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Free football betting tips: Premier League Punting Pointers for matchday 10
Ahead of the 10th round of Premier League fixtures, Joe Townsend has some betting ideas based on the trends that have emerged so far this season.
Balancing out the penalty average?
As is standard practice, there was a meeting of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOL) over the international break, a chance for referees to give feedback and to be fed back to.
They must - must - have discussed penalties.
My apologies for trotting out this statistic time and again... but since 2006/07 there have been between 80 and 106 penalties awarded each season; pre-international break we were on for 200.
I wrote last week that we needed to keep an eye out for a sudden drop after the PGMOL meeting. We saw exactly that, but with even more to it.
Four spot-kicks were awarded, still well below our average of 41 from the opening 78 fixtures, but two of those were overturned on VAR review - almost unheard of earlier this season.
They were remarkably similar incidents, with the referee in question looking at slow-motion footage on a pitchside monitor and deciding the offender had made the slightest of contact with the ball before cleaning out his man.
The decisions were not clear and obvious errors, where VAR intervention was appropriate.
From one penalty per 1.9 games across the opening nine rounds of fixtures, we saw one per five games.
It certainly appears as though 'if you can review and not give it' will be the new spot-kick mantra, so the days of finding outstanding value in this market may well be over almost as soon as they began.
But the chance of VAR intervening has probably gone up, and that is a market that can be backed. It's not something we can really analyse effectively game to game, though.
Mark your card... or don't - how did we get on?
I won't spend an age going over old ground, so long story short I had a theory on yellow cards that was put into practice last weekend, with the aim of picking out fixtures to bet on for under 30 booking points.
Newcastle v Chelsea was identified as having the potential for a juicy price, through a combination of the Magpies' high bookings count and the referee's reputation, but being likely to see a maximum of two cards.
It delivered, with the home side collecting two bookings and the visitors none.
Burnley v Palace and Sheffield Utd v West Ham were noted as "having under 30 booking points potential but in need of closer examination" - there were two and no yellow cards in those fixtures respectively.
Of course, you've always got to bear in mind that a moment, or two, of madness from one player could bust your coupon; see Tariq Lamptey's two stoppage-time bookings for Brighton at Villa, and Nicolas Pepe's idiotic straight red for Arsenal against Leeds.
Those two matches, along with Tottenham's win over Manchester City, were the only fixtures to see 30+ booking points last weekend.
Oh Nicolas Pepe. Oh dear.
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) November 22, 2020
🔴 He's shown a straight red card.pic.twitter.com/pJsH5CWpfu
This weekend, there are lots of clashes between teams who should be competing in the same area of the table come May.
Chelsea v Spurs and West Brom v Sheffield United fall into that category, Arsenal v Wolves and Everton v Leeds probably do, Palace v Newcastle is a close call along with West Ham v Aston Villa. And I just don't like Man Utd's trip to fiercely competitive Southampton.
Manchester City v Burnley, Brighton v Liverpool and Leicester v Fulham are what's left. That final fixture is between the two teams who have received most bookings this season, so it has to go.
Brighton's 13 yellow cards from nine fixtures has them 10th in the standings, alongside Burnley and a card behind City - both of whom have played a game fewer. Liverpool are bottom with just seven bookings.
Both those fixtures look good to me.
I would be far from shocked to see Leicester's game with Fulham beat the odds too, which makes it worth a look when the market goes live.
It's as run-of-the-mill as you'll find, so consider giving yourself a bit more wriggle room if the price is right - which it should be given both teams' disciplinary records.
Keep backing Ben Chilwell
Goalscoring full-backs have cropped up a few times in this column, ultimately bringing us to Ben Chilwell.
It was a quiet weekend for our full-backs/wing-backs when it comes to goals, a rarity in 2020/21, but the Chelsea man is still worthy of mention.
Last week I wrote about an interview in which Chilwell, who has scored twice this season, explained his change in role since moving to Stamford Bridge from Leicester - he's encouraged to attack like a winger, basically.
I recommended backing him to score first against Newcastle, at 33/1 each-way with bet365, and he couldn't have come much closer. I jumped off my sofa as he made for the back post, only for Magpies defender Federico Fernandez to bundle the ball into his own net. No one was a winner there Federico, no one.
And so to this weekend, and because Chelsea are playing Tottenham, in what's likely to be a cagey, low-scoring game, Chilwell's price is up to 40/1 with the same bookmaker.
The first goalscorer punt is even more precious in a match of few goals, but this is one I'd strictly stick by to small stakes. My preference would be to take a look at how the contest is panning out, and make a decision in-play, because it would be no surprise should both teams shut up shop.
That may very well include Chilwell playing a more traditional full-back role, for once.
Where is the set-piece value?
Watching Brighton's win at Aston Villa on Saturday it was truly astonishing that it took until the 47th minute for Albion to concede from a set piece. More astonishing yet, was the fact they didn't concede again.
Graham Potter's side were all over the place defending free-kicks and corners, so it comes as no surprise that only Leicester (6) have conceded more than their five set-piece goals this season.
Liverpool, their opponents this weekend, are decent performers when it comes to scoring set-piece goals, so Joel Matip's 33/1 each-way odds as first goalscorer are certainly tempting. But if we're looking for a team to score from those situations at the weekend, Everton are the play.
Combine the superb delivery of Lucas Digne, who bagged two assists against Fulham on Sunday, the Toffees' position at the top of the set-piece goals standings, and opponents Leeds' second-placed position in most conceded, and it makes sense.
Backing Everton to score from a corner, or to score a headed goal, is a good option when the market goes live. But in terms of straight player options, centre-backs Yerry Mina (25/1 across the board) and Michael Keane (40/1 with bet365) are strong each-way options as first goalscorers.
Keane's price is odd considering he's scored three times already this term, especially in comparison to Mina's when his team-mate has netted only once - both the Colombian's goals last season came in the same game, too.
Perhaps people simply cannot forget Mina's stoppage-time equaliser against England at the 2018 World Cup, so keep backing him to score and driving down the price.
In fairness, goals that go in off the underside of the bar are pretty memorable, especially when they help set up a truly unforgettable penalty shootout.
Apologies - I digress.
THE HANDOVER
- SAFE TO BACK UNDERS
After a high-scoring start to the season, 40 of the past 50 matches have involved under 3.5 goals, and 34 of the past 40. Sheffield United and Wolves remain our go-to teams, but it's a highly reliable market at the moment.
Look past the Blades' recent 4-1 thrashing by Chelsea and 48 of their past 52 matches have had under 3.5 goals. For Wolves, it's now 20 from 23 for under 2.5.
As an addendum to these rolling stats, seven of last weekend's games had under 2.5 goals, with four under 1.5. Teams are definitely becoming more circumspect.
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