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Mo Salah's late penalty completed his hat-trick and gave Liverpool a 4-3 win over Leeds

Premier League - Punting Pointers: Betting tips and lessons for matchday two

By Joe Townsend

Football

Thu September 17, 2020 · 4y ago

Ahead of the second round of fixtures in the 2020/21 Premier League season, and first for four clubs, we look at some of the lessons that can be quickly learned from week one.

Like any football club, manager, player or fan, a new season offers the opportunity for a fresh start. All glitzy-eyed and hopeful, it’s the time for often misplaced optimism that this campaign could be the best yet. For punters and tipsters alike, it’s no different – although I politely ask that the ‘misplaced’ description be withdrawn.

It’s never easy knowing how things will shape up on the opening weekend of a football season in ordinary circumstances, and these circumstances a far from ordinary.

So never has it been more important to pick up on the clues on offer as quickly as possible.

Promoted sides cannot defend

Timothy Castagne celebrates scoring for Leciester against West Brom

While the main story line to come out of the opening weekend was Leeds pushing Premier League champions Liverpool all the way at Anfield, defensively Marcelo Bielsa’s side weren’t much different to West Brom or Fulham - the clubs promoted from the Sky Bet Championship alongside them in July.

The newly-promoted trio conceded 10 goals between them, which in itself is a staggeringly high number. What it truly exposed was their naivety, as just one of those 10 was properly ‘earned’, which I know sounds harsh on the attacking teams but it’s true.

Only two came from open play, and all three sides conceded a headed goal from a defender at a corner, which is far less of a coincidence than both Jamie Vardy and Mo Salah scoring a brace of penalties.

That lax set-piece defending really brings opposing defenders into play as anytime goalscorers.

Frustratingly, Leeds and Fulham meet this weekend which doesn’t really allow our hypothesis to be properly tested.

West Brom though, visit Everton. With the superb Lucas Digne on dead-ball duty at Goodison it’s really worth looking at the Toffees’ centre-halves Michael Keane (12/1) and Yerry Mina (17/2) with small stakes.

But this isn’t just a one week thing, stick it in your notebook for the season in case they don't wise up fast.

Wolves the under 2.5 kings

Raul Jimenez scores for Wolves

On Monday night I went from being chuffed for having avoided a bet, to kicking myself for ever having doubted Wolves' consistency of being involved in low-scoring matches.

Their contest with similarly frugal operators Sheffield United was fairly priced at 1/2 for under 2.5 goals. When Nuno’s men raced 2-0 ahead inside six minutes, anyone backing that market can be forgiven for turning the TV off in disgust.

But even having scored twice so early, Wolves still came through by closing out a 2-0 win – their scoreline of choice against all ranges of opponents because of their strength on the counter attack.

Wolves' matches have now had under 2.5 goals 13 times out of 14, with the only exception being a 3-0 win over an Everton side that were so toothless captain Seamus Coleman called his team-mates a disgrace in a post-match interview.

You won’t be looking at a price as short as 1/2 throughout the season either, playing the Blades is what drove those odds down.

I’d admire your bravery in taking the plunge for their next outing at home to a Manchester City side whose 14 post-lockdown matches only failed to exceed 2.5 goals three times, hence the 13/10 on offer.

But it has happened in half their meetings since Wolves returned to the top flight in 2018 (1-1, 3-0 City, 0-2 Wolves, 3-2 Wolves) and anyway, I’ll keep saying it until I’m blue in the face – we’re thinking about the long game.

Leeds and Saints top tackle count

Southampton boss Ralph Hasenhuttl favours a high pressing style

Southampton and Leeds lost in very different ways on opening day, Saints having 71% possession against a Crystal Palace side content to sit deep, and Leeds contesting what was tantamount to a basketball match with Liverpool.

So for both sides to make so many tackles, in such different circumstances, really stood out. It can be explained though.

A product of the Red Bull coaching system, Ralph Hasenhuttl has been bred to encourage what is essentially Marcelo Bielsa-branded high pressing, so in that sense at least, Southampton and Leeds are very similar.

In last season’s Sky Bet Championship, despite being at the opposite end of the table, Leeds’ closest mirror image was in fact Barnsley. Their coach Gerhard Struber is another Red Bull pupil, so we shouldn't be surprised.

Leeds’ 34 tackles in a crazy game against Liverpool, who managed only 13, was just six more than Southampton’s 28 in a match where their opponent rarely had the ball. That is quite startling. It’s then a drop-off to Everton with the third-highest, 19.

While in any instance we should be careful not to read too much into one set of fixtures, this is a stat that I'm convinced will remain consistent. Southampton made more than 700 tackles in the Premier League last season, only Leicester made more.

Backing certain players in the tackle count is tricky in the early part of the season, there are some exceptions of course, as we don't have enough evidence to go on. Team tackling is a much safer bet right now.

For their meeting with Fulham, Leeds are 11/10 to make 20+ tackles, 6/4 for 21+ tackles and 11/2 for 27+ tackles. They thrashed Scott Parker’s side 3-0 during lockdown, and still managed 21 tackles, which is a really handy indicator.

For Saints’ home match against Spurs, it’s evens for 20+ tackles, 5/4 for 21+ tackles and 6/1 for 28+ tackles.

Southampton averaged 19 tackles per game in the Premier League last season, but start taking your average from the sixth match of the campaign, when Hasenhuttl’s methods were seemingly being taken on board more, and it’s closer to 21. After that slow start, no team made more tackles in the top flight than Saints.

Unless the bookies quickly adjust, this could be a real money maker.

Odds correct at 2300 BST (15/09/20)

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