretaker boss Steve Agnew’s spirited attempt to get more out of his attack has primarily managed to see a more open approach punished by superior opposition.
It will be interesting to see if Agnew gets any more out of his team with this a last glimpse of the bright lights of the Premier League for one season at least.
The criticism following last weekend’s 2-1 defeat at home to Southampton must have stung those in the Boro squad who care, see recent comments from defender George Friend for evidence of the unrest in the ranks, and I’m sure Agnew will turn his focus to players he expects to be at the club next season.
Boro, despite recent capitulations, have still conceded fewer goals than any other side in the bottom half of the standings and they do have the capability to produce a sturdy display that can make things difficult for Liverpool.
Klopp’s men showed that they can cope with must-win games last weekend and I expect the big odds-on favourites to seal their top-four spot.
However, if Boro can produce an improved display that would mean it won’t be quite as easily as the odds would suggest.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Middlesbrough
Opta facts:
o Liverpool are unbeaten against Middlesbrough in their last 21 league games at Anfield (W15 D6); only against Stoke (32), Nottingham Forest (23) and Notts County (22) are the Reds on a longer current unbeaten at home in the league.
o In fact, Middlesbrough are one of three teams to visit Anfield on 10+ occasions in the Premier League without leaving with all three points (Sunderland – 16, Middlesbrough – 14 and Bolton – 13).
o The Reds have won each of their last four Premier League contests against Middlesbrough at Anfield, scoring 2+ goals on each occasion.
o Liverpool have won eight of their 10 Premier League final day games at Anfield (D2), scoring 27 goals.
o In contrast, Boro have lost five of their last six top-flight away trips on the final day (D1), although they did record a final day victory on Merseyside in the 1999-00 season, beating Everton 2-0.
o A Liverpool win will see them finish in the top four of the Premier League for only the second time in the last eight seasons.
o Middlesbrough will finish the season with their fewest wins in a Premier League campaign (five so far this season, previous lowest was seven in 2008/09).
o All six of Liverpool’s Premier League defeats this season have been against sides currently outside the top seven, with their two home defeats coming against 17th placed Swansea and 13th placed Crystal Palace.
o Adam Lallana hasn’t scored or assisted a Premier League goal in 13 appearances in 2017 so far (1051 mins). Before January 1st this season, Lallana had seven goals and seven assists in 17 Premier League appearances (1205 mins).
Manchester United v Crystal Palace
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This match could be a lot of fun for neutrals if you trust even just a snippet of Manchester United boss Jose Mourinho’s comments after Wednesday night's 0-0 draw at Southampton.
"I hope you don't kill me when you see my team," the Portuguese said when looking ahead to the clash at home to Crystal Palace on the final day of the season.
"The next match Joel (Pereira, United's 20-year-old third choice goalkeeper) is playing his first match in the Premier League.
"I hope the fans on Sunday support the team, they forgive some naivety, they forgive some lack of confidence and I hope Big Sam (Allardyce, Palace's manager) shows he's a good friend and he goes slow. Tells (Wilfried) Zaha to go slow, leaves (Christian) Benteke at home; I hope he goes soft on us."
Mourinho’s comments always have to be taken with a dash of scepticism but he will be right to leave his key first-team regulars out of the squad with next week’s Europa League final against Ajax in Stockholm to look ahead to.
United are certain to finish in sixth no matter what the result against Palace so expect the likes of goalkeeper Pereira, defender Demetri Mitchell plus midfielders Scott McTominay, Matthew Willock and Josh Harrop to be in the mix for a starting place.
There will though be some experience in the team. Eric Bailly is sure to play as he misses the Europa League final through suspension and Paul Pogba could feature after missing United’s last couple of games while on compassionate leave following the death of his father.
Other first-team names will feature too so don’t expect this to be Palace taking to the field against a mix of United’s under-17 side, assorted members of the ticket office staff and anybody that can be dragged out of the hospitality section.
The price for Palace to get the three points has obviously been slashed during the week but I’d rather go for goals in this unusual contest.
There is certain to be a lack of cohesion to aspects of the Red Devils’ play and Palace arrive at Old Trafford after following up a 5-0 defeat at Manchester City with a 4-0 victory against Hull.
Three Palace matches this season have gone over the 5.5 goals mark, losing 5-4 at Swansea, 4-2 to Liverpool and drawing 3-3 against Hull, while four other games involving the Eagles have produced five.
I reckon it’s worth a roll of the dice on the 14/1 for over 5.5 goals in this contest. Palace’s defence can’t be trusted and United’s approach to proceedings means that an end-to-end joust is surely possible.
Prediction: Manchester United 3-3 Crystal Palace
Opta facts:
o Manchester United have played Crystal Palace 15 times in the Premier League and have never lost (W12 D3). The only side they have played more without tasting defeat is Charlton (16, W14 D2).
o Crystal Palace have lost 12 times to Manchester United in the Premier League, more than any other side they’ve faced.
o The Red Devils have won each of their seven Premier League home games against Crystal Palace; only against Wigan have they got a longer 100% record of such kind (8).
o Jose Mourinho is unbeaten against Sam Allardyce in the Premier League (W7 D3); only against Mark Hughes has the Manchester United manager won more top-flight contests (8).
o Manchester United have won 16 of their 24 final day matches in the Premier League (D6 L2) – the most wins in the competition.
o The Eagles have failed to win each of their five Premier League away trips on the final day (D2 L3), conceding 14 goals
o Jose Mourinho will be overseeing his 250th Premier League game as manager, making him the 22nd manager to achieve this feat. Of those to make this milestone, Mourinho will have the most wins (currently 157 from 249 games) and five more than Alex Ferguson (152/250).
o Regardless of the result of this match, Manchester United have won the fewest number of games in a single Premier League season (currently 17) - worse than their tally of wins in both 2013-14 and 2015-16 (19 wins).
o Even with a win, this will be Manchester United’s lowest total of home wins in the Premier League era (currently seven, with the previous low nine in 2013/14).
Southampton v Stoke City
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Southampton’s clash against Stoke is one of the main contenders to end up last on the Match of the Day running order in the small hours of Sunday night.
Eighth hosts 14th in the Premier League at St Mary's with the very hefty sums of prize money for finishing positions the only real non-pride-related incentive for either side.
Both of these clubs have also stuttered to the chequered flag to further whet the appetite for this showdown.
Southampton have only beaten second-bottom Middlesbrough in their last seven outings and Hull are the only club that Stoke have got the better of in their previous 10 games.
Saints boss Claude Puel is set to be wished the best with his future endeavours once the campaign is over. A harsh decision given a top half finish and EFL Cup final appearance will go on his CV but not one that should hinder the club’s continuing upward momentum.
Mark Hughes doesn’t have any immediate worries about his position in charge of Stoke but the Potters have stagnated this season and it won’t take much more of a downturn to join the relegation contenders in 12 months.
The Welshman will be given the chance to get things back on track and a win for Stoke would at least end the campaign on a positive note.
Southampton are priced up as unappealing favourites to get the victory but there isn’t anything at all to like about Stoke’s performances in the last couple of months so the upset doesn’t interest me either.
Back a low-scoring draw if you are after an interest but it isn’t an encounter for anybody outside of those directly involved in it to spend too long thinking about.
Prediction: Southampton 1-1 Stoke City
Opta facts:
o These two teams have met nine times in the Premier League; with them both winning two apiece and drawing the other five.
o This fixture has seen three red cards in the last five games in all competitions; including each of the last two Premier League contests.
o Southampton hosted Stoke City on the last day of the season in the 2012-13 campaign; when Rickie Lambert equalised after current Stoke City striker Peter Crouch opened the scoring for the Potters.
o Southampton have lost just once in 10 final day home games in the Premier League (W5 D4), a loss against Manchester United in 2005 which confirmed relegation for Southampton.
o After losing each of their first three Premier League final day contests, Stoke are unbeaten in their last five (W3 D2), including wins in each of the last three.
o Stoke will finish in the bottom half for the first season since 2012/13, which ended with Tony Pulis’ departure from the club.
o With one game to go, the Potters (41 points) are one point below their previous worst points tally in a full Premier League season (42 in 2012-13).
o Regardless of the result in this match, Southampton’s final Premier League points tally will be lower than in each of the last three seasons: 2015-16 (63), 2014-15 (60) and 2013-14 (56).
o Southampton have failed to score in five of their last seven Premier League matches, including the 0-0 draw with Manchester United on Wednesday night.
Swansea City v West Brom
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an unexpected lack of pressure for Swansea to endure on the final day of the season. It looked certain that the scrap to stay out of the final relegation place would go down to the wire just a matter of weeks ago but Swansea’s haul of 10 points out of 12 has seen them condemn Hull to the drop.
Hull only picked up four points during the same four-game period so it’s the Swans’ sprint to the finish that has ultimately seen them secure their top-flight status.
The visit of West Brom, Tony Pulis and all, is the treat for Swansea fans to enjoy on Sunday and I favour the hosts at just a shade of odds-against to end the season with another victory.
West Brom are winless in their last eight matches at the end of a successful campaign that could yet see them lose their long-held place in the top half of the standings.
Pulis will have the Baggies up for ending on a high and recent performances haven’t quite been as bad as the results suggest, as 1-0 defeats against Chelsea and Liverpool saw them run two of the division’s big guns close.
The big question over Swansea’s chance is whether they can keep up the intensity that they’ve displayed during the last month.
Star striker Fernando Llorente has dipped in and out form all season but he’s delivered when it matters with three goals during the crucial four-match unbeaten run for Paul Clement’s men.
The Spanish forward heads all of the goalscorer odds but I’m going to take a watching brief on this clash.
Prediction: Swansea City 1-0 West Brom
Opta facts:
o Swansea have won four of their five home Premier League encounters with West Brom (L1), hitting three past the Baggies on three occasions.
o In fact, Tony Pulis has yet to record a top-flight victory at Liberty Stadium (D1 L3), with his sides scoring just twice in four games.
o Salomon Rondon has scored four goals in his last two appearances against Swansea, including a hat-trick of headers in the reverse fixture back in December at the Hawthorns.
o The Swans have a mixed record on the final day of the Premier League season since they joined in 2011, winning and losing twice, whilst drawing the other.
o The Baggies have a dismal final day record in the Premier League, winning just once in 10 seasons (D6 L3), with that one victory coming in May 2005, when they started the day in 20th but managed to survive and finish in 17th.
o Gylfi Sigurdsson needs one more goal to record double figures for both goals and assists this season. He would be the first Swansea player to achieve this in a Premier League season (nine goals, 13 assists).
o Fernando Llorente has scored nine goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances for Swansea City at the Liberty Stadium.
o This is Llorente’s best season for league goals (14) since 2013-14 with Juventus in Serie A (16), while his best-ever return in a league season is 18 goals in 2010-11 with Athletic Club in La Liga.
o Since Paul Clement’s arrival at Swansea City the Swans have won 26 points in the Premier League, which is more than 12 other clubs in this period.
Watford v Manchester City
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City are virtually assured of a top-four finish and victory on the road at Watford will make sure of an automatic spot in next season's Champions League group stage.
City's three-point advantage and superior goal difference to Arsenal has the Gunners fighting what will prove to be a losing battle but fourth-placed Liverpool are only two points behind Pep Guardiola's men.
Finishing third or fourth is the difference between a two-legged qualifier or diving straight into the Champions League group stage so Guardiola knows that winning at Vicarage Road is a must.
That leads me to expect City to make a quick start and I really like the 5/2 for the most goals to be scored in the first half.
I reckon the visitors can put this match to bed before the break and they've netted twice in the opening period of both of their last couple of outings.
City are unbeaten in their previous seven league games and I don't give much hope to the upset, especially with Watford confirming this will be Walter Mazzarri's last match as manager.
The Italian has done a creditable job in charge of the Hornets but a five-match losing run has ultimately put the stamp on his departure after just one season in charge.
Rumours of dressing room unrest persist so I think it's safe to say we won't see a final flourish from his squad to send Mazzarri out in style.
I think City can get among the goals but my concern is they will step off the gas if the victory is assured.
Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero could make this a very long afternoon for Watford but I'm expecting the majority of action to come early during this match.
That makes the 12/5 for the most goals before the break my best bet.
Prediction: Watford 0-3 Manchester City
Opta facts:
o Watford have failed to beat Manchester City in their last seven league encounters (D2 L5), losing each of the previous three Premier League contests.
o The Citizens have scored 2+ goals in six of the last nine league clashes between the two sides, including exactly two goals in each of the last three.
o Sergio Aguero has scored four goals in his last three games against Watford in all competitions, including an FA Cup hat-trick against the Hornets in January 2013.
o The Hornets are unbeaten in their three Premier League final day matches (W1 D2), with all three coming at Vicarage Road.
Posted at 0800 BST on 19/05/17.
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