Liam Kelly picks out six stats to include in a BuildABet for Tottenham-Manchester City and recommends a roll-up priced up at 13/2.
- Over 2.5 Goals
- Nathan Aké 2+ tackles
- 30+ booking points
- Manchester City 6+ corners
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What does the Infogol expected goals (xG) model predict?
- Predicted % chance: Tottenham 21% | Draw 23% | Manchester City 56%
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 58% | Under 42%
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes 57% | No 43%
Over 2.5 Goals
Look no further than the reverse fixture for evidence of a greater chance of goals between Tottenham and Manchester City.
City have averaged 2.24 expected goals for (xGF) per game in the Premier League this term (Spurs 1.62 xGF per game) and both teams are set up nicely to exploit the defensive weaknesses in each side.
Nathan Aké 2+ tackles
Nathan Aké has a fair amount of defensive responsibilities on the left side of Manchester City's currently favoured shape and has dangerous dribbler Dejan Kulusevski to primarily contend with in this one.
The Dutchman recorded six tackles in the mid-January reverse fixture, so logging 2+ at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium doesn't look too daunting.
30+ booking points
The match-up between these teams often leads to a fairly chippy affair.
Tottenham's counter-attacking style often puts City at risk of cynical fouls and Spurs possess a number of players capable of picking up a card.
Manchester City 6+ corners
It would be no surprise to see Manchester City completely dominate possession and settle themselves in the attacking third throughout.
Pep Guardiola's team have averaged 6.55 corners taken per game in the Premier League this season.
Tottenham 2+ offsides
Tottenham rank fairly high in offsides considering they're happy to surrender possession in matches, averaging 1.67 per game.
This fixture might see Spurs exceed that average, however. City are happy to use the offside trap as a defensive tool given how high up the pitch their last defender often is.
Pedro Porro 1+ total shots
An admittedly risky play considering Pedro Porro is a new Spurs signing, but the right wing-back loves to get forward and was very productive as an attacker for Sporting.
Tottenham had success moving down City's right last time, making Porro a candidate to get at least one shot away in a possible debut.
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (03/02/23)
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