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Premier League restart betting tips: Outright preview and best bets for 22-23 season
With the Premier League returning from the post-World Cup break, Tom Carnduff picks out three best bets to back.
LISTEN: Premier League RESTART analysis and best bets
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Football betting tips: Premier League outright
2.5pts Aston Villa to finish in the top half at 15/8 (Betway)
1.5pts Brighton to finish in the top six at 6/1 (BetVictor, Parimatch)
1pt Wolves to finish in the top half at 20/1 (General)
Just over a week after the World Cup final decides the best national team in the game, club football returns with the Premier League seeing its usual slate of Boxing Day fixtures.
While it may feel like an endless stream of football - oh, how I crave for the days of 10am kick-offs and four matches with an hour break in between - for top-flight clubs it's been a lengthy period without competitive action.
Sure, the players have been involved with their countries as you'd expect but it's essentially the same feel as the start of the season, some friendlies in a hot country before the real action begins.
It's mulled wine rather than crisp, cold pints for your pre-match drinks but largely the bulk of it is the same as it would be in early August.
So, where were we?
With the feast of international football taking centre stage over the past month or so, it's easy to forget just where we were in England's top flight.
Arsenal are currently five points clear of Manchester City at the top of the Premier League table, while high-flying Newcastle continue to defy expectations as they sit in third.
Tottenham occupy the final spot in the top four, with Manchester United three points behind and Liverpool trailing Spurs by seven.
Chelsea's struggling form under Graham Potter - who would have more than welcomed this break - has left them eight points adrift of the Champions League spots.
At the other end, Wolves remain bottom with 10 points but they have welcomed Julen Lopetegui as their new head coach with the aim of turning things around drastically.
Southampton - now under Nathan Jones - are 19th with Nottingham Forest a point off safety. Everton and West Ham are the two sides currently the most 'at risk' of dropping into the bottom three.
What next?
The festive schedule is usually a hectic one for Premier League clubs, but the removal of the round of fixtures usually played between Christmas and New Year has helped slightly.
While Nottingham Forest face Chelsea and Manchester United across this period, their run of games throughout January means they have the most favourable restart, according to the Infogol model.
It's also positive for Southampton, another side heavily involved in the relegation battle, while Unai Emery's Aston Villa have the opportunity to push themselves up the table in January.
On the flip side, Tottenham return from the break with a tricky set of fixtures, which is not something they wanted given their patchy form prior to mid-November.
Arsenal have been flying at the summit but they'll now be tested by teams expected to finish in the top half, while Manchester City have a chance to catch up given they enjoy games against Everton and Leeds in the festive period.
The break was vital for Villa
The World Cup break will be viewed differently, depending on which clubs you ask.
For some, it's an inconvenience they could have done without given their form leading into the mid-November stoppage. The more games the better, and an abrupt stop is far from ideal.
Others will have welcomed it with open arms, particularly those who needed to make a managerial change and did so early so that the new coach would have time to work with the squad.
That brings us on to a couple of clubs, the first of which is ASTON VILLA and their potential to FINISH IN THE TOP HALF.
As it stands heading into the return, the West Midlands club are 12th and just one point behind 10th-placed Brentford.
Bringing in Emery as Steven Gerrard's replacement is - in the very early stages at least - looking like a good decision. They beat Manchester United 3-1 and Brighton 2-1 in their two league games under his guidance.
The ability to score goals in those games is one big positive. If we include the Carabao Cup game against Manchester United - a 4-2 defeat just days after beating them at Villa Park - Villa have scored seven under Emery.
While a much smaller sample size, it's worth noting that they were going at 1.07 goals per game under Gerrard, with the figure at 2.33 for Emery.
The immediate impact was there, and he's now had an extended period of time to work with the squad and mould them into exactly what he wants.
A big positive for him is the fact that three of their four players at the World Cup failed to progress beyond the round of 16 - with Argentina goalkeeper Emi Martinez the only player still involved.
It's a talented enough squad currently, but Villa's track record in the transfer window makes us strongly believe that there will be additions to come in January - and good ones at that.
A 'marquee wide forward' has been reported to be their key target in the January market, with Marcus Thuram and Matheus Cunha the two names currently linked, but even if it isn't them, it's an indicator of the sort of fee they'd be willing to pay.
Backing brilliant Brighton
There were huge questions surrounding how Brighton would adapt to life without Graham Potter after he took the Chelsea job in the early part of the season.
The answer was to appoint Roberto De Zerbi and keep getting results - the Seagulls are just one point off the top six heading into the restart.
They may have been beaten by Villa in their final game before the break, but before that they had impressive wins away at Wolves alongside a 4-1 hammering of Chelsea at the Amex.
Had they found a way through from multiple chances created in the 0-0 draw with Nottingham Forest, they'd currently be a point ahead of Liverpool in sixth - fine margins.
With the usual 'Big Six' and Newcastle all odds-on in the TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX market, BRIGHTON represent good value at generous odds of 6/1.
According to the underlying numbers, De Zerbi's side boast the third-best defence in the division based on chances allowed to the opposition. That's a great sign when partnered with the sixth-best attack according to xGF (Expected Goals For).
Questions remain about Chelsea and Liverpool based on their showings in the first part of the season, while Tottenham are starting to shake after their solid start to the campaign.
Brighton's defeats under De Zerbi have been against Tottenham (H), Brentford (A), Manchester City (A) and Aston Villa (H). That's two games you'd expect them to lose, one loss away at a team who are solid at home and one who had just changed their head coach - context is key when looking at those results.
They also posted higher xG figures than their opposition in the Brentford and Tottenham games - so it could have easily been at least a point in each or potentially more.
Perhaps crucially, they have already played their away games at Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United so they don't have to worry about those trips for the rest of their season.
While they may not have the financial power to compete with the other big hitters at the top end of the table, clever recruitment thus far and a head coach suited for their current squad gives them a great chance of featuring in Europe next season.
What about Wolves?
One of the biggest talking points during the first half of the season was Wolves' decline to the bottom of the table.
They won just two of their 15 games, leading to Bruno Lage's sacking in early October and the club running with interim guidance to the World Cup break.
Lopetegui appeared to be their first choice and, following a reported initial rejection for personal reasons, he finally made the switch to Molineux - and they have benefitted massively from this break.
It's basically pre-season and the ideal scenario for a new head coach arriving at any club. He has an extended period of time to work with the squad without having to navigate around competitive fixtures at the same time.
And for all the talk/hilarious social media banter about Wolves being the Portugal national team, they have three players in that squad. The other two World Cup players returned in early December following Mexico and South Korea's exits.
As it stands, WOLVES are currently nine points off the TOP HALF, and I'm willing to have a small stakes play at 20/1 for them achieving that come the end of the season.
That's right, they need a three-game swing and more considering their goal difference currently stands at -16. However, it's important to note that the World Cup break wasn't the halfway point of the season.
Lopetegui and Wolves have 23 games to turn it around. That's 69 points up for grabs. A look at Sevilla in recent seasons gives Wolves hope that results will come.
A characteristic of Lopetegui's Sevilla side across his three full seasons at the club was that they started and ended the season quite well.
Looking at the first four games of those three seasons, Sevilla lost just once. They returned 10 points from a possible 12 in 19/20, seven points in 20/21 and eight in 21/22.
They also returned at least 10 points in their final six games of a season, with the two losses across that period in 20/21 being the only occasions they failed to pick up points. That's 18 'end of season' contests across the three campaigns, with Sevilla unbeaten in 16 of them.
That gives us confidence when we consider Wolves' fixture list on their return. The first four games pit them against Everton (A), Manchester United (H), Aston Villa (A) and West Ham (H), before contests against Manchester City (A) and Liverpool (H).
That's a tough start to life at the club for Lopetegui - the third-hardest fixture list for the restart according to the Infogol model - but the hope he can lead Wolves to replicate those Sevilla showings means we could see more points than we'd expect on face value.
The fixture list also gives them potential for going on winning runs, with February bringing them Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H) and Fulham (A).
This is a huge ask - which is obvious in the 20/1 price - but an exciting managerial appointment combined with the potential for January recruitment means it's one we're willing to get involved with.
Odds correct at 1900 GMT (16/12/22)
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