Michael Beardmore picks out six stats to include in a BuildABet for Manchester City v Liverpool in the Premier League and recommends a roll-up priced up at 15/2.
- Liverpool most booking points
- 1+ corners each team each half
- Darwin Nunez 1+ offsides
- Manchester City 15+ total shots
What does the Infogol expected goals (xG) model predict?
Liverpool most booking points
In the past seven meetings between the sides, Liverpool have received more cards than Manchester City on five of those occasions, with the other two ending even on booking points.
Indeed, across those head-to-heads, they have collected almost twice as many cautions, 19 to 10, as teacher's pets City, who are the least carded side at home in the Premier League this season.
1+ corners each team each half
No team in the Premier League averages more corners at home than City’s 7.85 per game and no side averages more away flag-kicks than Liverpool’s 6.08 per match.
The 8/13 on both sides to simply earn at least one corner per half is a very generous price considering the attacking firepower each possesses.
Darwin Nunez 1+ offsides
Only two players in the Premier League – Chelsea's Kai Havertz and Wolves' Diego Costa – are averaging more offsides per game this season than the Uruguayan’s 0.8.
With Liverpool likely to be relying on their speedy strikers to spring possession monopolists City on the break, it would be no surprise if Nunez continued that habit at Etihad Stadium.
Manchester City 15+ total shots
With Arsenal hosting struggling Leeds later on Saturday, City will likely feel nothing other than victory will do in the lunchtime kick-off and this is a side averaging 17.3 shots per game at home this season.
Liverpool are a tough opponent, for sure, but City bow to no one and in their three league and cup meetings with the Reds this term, Pep Guardiola’s side have registered shot counts of 18, 16 and 14.
Ibrahima Konate 2+ tackles
Liverpool and France defender Konate is averaging two tackles per game across the Premier League and Champions League this season.
With City’s possession-based style, Liverpool could spend a lot of time on Saturday hunting the ball and, with Thiago absent, no Reds player likes a tackle more than Konate.
Kevin de Bruyne to score or assist
Liverpool have been a bit of a mess defensively this season, particularly away from home where they are conceding 1.54 goals per game and have the Premier League’s seventh-worst defensive process on their travels (1.92 xGA per match).
It would be a shock if City did not score here. KDB has scored four times and weighed in with 12 assists in 25 appearances – a goal contribution every 1.56 games.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (31/03/23)
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