Ahead of the 12th round of Premier League fixtures, our team pick out some Punting Pointers based on the trends that have emerged so far this season.
Don't mark your card
Joe Townsend
With fans returning to some Premier League stadiums at the weekend for the first time since March, I expected this section to evolve more than it actually has; it turns out the introduction of 2,000 supporters to a cavernous ground capable of holding between 15 and 30 times that does little to increase the blood lust of top-flight players.
Manchester United's visit to West Ham, Chelsea v Leeds, the North London Derby, Liverpool's home game with Wolves and Brighton against Southampton were the matches that welcomed back supporters. Only the latter saw a significant number of cautions, with three each for Albion and Saints, as the other four fixtures registered between none and three.
Incredibly, we were within 16 minutes of going an entire Saturday - and four games - without a yellow card, only for Diego Llorente to christen his Leeds United debut with a booking.
Prior to the Spaniard catching the attention of referee Kevin Friend, more than six hours of top-flight football had been played since Matty Cash's name went in book during Aston Villa's defeat at West Ham in the Monday Night Football.
There will be plenty of juicy prices on cards, and match-ups that look as though they simply must lead to an inevitable caution. But in this most bizarre of seasons, it is highly unlikely to happen.
An average of 3.4 yellow cards per game were awarded last term, with that number falling to 2.9 in 2020/21. The drop is in actual fact far greater, given that the final quarter of 2019/20 was played in these same sterile conditions.
In case you are doing, it would be wrong to consider a reduction of 0.5 as insignificant - 16% is a huge drop. In the context of a season, it's roughly 1,100 yellow cards instead of 1,300.
Unless you have a compelling reason to, don't back cards.
Now that I've bored you with all those numbers, a quick look at how the pinpointed games from last week got on in the under bookings stakes.
Burnley v Everton and Manchester City v Fulham were the two I picked out, and neither involved a single card. Cautiously, I was a little cold on West Ham v Manchester United but argued that it fit perfectly into the model we'd been using - that too delivered no cards. Sheffield United v Leicester was noted as one to avoid, and delivered four cards.
The Hammers/United game can't really be claimed, but the first two adds to our list of under 30 success stories: it's now seven from eight, with only an injury-time VAR dissent booking denying us a full house.
This weekend throws up all kinds of possibilities.
As is now customary, local derbies and clashes between teams competing for a similar place in the table get a line drawn through them. Leicester v Brighton and Southampton v Sheffield United are match-ups I don't like, which was the case last weekend, a thought process that was validated by the results.
Fulham v Liverpool and Arsenal v Burnley would be my bankers, with Everton against Chelsea and Leeds versus West Ham matches that ought to make the cut too if not for me just feeling slightly uncomfortable with them.
The latter should be included, and if the price is right at Goodison then that needs to be seriously considered too. The potential for that contest to be played at a basketball-style, end-to-end tempo is what has me a little edgy.
Mismatch Sunday
Tom Carnduff
There's a few interesting mismatches on Sunday, and we're not just talking about positions in the league here. Southampton's clash with Sheffield United at 12:00 followed by Leicester v Brighton at 19:15 providing some bets that are definitely worth consideration.
We will start with that contest at St. Mary's and set-pieces could again prove to be crucial for Ralph Hasenhuttl's men. We saw Jannik Vestergaard score a powerful header in Monday's win over Brighton and we could see one of the centre-backs netting again here.
Corners and free-kicks have been highly successful for the Saints so far. They sit top of the Premier League for goals scored from set-pieces (7), with Chelsea the other side joining them on this total. That is why, despite Vestergaard being a central defender, he has three on his tally already.
The bad news for Sheffield United is that they sit joint-second for goals conceded from set-piece situations (5) with Brighton and Leeds, only Leicester (6) have seen more against in this area.
Thiago Silva, Ezri Konsa and Romain Saiss are three centre-backs who have already netted against the Blades from set-pieces this season while others have caused them significant problems. Ben Chilwell also scored from a corner while Timo Werner hit the crossbar from a free-kick in the 4-1 loss at Chelsea. That is Chelsea who, like Southampton, have seven goals from set-pieces.
Sky Bet have Vestergaard priced at 11/1 for a goal anytime on Sunday, a defender who won a huge ten aerial duels in the win over Brighton, while his defensive partner Jan Bednarek is 16/1. Bednarek scored in their last home outing, the 3-2 defeat to Manchester United.
Onto the game at the King Power where Leicester face Brighton. Alongside a goal from a corner, Brighton also saw Southampton's winner come from the penalty spot. Now we're not going to get into the debate of whether it was a penalty or not, the fact is that it was given and Southampton took full advantage.
Conceding penalties has been a problem for Brighton this season. No other side in the Premier League has conceded more from the spot than Brighton (5). In total, they have seen penalties given against them in games against Southampton, Tottenham, Crystal Palace, Manchester United and Chelsea.
The bad news for them here is that Leicester have scored the most from the penalty spot (7) with a buffer zone between them and the rest. They have seen penalties scored against Wolves, Leeds, Manchester City (x3) and Burnley (x2). It's an impressive goalscoring record considering they have been awarded eight.
So in total, Leicester have been awarded eight spot-kicks this season. Two teams sit in second with five and one of those is Brighton. Of those five, they have found the net in four of them. It depends on how strict the referee is, but with VAR and its continued questionable use, a game between two frequent penalty takers is always worth looking at when it comes to this market.
It is 9/4 with Sky Bet that a penalty is scored in this game but the 'safer' option of a penalty taken is still an attractive 7/4. The latter is certainly worth looking at while that price is still available.
Pascal the penalty value
Joe Townsend
In case you have been living under a rock these past few months, penalties are en vogue. Not just in this article, but in the Premier League.
The top flight is now just one shy of racking up its half century after little more than a quarter of 2020/21. The top flight is on course to finish the campaign with 174; the record is 106.
It was a wonderfully quiet weekend on that front however, with no spot-kicks awarded until the final game on Monday night - but I could've cried when David Coote pointed to the spot at the Amex, and Brighton's Pascal Gross proceeded to open the scoring against Southampton.
Only a week or so prior, I had pinpointed the midfielder as potentially the Premier League's last remaining penalty taker of value, should he get a run in the Albion team while Neal Maupay was missing through injury. After struggling for action in the early part of the season, Monday's loss to Saints was the German's fifth consecutive start.
Sadly, his anytime scorer odds (6/1) for this weekend's trip to Leicester have taken something of a hit after netting from the spot in back-to-back games, but he still remains an inviting 15/1 to break the deadlock.
Maupay came off the bench on Monday, so it would be no shock if he were to return to the XI for their trip to the King Power; it's one to hold off on until the team sheets are out, though.
Odds correct at 2200 GMT (08/12/20)
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