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Premier League: Team-by-team xG analysis on the 2022/23 season
Liam Kelly picks out a data point for each Premier League team that encapsulates their season thus far, is of influence heading into 2023, or is just downright interesting.
- Published before resumption of Premier League
Arsenal
100
Arsenal's Premier League title charge must be taken seriously at this point, holding a five-point lead at the top of the table with 14 games played.
While a 100% home record for Mikel Arteta's side is notable in and of itself, with the Gunners averaging 2.65 expected goals for (xGF) and 0.78 expected goals against (xGA) per game in six matches at Emirates Stadium, the fact they have 13 of their 25 fixtures remaining at home is sure to be the foundation of their title aspirations.
Games against Tottenham and Liverpool are already out of the way when it comes to hosting, too, so a deep run at challenging Manchester City looks on the cards if Arsenal continue in the same vein.
Manchester City
18
The story of Manchester City's opening 14 games has been saturated by one man — Erling Haaland.
Rather overshadowed by the World Cup, the Premier League break gave us a good chance to digest just how incredible a start Haaland has made in Manchester.
Haaland's 18 league goals have come from just 52 shots equating to a massive 12.03 xG. That's 0.35 goals and 0.23 xG per shot!
On course to set a Premier League record for goals scored in a single season, it will be interesting to see if Haaland is helped or hindered by the pause in play; striking after less than 10 minutes of City's return to action against Liverpool in the Carabao Cup suggests it could well be the former.
Newcastle
+0.2
Being in the conversation for a Champions League place at this point in the season is an impressive achievement for Eddie Howe's Newcastle, despite the heavy investment in the club.
Newcastle need to improve performances on the road to stay in that discussion, however.
Although it appears they can beat anyone at St James' Park, understandably gaining 18 points given their +11.6 expected goal difference (xGD), results are far better than underlying numbers suggest away from home.
Sporting a +0.2 xGD on their travels, Newcastle's results will falter if the same path is followed.
Tottenham
+4.5
It's been a rather uninspiring start to the campaign for Spurs from a performance perspective, but they do sit in a promising position heading into 2023.
Set-piece guru Gianni Vio has undoubtedly played a huge part in Tottenham's season thus far. Indeed, they've scored 10 goals and conceded just two from set-plays this term and possess the best expected goal difference in the league from such situations (+4.50 xGD).
If Antonio Conte can resolve some obvious open-play issues, they'll be a force soon enough.
Manchester United
8
With Cristiano Ronaldo, the drain on Erik ten Hag's Manchester United society, finally out of the picture, it's time for their number eight to get his flowers.
Bruno Fernandes has been flourishing in the absence of his compatriot this season, simply overshadowed by the circus the Ronaldo has caused. The Portuguese midfielder has been a creative force for a United team that have looked much more fluid.
Fernandes has recorded 3.27 expected assists (xA), despite having just one actual assist, and a total of 47 shot-creating actions from live-ball situations, second only to Kevin De Bruyne in that metric — a solid yardstick in any aspect of creativity.
Liverpool
37
Liverpool's chances of challenging for the title are all but over after a disastrous start to the campaign, lagging 15 points off the pace at the restart of the Premier League.
The Reds' weakness has been rather obvious, allowing teams to create plenty of scoring opportunities. And good ones at that.
In 14 games, Jürgen Klopp's side have conceded 37 big chances to opponents, shipping 23.2 xGA with an average of 0.17 per shot.
Alisson is perhaps the only player to reasonably escape criticism, making big saves in allowing 17 goals from such chances.
Brighton
7
It's amazing what Brighton can do when they simply finish their scoring chances at even a barely respectable clip, sitting pretty in seventh place despite the unexpected change of manager.
Abiding by tradition at a particularly tradition-laden time of year, Brighton are still underperforming their solid expected goals for (xGF) total of 25.9 by scoring 23 times.
Just think of the possibilities if Brighton exceed their xG created for a prolonged period!
Chelsea
17.7
Thomas Tuchel's dismissal is enough to describe Chelsea's desperately disappointing start to the season.
Graham Potter's arrival hasn't elicited a huge amount of change thus far, though it will take time for the former Brighton boss to improve a club with a long injury list. Chief among his tasks must be their problem with chance creation.
Chelsea have recorded just 17.7 expected goals for (xGF) across their 14 Premier League matches, an average of 1.26 xGF per game. Only eight teams have posted a lower number than that.
Fulham
9
Fulham's underlying numbers in defence are a cause for concern, allowing an average of 2.15 expected goals against (xGA) per game in the league this season. No team has conceded a higher average.
Thankfully for Fulham fans, Marco Silva's side have performed well enough in attack to mitigate their weakness and sit in the top half at present. Aleksandar Mitrović leads that unit with distinction, continuing his record-breaking Championship form and proving he can do it at the top level.
In scoring nine goals from 9.03 xG in 15 games, Mitrović and is fellow Fulham forward players are overcoming some shoddy defensive displays from the team.
Brentford
17
If he wasn't already, Brentford's number 17, Ivan Toney, has become the Bees' headline act this season.
After an excellent start to the Premier League campaign, the 26-year-old striker has been charged with a string of alleged breaches of the Football Association’s betting rules.
Toney has scored 10 goals from 11.12 expected goals (xG) this term, sitting behind only Erling Haaland in that metric, and has been vital in creating for his team.
If Brentford are to be without him for any time this term, it will be a huge loss.
Crystal Palace
124
I'm sure many will agree watching Crystal Palace is much more entertaining these days.
Patrick Vieira has successfully ushered in a new era at Selhurst Park, one that is very different to that of his predecessor. Obviously comfortable working with youth and championing exuberance, his players are rewarding the Premier League legend.
The Palace renovation has seen many express themselves more freely, perhaps evidenced by the fact that the club rank second in the league with 124 successful dribbles per FBRef, almost exclusively from their attacking unit.
Eberechi Eze (27 successful dribbles), Wilfried Zaha (25) and Michael Olise (18) are among those clearly enjoying life at Vieira's Palace.
Aston Villa
7
Things are looking up for Aston Villa. New manager Unai Emery started very well before the World Cup break, beating both Manchester United and Brighton to move away from the relegation zone.
Change was certainly required. Villa had no pattern of play or direction under Steven Gerrard, displayed definitively in their attacking numbers.
Villa scored just seven goals (13.3 xG) in their 11 Premier League games with Gerrard in charge, one of which came direct from a corner!
Leicester
11
Make no mistake about it, Leicester would be at the depths of the Premier League table if it wasn't for the efforts of one James Maddison, who has 11 goal involvements already this season.
There've been some crackers (no pun intended), too, with Maddison scoring seven times from 2.34 xG, but his creativity is just as impressive, already racking up four assists (2.58 xA) fifteen games into the campaign.
Somebody gift this man some help this Christmas.
Bournemouth
-13.0
Bournemouth will undoubtedly be happy with their current position of 14th, but the Cherries should be extremely concerned by their underlying numbers.
They possess the worst expected goal difference in the Premier League at present (-13.0 xGD) and by some distance.
Averaging 0.94 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.81 expected goals against (xGA) is relegation-worthy, making the three-point gap to the drop zone look a little slim.
Leeds
9.7
Where else to search for proof of the chaos that Leeds provide than the trusty metric of passes per defensive action (PPDA).
Jesse March's side currently hold the lowest Opta Analyst PPDA figure in the Premier League at 9.7, pressing their opponents in a furious manner that seemingly guarantees chances at both ends.
Who would want to be a Leeds fan considering the nervousness they evoke? Certainly not me. Under any circumstance. Ever.
West Ham
3
In what has been a far from satisfactory start to the season for David Moyes and West Ham, the four points gained on the road is perhaps most worrying. It's clear where the issue lies in that area, too.
The Hammers have managed to post good underlying numbers in their seven away fixtures, with only Arsenal and Manchester City posting a better expected goal difference (xGD) when travelling, but the three goals scored from 11.1 xG is unacceptable at this level.
Everton
6.31
Continuing a trend from last season, Everton are incredibly prone to allowing opposition chances from set plays.
A tendency to concede scoring opportunities is far from ideal when you're struggling with chance creation and scoring goals, too. Frank Lampard's side have netted just 11 times from a total of 18.7 expected goals (xG).
Indeed, Everton lead the league in xG conceded from set-pieces, shipping 6.31 thus far per Opta Analyst. They've only allowed three goals, but it's certainly a weakness to keep in mind as they fight to stay in the top tier.
Nottingham Forest
25
Signs of life deeper into the season were perhaps predictable for Nottingham Forest, who were incredibly busy in the summer transfer window and have struggled to find a formula since.
Only one team that haven't changed manager this season have used more than the 25 players that Steve Cooper has used this term, as good a sign as any that searching for the spark in the midst of a relegation battle is no fun.
Eight points from the last 15 available is progress, but they'll have to improve further to have a shot at survival.
Southampton
-7.2
Southampton find themselves in a spot of bother a little earlier than usual, 19th in the table at the pause in play and ushering in new manager Nathan Jones.
Jones has a fair amount to fix at both ends of the pitch, but perhaps most concerning for the former Luton boss is the form of goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu.
Based on FBRef's post-shot expected goals (PSxG) figures, the Saints stopper has allowed 7.2 goals more than expected with the saves he has failed to make, the worst of any keeper in the Premier League.
Wolves
8
Scoring eight goals in 15 games, two of which have come from the penalty spot, goes some way to explain the predicament Wolves are in, sitting bottom of the table at Christmas.
Those goals have come from a total of 16.6 expected goals (xG). Underperforming on poor metrics is a recipe for disaster.
There's plenty of time for Wolves to recover, but they'll need to be much better at both creating chances and scoring goals under Julen Lopetegui.
