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Free football betting analysis and tips: Premier League Talking Points | Manchester derby, Wolves and West Brom
Tom Carnduff has the main takeaways and betting pointers from the latest Premier League action.
Are you not entertained?
No, we're not.
The latest edition of the Manchester derby was a dull 0-0 draw with neither side offering anything that would suggest they were up to winning that game.
Remarkably, City found a way to get their xG above 1.0 (1.27), despite having no real chances that stood out as significant threats on goal. Both goalkeepers having two saves to make is a better description of how the game went. It's one that nobody will be revisiting anytime soon.
What is more confusing is Pep Guardiola's lack of substitutions in a second-half where City looked the bigger threat as it went on. Ferran Torres came on for Riyad Mahrez with 66 minutes played but apart from that, little was done despite obvious talent on the bench. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was also guilty of failing to utilise substitutes with Anthony Martial replacing Mason Greenwood in his only move on 74 minutes.
The one thing of note was how City were able to dribble their way through the United defence and get themselves into dangerous positions. The game that was playing out would have suited Phil Foden or Bernardo Silva but both were left watching on, seemingly warming-up for large parts of the second-half.
It was also disappoint to see how nervy both sides appeared. Winning didn't look to be the aim, the focus was more on ensuring they weren't on the losing side. For two teams who are sitting in upper mid-table and looking to play catch-up, that is an approach that has cost valuable points either way.
A positive for City is the fact that their next game sees them welcome West Brom, a team struggling at the bottom and one with a very poor defence. When it comes to opportunities to flex your muscles, particularly after a disappointing trip across Manchester, they couldn't have asked for a better one.
They will do just that, you know City will score plenty and this will be completely forgotten about, but there will always be the feeling that it's a missed opportunity to send a bit of a message to the rest of the division. The best course of action for now though, is if we all just grab a drink and forget this game ever happened.
Credit to the City defence
Ok, it was an awful contest but a word on City's defence before we move on. They have now kept a clean sheet in six consecutive games in all competitions, which is a pretty decent achievement considering they faced this strong United attack and two Champions League contests.
That run of six clean sheets has actually equalled a club record and they do have a great chance to break it when they face West Brom next time out. It's 8/13 that the home side win to nil, which you struggle to argue against on the current form of both teams involved.
Despite a couple of close chances, it's been a deserved run too with the way they are playing. Over these six games, the highest xG figure posted by an opponent was the 0.65 for United. There have even been two occasions where the number was below 0.10 (Olympiakos' 0.08 and Porto's 0.04).
It will be interesting to see if John Stones continues his run in the team or Aymeric Laporte comes in if they rotate. It could be said that, on this current form and good run, Stones is now the preferred centre-back partner to Ruben Dias and it would be harsh to drop him based on that.
There isn't too much you can do with it in terms of betting, although Stones could well be a strong consideration for Sky Sports Fantasy Football teams considering both the clean sheets and his passing figures. His last three starts have seen over 80 completed passes in each (97 v Burnley, 109 v Fulham, 87 v United).
Wasteful Wolves drop more points
The Premier League's early kick-off saw Aston Villa edge past Wolves in a game where cards dominated. Both sides had a man sent off while Mike Dean showed 11 yellows in total.
Anwar El Ghazi's late penalty won it but Wolves will be left annoyed that it wasn't them on the right side of the result. As was the case last season, we saw them enjoy the better of the opportunities in the second-half but they couldn't find a way to beat Emiliano Martinez.
Villa won the xG battle, but that is hugely affected by the late penalty. El Ghazi's spot kick carried a probability of 0.80, so if you look at this metric across the 90 minutes before that, Wolves quite comfortably won this battle by a score of 1.36 to 0.70.
👌 Nothing beats a late, late winner!
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) December 12, 2020
⚽️ Anwar El Ghazi is the hero for Aston Villa as his late spot kick secures all three points against Wolves!#AVFC pic.twitter.com/0EMq1UwcOP
This is becoming an issue for Nuno Espirito Santo's side. They posted an xG rate of 1.86 to Southampton's 0.89 but that game ended 1-1, and it's not just goalscoring that has proven to be a problem. We applauded Wolves for their defence last season but they can consider themselves somewhat lucky not to have conceded more than they have.
Arsenal had an xG of 1.65 yet only scored once while the same can be said for Leicester, although their figure was a much bigger 2.09 when they met at the King Power in November. Fulham posted 1.02, Sheffield United had 1.03 with Leeds seeing 1.29; all three of those sides failed to find the net against Wolves.
We have to acknowledge that Raul Jimenez is out injured so Wolves are without their main striker but there is something wrong with this team currently. Going into a meeting against high-flying Chelsea on Tuesday will be a worry given that it is now just one win across their last five.
Frank Lampard's men are 4/6 with Sky Bet to win on their trip to the Molineux. Hardly one that appeals to you as a single but a selection that is certainly worth inclusion in any Tuesday accumulators.
What do West Brom do next?
Another game, another defeat for West Brom who are struggling to adjust to the step back up to the Premier League. The latest was a 2-1 loss at Newcastle; a winning goal made worse by the fact it came from a combination of former players Jacob Murphy and Dwight Gayle.
The only positive for West Brom currently is that Sheffield United, who they beat at the Hawthorns a few weeks ago, have somehow found a way to make a poorer start. The fact remains that the Baggies are the more fancied of the two for the drop.
What do they do? In all honesty, as much as you don't want to write off teams this early, what can they do? We talk about the future of Slaven Bilic and he isn't immune from criticism given their current situation, but they barely spent in the transfer window and that has had a huge effect on this campaign.
Bilic in or out? In all honesty, I'm not sure that it matters either way. From a tactical and performance point of view, they have been second-best most weeks. I try to avoid clinging onto xG too much, it's a good metric but not the overriding way of measuring performances, but the fact that they have lost the xG battle in all 12 games shows the opposition are creating the better chances to score.
The positives of the transfer window were Grady Diangana and Matheus Pereira's permanent arrivals, plus the attempt to fix their striker problem by bringing in Karlan Grant from Huddersfield, but it ends pretty much there. This is where we need to have some sympathy for Bilic.
The hierarchy could go after a change but there is nothing for a manager to work with in terms of resources to make things better. Expectations need to match the transfer activity. That was far from enough, the required injection of quality to make the step to the Premier League didn't arrive so you have to ask what the belief will seriously be if they look to bring in another manager.
There's little point in backing West Brom for relegation because there is just no value in it. All eyes will now be on Tuesday's trip to the Etihad instead, where the Baggies are huge 28/1 outsiders against Manchester City, and what damage will be done there.
Pep Guardiola's men are 3/1 to score five or more goals in that game. If you look at City's home form on the whole in the Guardiola era, this looks like the type of contest where they can punish a significantly weaker opponent. It's a target that Everton and Crystal Palace have hit already against Bilic's side this season. As mentioned above, you just know that this is a game City will love, even after sending us all to sleep in Saturday's evening kick-off.
Odds correct at 1945 GMT (12/12/20)
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