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Joe Townsend's predictions

Premier League tips, best bets and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 7

By Joe Townsend
12:31 · SAT October 05, 2024

Football betting tips: Premier League

Saturday 12:30

2pts Daichi Kamada 2+ tackles in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool at 11/8 (bet365)

0.5pt Kamada to be shown a card at 7/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Palace to beat Liverpool at 11/2 (William Hill)

0.5pt Draw in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool at 19/5 (Unibet)

Saturday 15:00

2pts 24+ match fouls in Arsenal vs Southampton at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt Man City to beat Fulham and both teams to score at 7/4 (Sky Bet, Betway)

1pt West Ham to beat Ipswich at 5/6 (William Hill)

0.5pt Kristoffer Ajer to score anytime in Brentford vs Wolves at 16/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)

0.5pt Ethan Pinnock to score anytime at 16/1 (bet365)

Saturday 17:30

1pt Under 2.5 goals in Everton vs Newcastle at 13/10 (bet365, Betfair)

Sunday 14:00

2pts Aston Villa to beat Manchester United at 13/10 (Unibet)

1pt Under 2.5 goals in Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest at 8/5 (Unibet)

Sunday 16:30

1pt James Maddison to score or assist in Tottenham vs Brighton (16:30) at 29/20 (Unibet)

0.5pt Mickey van de Ven to score or assist at 7/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

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  • For one week only, Joe Townsend steps in for the holidaying Jake Osgathorpe to deliver his best bets and Super 6 predictions for this weekend's Premier League action.

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

Although Crystal Palace haven't started the season in the way they would have liked (W0 D3 L3) this should be an interesting contest.

Late moves in and out before the transfer window closed left them lacking the fluidity they showed during the final seven games of last term, an unbeaten run which saw them take 19 points from a possible 21, scoring five times against West Ham and Aston Villa, and four against Manchester United.

Three points from six matches is far from a crisis and according to expected goals (xG) data, no Premier League team is underperforming their expected points (xP) more than Oliver Glasner's side. Such a small sample size of games can make underlying numbers misleading without proper context, but essentially Palace are not a million miles away.

Arne Slot

Liverpool have made an excellent start under Arne Slot, winning eight of nine games in all competitions. They laboured to wins in their past two outings though - 2-1 at Wolves and 2-0 over Bologna - and in recent years these players have struggled against Palace.

It was victory for Glasner's team at Anfield in April that ended any faint hopes of Jurgen Klopp departing with a league title, while earlier in the campaign Roy Hodgson's men were cruising to three points before Jordan Ayew was controversially sent off at Selhurst, triggering a Liverpool comeback that was completed deep in stoppage time.

In 2022/23 both meetings ended in draws.

This will be Liverpool's seventh game in 21 days since the international break. It will be just Palace's third in the past 18.

Oliver Glasner

Palace are the longest price they've been to win at home against Liverpool in the past three seasons. With the double chance price not there I'm prepared to split my stake and dutch both CRYSTAL PALACE WIN and the DRAW at 11/2 and 19/5 respectively.

Daichi Kamada

Part of the advantage for Palace will be a fresh midfield versus a tired one, with it the one area of the pitch Liverpool lack the required depth to rotate.

High-energy midfielders are a feature of Glasner's team, and taking DAICHI KAMADA TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at 11/8 and the 7/1 on offer for KAMADA TO BE SHOWN A CARD are both advised.

The Japan midfielder is making quite literally twice as many fouls per 90 minutes (3) in this season's Premier League than he is tackles, yet hasn't been booked in the top flight since opening weekend, although he was shown a card in the Carabao Cup against QPR.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Arsenal vs Southampton

Southampton boss Russell Martin didn't hold back after their 3-1 defeat on Monday, saying he was "hurt" by the mentality of his players and "didn't recognise our team." Capitulating at Bournemouth doesn't bode well for a trip to Arsenal.

Martin's accusation was that his players made life too easy for their opponents by failing to do the dirty work.

“Bournemouth make 20 fouls, we make 10, I think that sums up the whole game. It’s impossible if you’re not going to fight."

It was actually 19-12 on that score but fair enough Russ, we hear you.

The 31 fouls in the game was actually above par for a Southampton game this season, with their matches averaging just over 27. There has been one outlier at 17, remove that and each game has seen between 25 and 32, at a revised average of 29.4.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta shakes hands with Riccardo Calafiori

Arsenal aren't shy either, with their matches seeing 21.8 fouls on average.

Given these statistics, the fact it has landed in half the Gunners' fixtures, five of Saints' six, and the likely attitude Martin will send Southampton out with, taking the 11/8 about OVER 23.5 FOULS is advised.

As for the match itself, it's hard to see past a straightforward home win.

Include two Carabao Cup ties at Sky Bet Championship strugglers Cardiff and relegation rivals Everton, and Southampton have conceded 18 goals in eight matches (2.25 per game). It's nothing new as despite finishing the regular season fourth, they had only the 14th best defensive record in the second tier last season.

One point after six games, scoring just three and keeping no clean sheets.

Easy pickings for Arsenal.

Score prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Brentford vs Wolves

World record-breakers Brentford - who’d have thought it? A goal inside the first minute for three successive games has certainly earned them plenty of attention. They didn’t win any of those matches, losing at Manchester City and Tottenham before drawing at home to West Ham, but come on - world record!

I jest, but those goals were no accident, a product of the Bees' attention to detail when it comes to set-pieces, something they consider the kick-off to be.

Thomas Frank

Last season was one of regression in terms of points as Thomas Frank openly admitted they were trying to develop a more expansive style of play.

A bi-product was Brentford struggling to be as much of a threat from dead-ball situations, scoring just 10 to rank mid-table in the Premier League; in 2022/23 they were leaders on 19, three clear of the rest. That won't have gone unnoticed, and hard work in the summer is clearly already having an impact.

Defending these situations is a clear weakness of a struggling Wolves team, with an opposition centre-back finding the net in each of their last three league games.

Expect the Bees to be a real threat whenever they have the opportunity to put the ball in the box. Centre-backs KRISTOFFER AJER and ETHAN PINNOCK each scored twice in the league last season and are available to back TO SCORE ANYTIME at 16/1.

Ajer has been the focal point of Brentford’s record-breaking early goals, sent forward as a striker immediately to cause havoc in the opposition backline.

He may be the man to find the net himself this week, or he could just continue to be a nuance, allowing more space for team-mate Pinnock to take advantage.

Score prediction: Brentford 2-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Leicester vs Bournemouth

I can't argue with the 8/13 and 1/2 respectively on offer for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at The King Power on Saturday.

Neither side has kept a Premier League clean sheet this season, with Leicester conceding the third-most goals (12 in six games) and allowing the most expected goals against (xGA) in the division at 12.75.

Bournemouth have shown plenty of positive signs and were impressive against Southampton on Monday, but their opponents wilted. A match to avoid for me.

Score prediction: Leicester 1-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Manchester City vs Fulham

Pep Guardiola
Pep Guardiola's side are struggling to keep clean sheets

Fulham have made a strong start, unbeaten since an opening day defeat at Old Trafford and scoring in each of the seven subsequent matches in all competitions.

Back-to-back wins at home to Newcastle and away at Nottingham Forest are impressive, but they have had a fairly straightforward fixture list. Until now.

Such is Manchester City's home record under Pep Guardiola that seeing them priced as long as 1/4 for a league game at The Etihad is a rarity. What hasn't been quite so reliable is their defence, with City conceding in seven of their 10 fixtures in all competitions this season, and five of their six in the league.

It's been the case for a while, especially at home, with 68% of their top-flight home matches last term and 63% in 22/23 seeing BOTH TEAMS SCORE, a huge increase compared with the 53% when playing away. It's very much worth combining BTTS and a MANCHESTER CITY WIN at a standout 7/4.

The manual double of a City win and both teams score comes out at around 2.30, so the 2.75 (7/4) represents tremendous value.

Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

West Ham vs Ipswich

I'm a fan of the hot take. Not joining in with them, but rocking back in my chair and chewing over the reaction I'm reading, watching or hearing about. Being smug.

WEST HAM and Ipswich are separated by one point and one place but in very different situations. The Hammers are awful, and the Tractor Boys are amazing.

West Ham manager Julen Lopetegui

It’s not been a great start for Julen Lopetegui, but there has certainly been an overreaction. The same can be said for Kieran McKenna's, but in the opposite fashion. Escaping from Brighton and Southampton with fortunate draws gives things an altogether different complexion.

This boils down to a simple market overreaction.

When hosting newly-promoted trio Sheffield United (4/9), Burnley (8/13) and Luton (5/6) last season, the Hammers were priced markedly shorter for victory other than by kick-off against the latter in May, when there was a rush to back the Hatters as they battled relegation while West Ham had nothing to play for.

David Moyes's side took seven points from those contests, and having had a full week on the training ground to get to grips with his squad, we should expect Lopetegui to send out a much better organised team capable of securing a HOME WIN.

Score prediction: West Ham 2-0 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Everton vs Newcastle

Jarrad Branthwaite everton

It was no shock that Everton's first win of the season coincided with the return of Jarrad Branthwaite. The centre-back was outstanding in his first appearance of the campaign, helping restrict Crystal Palace to just 0.95 xG en route to a 2-1 victory.

The Toffees' sticky start has helped push in the overs to 4/7 for the visit of Newcastle, giving us the opportunity to back UNDER 2.5 GOALS at an inviting 13/10.

Last weekend was the first time in three matches an Everton game hadn't gone unders, with Sean Dyche's team now conceding one goal in three successive games, seemingly beginning to fix their defensive issues.

Five of Newcastle's eight fixtures have seen under 2.5 goals, with two of the other three only just sneaking over with three goals scored.

Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

Erik ten Hag

Somehow, Manchester United beat Aston Villa twice last season.

Unai Emery's side dominated at Old Trafford on Boxing Day, racing into an early 2-0 lead which they held until the hour mark. The first of what is now a near-weekly proclamation that "he may just have saved Erik ten Hag's job!" was then triggered by Alejandro Garnacho's brace, and Rasmus Hojlund's first Premier League goal after five months of trying.

It began a great run of form for the Norwegian striker, who went on to score eight times in eight games. One of the final goals came in a smash-and-grab 2-1 victory at Villa Park in early February.

Like so much of the Ten Hag era, these were all false dawns.

Harry Maguire was the latest player to #SaveErik with a stoppage-time equaliser in Porto on Thursday, a 3-3 draw 24 hours after Emery's side became the first team to beat Bayern Munich in the group stage of the Champions League since 2017.

Jhon Duran

It's a head-scratcher that most firms have VILLA exactly the same price TO WIN as back in February, with some offering longer odds at a best price of 13/10.

Villa have dropped only four points so far this season, with their only defeat coming in a home match against Arsenal that they really ought not have lost.

With Ollie Watkins in wonderful form (four goals and two assists in six league games) and Jhon Duran seeming to score every time he touches the ball, it's hard to hold out much hope for a dysfunctional United team that has conceded two or more goals on four occasions already this season.

BuildABet @ 19/1

  • Aston Villa to win
  • Jhon Duran to score anytime
  • Ollie Watkins to score anytime
  • Bruno Fernandes to be carded

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

Maresca

Have Chelsea turned the corner or will they remain rather unpredictable for a little while yet?

Successive easy midweek games against Barrow and Gent have contributed to the hype regarding Enzo Maresca's side, but in fairness five straight wins since the international break with 17 goals scored is impressive stuff.

Nuno Espirito Santo will not make life as easy as some of Maresca's previous counterparts, though. Six of Forest's seven games in all competitions have seen UNDER 2.5 GOALS yet it is 8/5 to happen again at Stamford Bridge.

Both Chelsea's home league games - against Manchester City and Crystal Palace - have gone unders, while Forest showed they can stifle high-class opposition by winning 1-0 at Liverpool just three weeks ago.

Score prediction: Chelsea 1-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Brighton vs Tottenham

This should be fun.

Cole Palmer benefited greatly from Brighton's high-risk strategy last weekend as he scored as many goals in a madcap first half at Stamford Bridge as Albion had conceded across their opening five (unbeaten) Premier League games.

Chelsea played it smart, ceding possession to Fabian Hurzeler's side by allowing them 63% of the ball and pouncing on the counter attack, learning from Brighton's previous two opponents, who both scored two goals - Nottingham Forest in the league and Wolves in the Carabao Cup.

Ten goals were scored across Tottenham's two meetings with Brighton last season, and unsurprisingly anything goals-related is painfully short. There is plenty to go at in terms of player involvement though, with two Spurs players piquing interest.

MICKEY VAN DE VEN, now the fastest player in Premier League history, was granted the freedom of Old Trafford to set up Tottenham's opening goal in their 3-0 win at Manchester United last Sunday, registering his second ASSIST in just five league games having provided none in 2023/24.

Last season he SCORED three goals in 30 appearances, and while the 12/1 for him to find the net tempted, 7/1 for a GOAL OR ASSIST is preferred.

James Maddison in action for Tottenham

JAMES MADDISON is the other player we're backing, at 29/20 for him to provide a GOAL OR ASSIST.

Over the past three (and a bit) seasons the England midfielder has registered a goal involvement every 137 minutes, providing three already this term, 13 in an injury-disrupted opening season at Spurs and 49 for a struggling Leicester side across his final two campaigns at the King Power.

Maddison is also likely to inherit penalty duties in the expected absence of injured Tottenham captain Heung-min Son, a huge boost to this angle.

Most of all though, he simply looks back to his best.

Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Super 6 predictions for round 10

  • Arsenal 3-0 Southampton
  • Manchester City 3-1 Fulham
  • West Ham 2-0 Ipswich
  • Everton 1-1 Newcastle
  • Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester United
  • Brighton 1-2 Tottenham

Odds correct at 1500 BST (04/10/24)

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