Premier League betting tips: Chelsea v Soton preview

Recommended bet:

2pts Oriol Romeu to be carded at 19/10 - 4 bookings in last 5 games & sure to have have his work cut out in defensive midfield role

Chelsea v Southampton (1945 BST)

Chelsea led the Premier League by 10 points with 10 games to play.

Ahead of Tuesday’s clash with Southampton, that lead is down to four and there are still six matches remaining for both the Blues and rivals Tottenham.

The need to steady the ship is strong, especially with a trip to Everton (beaten just once at Goodison this season) awaiting at the weekend.

Antonio Conte’s men took a big step towards doing that on Saturday by beating Tottenham 4-2 in the FA Cup semi-final but no points were on offer there and defeating Southampton, a side with little to play for, will be seen as paramount.

Conte himself suggested as much with his team selection at Wembley. Eden Hazard, one of the league’s form players, and Diego Costa were both benched, presumably with this match very much in mind.

Their replacements stepped up to the plate against Spurs, landing a blow which must also have caused some mental damage as they too prepare to return to league affairs – the North Londoners head to Crystal Palace on Wednesday and anything but a Chelsea win here will really open the door for them.

Chelsea  should prevail though. They are averaging more than 2.5 goals a game at home this season and come up against a side who are simply shipping too many goals.

In their last 11 matches, Saints have conceded five against Arsenal, three to West Ham, Manchester United, Watford and Manchester City and two v Spurs and Swansea.

They’ve still managed to win games in that run, indeed three of their five away Premier League wins this season have come in their last four road trips.

However, the quality West Brom, West Ham and Sunderland is not what they will be facing at Stamford Bridge.

Sitting ninth on 40 points, Southampton are not going down and neither will they be playing in Europe next season. Bar potential financial bonuses, it’s hard to see what the motivation is for the run-in and despite a decent record in this fixture since their return to the top flight (one win, two draws and one defeat) I can see no real reason to consider anything other than a home victory.

With Hazard flying right now, backing him to score in a home win is a bet which will tempt many.

The Belgian’s strike at Wembley at the weekend was his fourth goal in as many games. He’s 6/4 to score in a Chelsea success, although 7/5 for Hazard to score at any time (something he managed in the reverse fixture) is probably a better price given it takes any Southampton heroics out of the equation.

However, the bet I’m looking at here does not relate to the final score but rather the way the match is likely to be played out.

Southampton’s Oriol Romeu is back from suspension for this one and looks set to line up in his defensive midfield role against his former club.

With Chelsea likely to enjoy plenty of possession but also very adept at breaking on their opponents, the Spaniard is likely to have his work cut out. Certainly Southampton like to try to get their full-backs forward and it’s not difficult to see him being exposed at various points in the match.

Far from averse to a slide tackle, Romeu has already been booked 11 times this season and the 19/10 about him earning another caution looks worth taking.

Four of those 11 have come in his last five appearances and it’s also highly relevant that players in a similar role are being consistently booked against the Blues of late.

In Chelsea’s last seven games, Ander Herrera (Man Utd, twice), Joe Allen (Stoke), Luka Milivojevic (Palace), Fabian Delph (Man City) have all picked up yellow cards against Chelsea.

That’s not a run to put be put down to co-incidence, more the way that Chelsea go about their business with the livewire Hazard always receiving the ball in that area in front of an opposing defence, while defensive midfielders are often being asked to help deal with the threat of wing-back Victor Moses and Marcos Alonso.

Romeu can join that list in this game and help us to a decent profit.

Prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Southampton

Opta facts:

o Chelsea have lost just one of their last seven Premier League games at Stamford Bridge against Saints (W3 D3 L1), though this was last time out (1-3 loss in October 2015).

o The Blues have scored in 15 of their 17 Premier League home games against Southampton, only failing to score in April 1995 (0-2 defeat) and December 2002 (0-0 draw).

o Diego Costa is now on a five-match run without a goal in the Premier League; his longest goalless streak in league competition since a six-game run between December 2012 and January 2013 in the Spanish Liga with Atlético Madrid.

o Southampton have won three of their last four Premier League away matches (W3 D0 L1) – more than they had in their previous 12 league games on the road in 2016-17 (W2 D3 L7).

o Chelsea have gone 10 Premier League games without keeping a clean sheet for the first time since December 1996 (13 games).

o Eden Hazard has been involved in 14 goals in his last 17 Premier League appearances at Stamford Bridge for Chelsea (11 goals, three assists).

Posted at 1430 BST on 24/04/17.