Premier League relegation odds: Who's going down and who's staying up?

Perhaps it's a bit early to say so with ten or more games remaining for all the sides involved, but four points separate the bottom nine teams, setting up a riveting run-in.

It is fair to say, however, that the reason we have such an open relegation battle in 2022/23 is there are a number bad teams, almost all of them in hope — or desperation — that three teams are worse.

So, let's take a look at each candidate for the drop, starting with the league's out of form side.

Premier League relegation 2022/23 odds (via Sky Bet)

• Southampton - 2/5
• Bournemouth - 4/7
• Nottingham Forest - 10/11
• Everton - 7/4
• Leeds - 3/1
• Wolves - 7/2
• Leicester - 4/1
• West Ham - 9/2
• Crystal Palace - 5/1

Odds correct at 0900 GMT (20/03/23)

Crystal Palace: 12th - 27 points

Without a win in 2023, Crystal Palace were sleepwalking towards relegation and are now hoping a new/old manager Roy Hodgson will be the catalyst for change after sacking Patrick Vieira.

Change is certainly needed from an attacking perspective. Palace have scored only seven goals in their 14 league games since the World Cup break, averaging a lowly 0.89 expected goals for (xGF) per game.

There is perhaps positive news for Hodgson, however. Palace face every team below them in their last 10 fixtures, the easiest schedule in the league in terms of average opponent position.

Despite the shocking form, their fate is in their own hands.

Wolves: 13th - 27 points

It's difficult to decipher where exactly Julen Lopetegui has made strides with this Wolves side.

Although the conversion of chances is better than under Bruno Lage, the Old Gold still look a terrible team going forward and are now allowing more chances and more goals than they did with their former boss.

The 4-2 defeat to Leeds last time out was perturbing, only looking a threat when three goals down.

Maybe the brief moment Wolves appeared they could get a result can give them confidence going into future matches, but their current faults could see them drop lower if not corrected.

Leeds: 14th - 26 points

Just when it was starting to look like Javi Gracia was happy to lower the entertainment level in order to earn points, Leeds gained three in a wild game with Wolves.

I'm done guessing what this team will look like week-to-week, but the win lifted them from 19th to 14th. Just enjoy the ride.

Everton: 15th - 26 points

Speaking of home comforts, three 1-0 wins at Goodison Park under Sean Dyche have vaulted Everton out of the drop zone and into 15th place with ten games remaining.

Much like last season, Everton fans might have to drag their team out of trouble, but there are certainly signs that Dyche has made a difference at the club.

The putrid performance in the Merseyside derby aside, the Toffees have managed to create scoring opportunities, a trait that will put them ahead of other relegation rivals.

Gaining 11 points from a possible 24 is a solid rate, one that will see Everton comfortably survive if continued.

Nottingham Forest: 16th - 26 points

Friday's 2-1 defeat to Newcastle (xG: FOR 0.56 - 2.82 NEW) is a worrying sign on multiple fronts for fans of Nottingham Forest.

Firstly, it is home form that is currently keeping Forest's head above water. No other team in the survival fight has more points gained at home this season, earning 20 of their 26 at the City Ground, so being beaten after taking the lead when hosting Newcastle is far from ideal.

They have just five home matches remaining, with fixtures against Wolves and Southampton looking particularly important.

I may sound like a broken record already, but an inability to score goals and create meaningful chances is another issue for this relegation candidate. Steve Cooper's side have scored only 22 goals from opportunities equating to 29.6 xG.

Add in the fact that Forest are one of the very worst defensive teams in the Premier League and their place in the top tier looks tenuous.

Leicester: 17th - 25 points

Leicester get to face a fair few of these rivals in their remaining fixtures and there's reason to believe the Foxes should climb the table given recent displays.

Results haven't really gone their way, but Leicester have performed well against some good teams.

Brendan Rodgers' side have been a much better defensive side after a torrid start to the season and possess the offensive talent to test all six of the teams they face that are also in trouble.

The tide can turn if they continue in the same vein.

West Ham: 18th - 24 points

It is away form that has West Ham in this mess, which puts a lot more stress on home games, and indeed, the first fixture after the international break, hosting Southampton at the London Stadium.

No team has a lower total of six points gained on the road, simply not good enough from 13 games played. They've scored seven goals from 16.6 xG away from home, which includes two penalties.

That might need to change to lift themselves out of trouble, visiting Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Leicester before the season is out.

The Hammers have more than enough quality to escape trouble, however.

Bournemouth: 19th - 24 points

Gary O'Neil has done a fairly impressive job after replacing Scott Parker.

Although Bournemouth clearly lack the same level of quality as the other relegation candidates, they're a scrappy team that has ground out results.

Underlying numbers support the idea that the Cherries have been the worst team in the Premier League, though, so it's difficult to envisage them staying up, which is why they remain one of the favourites for the drop with the bookies.

Bournemouth comfortably sit bottom of the expected points (xP) table and currently hold the worst expected goal difference of any team in the league, posting a -24.8 xGD.

Southampton: 20th - 23 points

Much like Bournemouth, bottom side Southampton appear to be one of the least talented teams in the Premier League that keep pulling out a result when needed to hand them hope.

Eight points from a possible 18 under Rubén Sellés is certainly an improvement, but the underlying numbers have been worrying.

Although the Saints recorded 2.68 expected goals (xG) when successfully pegging back Spurs last time out, they've averaged only 0.78 xGF per game in the other five games since Sellés took charge.

Southampton still have Manchester City, Arsenal, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool to play, so it's understandable they're 2/5 with Sky Bet to be relegated.

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