Our tipster Andy Schooler believes those hoping for a Manchester derby goalfest will be left disappointed on Thursday.
Recommended bets: Premier League
Click here for our transparent tipping record.
Manchester City v Manchester United (2000 BST, Sky Sports 1)
Both Manchester clubs playing on a Thursday night. A portent regarding next season’s Europa League perhaps?
That may be a Scouser’s dream but it remains a possibility given the state of the top-four race.
You can argue that the current standings have set this one up for a real ding-dong battle - United can actually climb above their neighbours and into the top four with victory in this one.
But there are plenty of reasons to suggest that won’t be the case.
First United’s schedule is hitting its peak, the Thursday-Sunday grind continuing for the next fortnight with a Europa League semi-final with Celta Vigo looming.
Many feel the Red Devils’ best route into next season’s Champions League is via the continental competition and the bookies now agree too.
So how Jose Mourinho approaches this game has to have an element of doubt surrounding it, particularly with key men now on a mounting injury list.
Several changes from game to game can surely be expected from now until the end of the season – United will hope to play nine between now and May 24.
While Paul Pogba is out of this one, their biggest miss is undoubtedly Zlatan Ibrahimovic, the only man in their squad who has scored on anything like a regular basis this term.
Their ability to dominate games yet not win them has reached almost legendary proportions now and while many will point out most of those problems have come at Old Trafford – they have won 10 away games and just six at home – a look at how they have performed against the best teams on their travels doesn’t make for good reading.
The only team in the top half they’ve beaten away is West Brom, while a look at their goal figures show they are the lowest scorers in the top seven but also have the second-best defence (behind Spurs), one strengthened by the return of Antonio Valencia and sitting midfielder Ander Herrera.
City have also had their problems against the elite, winning just one of nine against the so-called Big Six. The home figures in those games are no wins, three draws and one defeat.
David Silva, always a major part of their attack, is a major doubt after limping out of the FA Cup semi-final – one which ended in a demoralising defeat. A trophyless first season under Pep Guardiola now looks certain. At least, Sergio Aguero is set to play, while Gabriel Jesus could be on the bench. He’s fit again but far from 100 per cent, according to his boss.
Essentially I can see those hoping for a goalfest to be disappointed.
To add weight to the case for few goals, just two of the last six between these two have seen both teams score, while it’s also two from six when it comes to over 2.5 goals.
Both of those bets are worthy of consideration but I’m instead going to back the draw at what looks a chunky price of 14/5 (Stan James BetBright).
Such a result is far from disastrous for either side – local pride is kept intact, another point is added in the top-four race and both could then pass Liverpool by winning their other game in hand.
City are unbeaten in 11 at home (all competitions) with only Chelsea having won at the Etihad this season.
United don’t lose many either – it’s now one loss in 20 for them – and while they’ve got injury problems at the back it hasn’t really fazed them in recent weeks and there looks to be every chance they aren’t facing a full-strength City attack here.
Jose Mourinho showed his ability to pick the right tactics for an occasion against Chelsea recently and I’d expect another plan here.
I’m tempted by 0-0 at 12/1 (or no goalscorer at 11s if you want own-goal protection) but will take the safer option of any draw at 14/5.
For those seeking a bigger price, a small bet on Vincent Kompany at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair) in the man of the match market looks appealing.
Respected and much-loved by the media (Sky Sports’ pundit will decide the award), Kompany has been working his way back in recent weeks. If the game does unfold as I suspect it might, the Belgian looks sure to be in the running as long as he produces the sort of polished performance for which he’s long been known.
Of course, there’s always the danger with the fragile Kompany that he doesn’t play but if he doesn’t set foot on the field, you’ll just get your money back.
Prediction: Man City 0-0 Man Utd
Opta facts:
o The last time these two sides met on a Thursday in the Premier League was in November 1994, with Manchester United winning 5-0 thanks to an Andrei Kanchelskis hat-trick.
o Jose Mourinho has failed to win any of his last four Premier League games against Manchester City (D2 L2) – this after winning six successive top-flight encounters with the Citizens between December 2005 and February 2014.
o Jose Mourinho has won just four of his 18 meetings with Pep Guardiola (D6 L8), but the Portuguese won the last encounter with his Spanish opponent – a 1-0 win in the EFL Cup back in October.
o Pep Guardiola could become the fourth manager to win both home and away Manchester derbies in a debut top-flight season after John Bentley, Sven-Göran Eriksson and Manuel Pellegrini.
o Wayne Rooney has scored 11 goals in Manchester derbies (all comps) – more than any other player in the history of this fixture – but hasn’t scored in any of his last five.
o Sergio Aguero has now scored in five successive Premier League appearances for Manchester City and could equal his best such-run in the competition with a goal in this match (six appearances in a row between April-May 2016).
o Aguero has scored eight goals in 10 competitive appearances for Manchester City against Manchester United but has failed to score in his last two games against them.
o Manchester City have only lost one of their 15 home league games this season, but only neighbours Man Utd (9) have drawn more home games than them in the top flight this season (6).
o Only Alan Shearer (190) has scored in more different Premier League games than Wayne Rooney (149 – level with Frank Lampard & Andrew Cole).
o Manchester United are now unbeaten in 23 successive league matches and if they avoid defeat in this match they’ll equal their longest-ever unbeaten run in the top-flight within a single season (24 games in 2010-11).
Posted at 1520 BST on 26/04/17.
