During the first set of midweek Premier League fixtures of 2020/21, Joe Townsend picks out some Punting Pointers based on the trends that have emerged so far.
Maybe mark your card
It's worth a rethink when it comes to betting on cards, with the don't mark your card approach certainly no longer automatically applicable.
After taking a while to warm up to the return of fans, there was a noticeable increase in intensity this weekend. With restrictions changing on a regular basis though, it's not straightforward to keep track of which games will be played before supporters.
The atmosphere at Craven Cottage on Sunday was superb, and undoubtedly contributed to a high-intensity performance from Fulham against Liverpool. The four yellow cards that were handed out in that match was much higher than we've been seeing for the usual contest between top and bottom in 2020/21.
There were several other examples of that over the weekend, so there is definitely value to be had if you can find the line and act quickly enough. The match-up still needs to be right, but with a new variable added to the mix, it does look like bookings are back.
Nothing came close to the madness at Molineux when Wolves took on Aston Villa at Saturday lunchtime.
Mike Dean was obviously keen for the watching public, and participating players, to remember the fixture in which he dished out his 3,000th card. He's already well on his way to 4,000 after handing out nine yellows and two reds in what might shock you to hear was actually a pretty drab affair.
If there had been fans, it could genuinely have finished seven-a-side.
The value of City's defence
Pep Guardiola has made his name by building successful, winning teams in Spain, Germany and England, teams defined by swashbuckling attacking football. Are things changing this season?
I don't think so. Pep is just as committed to his philosophy of 'take the ball pass the ball' as ever, his side just haven't quite had that killer instinct compared to previous campaigns.
But without doubt, Manchester City are now a terrific defensive unit.
Up until the shock 1-1 home draw with West Brom, where it must be said the visitors' goal was pretty lucky, it had been six straight clean sheets in all competitions - quite a phenomenal turnaround from their early-season 5-2 thrashing at home by Leicester. Since that game, City have conceded only seven goals in 17 matches.
Ruben Dias, the £64m summer signing from Benfica, has been the crucial part of that recovery. He has been the calming influence that has been absent since Vincent Kompany's departure 18 months ago.
🔵 West Brom are the first side to score against Manchester City in more than 10 hours of football.
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) December 15, 2020
🤣 How on Earth did that squeeze in?
🙌 Baggies fans won't care!
👇 #MCIWBA #MCFC #WBA pic.twitter.com/OePXmWRF5q
From our perspective, what is incredibly interesting is that the markets still underestimate Manchester City's ability to keep clean sheets. Win to nil and clean sheet bets are underpriced at the moment, but so too is the handicap market.
It offers a hugely bigger price than a City win over/under combination, because for whatever reason the traders still expect Guardiola's men to concede the odd goal.
They don't, and if they do it is incredibly rare.
Meet the new Wolves same as the old Wolves
Nuno Espirito Santo gave 4-4-2 a go, but after three matches he'd had enough.
The Wolves boss had played a three-man defence for the entirety of his three-and-a-half-year spell at Molineux so it really was some shift in gear when he decided to line up that way against Southampton a few weeks ago.
Away at Arsenal and Liverpool, they looked a lot more open in defence, and while Nuno stuck with a back four against Aston Villa at the weekend it was with a much more circumspect approach. Now it is very much back to plan A as the 3-5-2 returned for the midweek visit of Chelsea and worked a treat.
Wolves were a real favourite of this column before deciding to try something new, so it's great to have them back.
Under 2.5 goals is their specialty, and even with the two failures while playing a more front-foot 4-4-2, the Old Gold are 22 from 27 for fewer than three goals in a game.
Given that they won 2-1 on Tuesday night, it might sound counterintuitive to say the under 2.5 goals bet is firmly back in the notebook, but it really is. All three goals came in the second half, and the winner was in the 95th minute.
Our other favourite with Wolves was half-time 0-0 - that's two games in a row now.
The boys are back.
No stopping the penalty count
We all know there have a ridiculous number of penalties this term, so I don't want to bang on about it too much - the handball rule, VAR and a congested season leading to tired defensive errors are the reasons why, in my view.
There were four spot-kicks awarded at the weekend, which took us beyond the half-century to 53.
It means the Premier League is on course for a record-breaking 175 in a full campaign - the current record is 106.
If you're thinking of backing someone in the goalscorer markets who is also a penalty taker, then this is a rare time when there is some consistent extra value for you.
Three of last weekend's scorers from the spot, Anwar El Ghazi, Mateusz Klich and Gylfi Sigurdsson, were midfielders who are certainly not among the most short-priced options each week.
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