Liam Kelly reviews the Premier League action from a data perspective, highlighting points of interest after the midweek round of matches.
The aim of this weekly column is to provide standout stats from each round of fixtures, to use underlying numbers to identify recent trends, and to inform punters with tools to improve their betting on the Premier League.
Raphinha to the rescue
Leeds’ narrow 1-0 win over Crystal Palace on Tuesday (xG: LEE 1.55 - 1.25 CRY) can’t be understated given their proximity to the relegation zone, and neither can Raphinha’s importance to the Yorkshire side.
His stoppage time penalty, which was won following a typically excellent delivery from the Brazilian, capped off a man-of-the-match performance, making a habit of carrying an ailing Leeds attack.
Raphinha leads the team in a number of metrics this season, including goals (6), expected goals (3.14 xG), shot-creating actions (45), progressive passes (64), successful dribbles (26), attacking third touches (324) and fouls drawn (24) — topping the majority by a considerable distance.
That amount of production alone would be impressive enough, but Raphinha also ranks second for Leeds in expected assists (2.36 xA), progressive carries (74) and progressive passes received (68).
Raphinha's output has almost single-handedly kept his struggling side's head above water. Without the 24-year-old, Leeds would be in huge trouble.
Is Liverpool's attack the best in Premier League history?
The midweek round of fixtures all but confirmed the widely held thought that this season's Premier League title race will be a three-team tussle.
Chelsea and Manchester City won away from home in unspectacular fashion, the likes of which are often vital in a league-winning campaign. Liverpool, on the other hand, dismantled Everton in the Merseyside derby, winning 4-1 in another devastating attacking display (xG: EVE 0.57 - 3.20 LIV).
Jürgen Klopp's side are on course to be the best attacking team Premier League team in history through 14 games, both in terms of actual and expected goals.
At this pace (3.07 goals per game), Liverpool will score 117 goals this season, shattering the prior record of 106, which is held by the 2017/18 Manchester City side. From an xG perspective, Liverpool's current average of 2.76 xG per game would surpass every team since Infogol started collating such data in 2014.
Only the 2019/20 City side (2.67 xG per game), who finished the season 18 points behind Liverpool's title-winning team, come close to matching the rate at which the Reds are creating chances this term.
Still, despite the record-breaking level Liverpool are performing at up top, they only sit third in the table, showing a tad more weakness in defence than Chelsea and Manchester City.
With two points currently separating the three teams, we are in for an incredible title race.
