While Premier League bosses may have welcomed the World Cup break, they will soon be under pressure again. Michael Beardmore analyses which is the hottest hotseat.
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Just 15 games into the Premier League season and six managers have already left their posts.
Five - Steven Gerrard at Aston Villa, Chelsea's Thomas Tuchel, Scott Parker at Bournemouth, Southampton's Ralph Hasenhuttl and Bruno Lage at Wolves - were sacked while Brighton's Graham Potter left to take over at Stamford Bridge.
We can expect more too - as the Premier League's riches become greater with each passing year, it intensifies the desperation for clubs to remain part of the cash cow.
Last season, 10 managers in all lost their jobs - and seven of those sackings or departures came at clubs who ended the campaign in the bottom half of the table, including all three teams who went down.
Changing the manager is no guarantee - it worked, just about, for Everton and Leeds with Frank Lampard and Jesse Marsch but not for perennial P45ers Watford, nor for Norwich and Burnley, who both ditched successful, long-term bosses.
Prior to last term, there had been only five managerial departures between January 2020 and April 2021 as clubs tightened belts during and following the coronavirus pandemic - but the 19 since then shows the merry-go-round is back in full flow.
Who will be the next Premier League manager to leave? (via Sky Bet)
- 4/9 - Frank Lampard
- 3/1 - David Moyes
- 8/1 - Graham Potter
- 12/1 - Jesse Marsch, Steve Cooper
- 16/1 - Antonio Conte
- 20/1 - Gary O'Neil
- 25/1 - Bar
Odds correct at 1930 (16/12/22)
The markets have it as a seven-horse race and that's understandable when you look at some of the managers lower down the betting. Mikel Arteta, Eddie Howe and Pep Guardiola are surely safe as houses at Arsenal, Newcastle and Manchester City.
Southampton's Nathan Jones has just been appointed, as has Wolves' Julen Lopetegui, while Roberto De Zerbi has begun well at Brighton and the same can be said of Unai Emery at Aston Villa. Marco Silva, Patrick Vieira and Thomas Frank have capital clubs Fulham, Crystal Palace and Brentford making progress in mid-table.
Brendan Rodgers seems to have ridden out the storm at Leicester who, by most accounts, cannot afford to sack him anyway, and Manchester United showed they are firmly behind Erik ten Hag by backing him over the Cristiano Ronaldo saga.
Of the long shots, Jurgen Klopp (25/1) warrants a glance. Liverpool are enduring a disappointing season by their standards and Klopp seems nearer the end of his reign than the start - but it would still be a seismic shock if he were the next boss to go.
Indeed, it's heavily odds-on that it will be the blue half of Merseyside where the axe next falls...
Will Everton sack Frank Lampard?
The former England midfielder has credit in the bank at Goodison, where the supporters seem to like him - although anyone succeeding Rafa Benitez would have been assured popularity - and he oversaw their route to survival last term.
But he's the 4/9 favourite to be next for the chop - it's not even close in the betting - and there's a reason for that. Namely that the Toffees are being sucked into a relegation battle again after taking just four points from the past 21 available.
Back-to-back three-goal defeats at Bournemouth in league and cup piled more pressure on and the Boxing Day game at home to Wolves, for whom Lopetegui will be in the dugout for the first time, looks huge as a visit to Manchester City follows.
The data tells us Everton are lucky not to be even worse off than their current position of 17th, having conceded just 17 goals from a whopping xGA (Expected Goals Against) of 27.8. That's 1.85 xGA per game, the third worst in the division.
At the other end, their 11 goals scored is the league's joint second lowest and they've lost the xG battle in 12 of their 15 games this term - Lampard needs Dominic Calvert-Lewin back fit and firing else he is very likely to justify those odds-on prices.
The graphic below illustrates the problem - Everton were performing at a relatively low level anyway despite Lampard keeping them up, but this season they are actually worse, not helped no doubt by Richarlison's summer departure.
Will West Ham sack David Moyes?
The phrase "too good to go down" could have been invented for this season's Hammers side who have actually won as many games this season - 12 - as they have failed to win (D3 L9). Trouble is most of the wins have been in cups and Europe.
The Infogol model agrees with the "too good" label, suggesting the Irons should sit eighth rather than 16th and forecasting they will finish comfortably mid-table but the fact remains they are just one point above the relegation zone.
David Moyes' achievements in taking the Hammers to the brink of English football's top table should stand him in good stead and give him enough grace even if their first game back ends in defeat at leaders Arsenal.
After that, though, lies the rub - West Ham host Brentford, then visit Leeds and Wolves, before entertaining Everton. They should have enough quality to collect the points from that run of games that they need to move clear of trouble.
If they don't? Moyes could be in bother.
Is Graham Potter under pressure at Chelsea?
It seems strange to say after just three months in the job but, as new owner Todd Boehly showed by sacking Thomas Tuchel that he can be just as ruthless as predecessor Roman Abramovich, the short answer has to be yes.
While the Blues clearly selected Potter with the long term in mind, they have arguably regressed, at least in terms of statistics, since parting with the German and slumped to eighth in the Premier League table after three straight pre-World Cup defeats.
That position and form will not be allowed to continue at a club used to dining at the Champions League table almost every season and Chelsea's main worry is the lack of goals, just 17 in 14 league matches this season.
In their final two matches before the month-long break, Chelsea registered woeful Expected Goals For totals of just 0.3 and 0.36 in tame 1-0 losses to Arsenal and Newcastle respectively.
They do have the luxury of resuming with very winnable games against Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest but Potter has to close the eight-point gap to the top four before a tough January looms with games against Manchester City and Liverpool.
Will Antonio Conte leave Tottenham?
The Italian could be the wildcard in the market due to his combustible nature and Spurs' pre-World Cup form will have irked him, having lost three of their five final Premier League games before the lengthy break.
That run will have him eyeing the January transfer window - having demanded, and received, backing at this juncture last season to help him achieve a top-four finish, he will again be casting pleading eyes to the Tottenham board.
If that backing doesn't come? Well, Conte has hinted plenty of times - and not particularly subtly either - that he could walk away if the club's ambitions do not match his own.
Which team has the hardest Christmas schedule?
Interestingly, it is Spurs who face the toughest December and January according to our strength of schedule forecast - but that is mainly down to playing Manchester City twice next month as well as Arsenal.
Before that, fixtures against Brentford, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, while not easy, do not exactly strike fear into the heart. And either way, surely the only way Conte wins in this market is if he ditches Spurs, not the other way around.
Glancing slightly further up the list, three teams leap out - Everton, Leeds and Bournemouth. The Toffees face relegation rivals Wolves, Southampton and West Ham in their next seven games, a crucial sequence for their - and Lampard's - survival hopes.
Perhaps the team that stands out the most in terms of a tough schedule is Leeds. They have Manchester City, Newcastle and West Ham in their first three games upon the Premier League's resumption.
It's tough to discount a side that's won at Anfield but they could easily be in the bottom three after that run and Marsch does not enjoy the groundswell of goodwill among the supporters that kept Marcelo Bielsa in the job so long.
Bournemouth have surprised a few this season but are still only three points above the bottom three. Gary O'Neil has earned the full-time job by collecting precious points but trips to Chelsea and Manchester United feature in their next three matches.
It's difficult to imagine the Cherries dropping him so soon after deciding he's their man but stranger things have happened.
What other names are in the frame?
You're probably wondering how I've got this far without mentioning the manager in charge of the team that has been bottom of the Premier League for much of this campaign - but there's a reason behind that.
Nottingham Forest rewarded promotion-winning boss Steve Cooper with a new contract despite their sticky start to life back in the top flight - and they've taken nine points from the last 21 available to move off bottom spot.
Forest actually have the friendliest December and January schedule of any Premier League team in terms of the opposition's standing.
That's a double-edged sword as a poor month leaves them bang in trouble but they seem to be sticking by Cooper, and rightly so given they trusted him with an extensive squad overhaul during the summer.
Who should I bet on to be next Premier League manager to leave?
To summarise, Lampard looks unbackable at the prices - as we've explained, he's the likeliest candidate but far too short and if we put him aside, this is a market with definite long-shot value.
I'd also be tempted to leave Moyes alone at the odds on offer and, given Cooper's reputation among Forest fans and his new deal, I'm minded to discount him too.
If you fancy a punt in this market, the value is to split small stakes on two, three or all four of Potter, Marsch (who, if pushed, would be my pick at a very inviting 12/1), Conte and O'Neil.
That gives you two relegation-battling sides desperate to stay up, a club with a historically itchy trigger finger and an eccentric, excitable manager prone to letting his emotions go - not bad for prices ranging from 8/1 to 20/1.
Odds correct at 2000 (16/12/22)
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