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Premier League betting tips: Outright preview and best bets for 2021/22 season
The top of the Premier League is set to be more competitive this season, and Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to assess the outright markets, selecting best bets in the process.
Football betting tips: Premier League outright
5pts Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd to all finish top four at 2/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
4pts Leicester to win the Premier League w/o ‘Big Six’ at 13/8 (Betfred)
3pts Arsenal to finish top six at 11/8 (bet365, Betfred)
Last season’s Premier League was a strange one, especially at the start, as all of the teams who were involved in the delayed latter stages of European competitions – which were played in a quickfire format after the league seasons finished – started extremely sluggishly.
On November 21, eight games into the season, Manchester City sat 13th and Manchester United were 11th, both a goal difference of -1. They would go on to finish as champions and runners-up.
Liverpool’s title defence was halted by numerous injuries, notably to star man Virgil van Dijk, while eventual Champions League winners Chelsea needed a managerial change to realise their potential.
Those two pipped Leicester to a top four spot, with the Foxes again blowing their chances of Champions League football down the home stretch. West Ham were the surprise package of 2020/21, finishing in sixth ahead of both Tottenham and Arsenal.
The north London rivals need to be better this time around, but the big question is, will this season be as unpredictable and chaotic as last season?
Who will win the Premier League title?
There were serious extenuating circumstances that caused the Premier League to be manic last season. No fans and a hectic fixture schedule helped cause all sorts of carnage on a week-by-week basis.
Those factors won't be at play this time around, making it hard to see past the bigger clubs.
Premier League 21/22 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 8/13 - Man City
- 5/1 - Liverpool
- 11/2 - Chelsea
- 15/2 - Man Utd
- 50/1 - Arsenal
- 66/1 - Tottenham
- 80/1 - Leicester
Odds correct as of 10:00 (06/08/21)
Champions MANCHESTER CITY are strongly fancied to defend their title - by the bookies, by the Infogol model and by me.
After last season's uncharacteristically slow start, City kicked into a different gear.
Pep Guardiola’s side picked up 74 points from their next 30 games, being the only team to average more than 2.0 expected points (xP) per game from that point onwards – averaging an impressive 2.17.
In a change from their previous title wins, City’s defence was the key. They allowed just 0.76 expected goals against (xGA) per game in that period, limiting their opponents to very little in the way of chances. But over the course 2020/21, Manchester City averaged just 2.02 expected goals for (xGF) - the lowest season average since Guardiola arrived in the summer of 2016.
They found the net just 83 times having averaged 101 league goals over the past three seasons.
That backline should provide them with an extremely solid platform to build on, with no reason to think they won’t be just as good this term.
Despite making no high-profile signings to date – apologies if you are a massive Scott Carson fan – and losing Eric Garcia and club-legend Sergio Aguero, it is hard to look past City in the title race.
Should Jack Grealish and/or Harry Kane arrive before the window closes, City could become unstoppable.
The Infogol model calculates that the Citizens have a 56.9% (3/4) chance of retaining their crown, meaning any price bigger than that represents value. But given City are generally priced shorter than that, I wouldn't advise backing them at that price.
What the market can’t decide is who City’s closest challengers will be - CHELSEA or Liverpool?
The Blues, now led by the genius Thomas Tuchel, are European champions, and while they scraped over the top-four line last season, they finished the campaign in blistering form.
Tuchel oversaw 19 league games last term having been appointed on January 26, and after that date, no team collected more expected points per game than Chelsea (2.10).
The impressive stats don’t stop there though, as the Blues were the best defensive team in the league after Tuchel took charge, allowing just 0.68 xGA per game.
If they were to replicate that number over the course of a full season, the Blues would go down as the best defensive team since Infogol began collating such data.
Converting chances continues to be an issue for Chelsea, though. After underperforming in attack under Frank Lampard in 19/20 (69 goals, 78.3 xGF), the Blues did so again under Tuchel (25 goals, 35.9 xGF).
This shows that they are creating opportunities in abundance, but taking chances is proving to be something of an issue. One that at the moment could cost them in their pursuit of the title.
LIVERPOOL’s season was wrecked early doors by injuries to key defensive personnel, but they pulled themselves out of a huge ditch to salvage a Champions League berth, winning eight of their last 10 games.
Overall, they did deserve to finish in the top four based on xG, and they have an extremely well-rested squad for the first time in a while, with few of their players involved in international competitions over the summer.
They will be dangerous again, especially with Van Dijk back marshalling the defence, and fresh versions of Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane leading the line.
Infogol’s model gives Liverpool (17.4%) a slight edge over Chelsea (16.7%) in terms of winning the title, but it is tight, with just 0.7% between the two.
Both are priced accurately so offer little value, and it’s the same for MANCHESTER UNITED, who have arguably been the best recruiters in the off-season.
Jadon Sancho and Raphael Varane have joined the Red Devils after another season of progression under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, who has been rewarded with a new contract, despite failing to claim any silverware.
They do appear to be heading in the right direction, but were fortunate to be the bridesmaids last season, ranking only fourth on expected points, overperforming at both ends of the pitch.
Their average of 1.25 xGA per game is a concern, and they will be hoping Varane can be the man to sure things up at the back. Going forward they have the talent, but they are some way behind Manchester City – as well as also potentially being behind both Chelsea and Liverpool heading into the new season.
United’s chances of winning the title stand at 8.2% (implied odds 11/1), so the quotes of 8/1 generally do not appeal whatsoever.
Who will finish in the Premier League top four?
All of Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United are incredibly short to back in the top four market - backing all four to finish in the Champions League places in any order is potentially the best way to go.
Premier League 21/22 top four odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/33 - Man City
- 2/9 - Liverpool
- 1/4 - Chelsea
- 4/11 - Man Utd
- 10/3 - Arsenal
- 4/1 - Leicester, Tottenham
Odds correct as of 10:00 (06/08/21)
Infogol makes it highly likely City, Chelsea, Liverpool and United finish as the top four – in any order – calculating a 57.8% chance of that happening.
Leicester did get incredibly close in each of the last two seasons, but finished sixth and seventh respectively in Infogol's expected table. According to xG, the top four had the right teams in it both times - City, Liverpool, Chelsea and United.
CHELSEA, LIVERPOOL, MAN CITY AND MAN UTD ALL TO FINISH IN THE TOP FOUR is priced at 2/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power and it is simply too big to turn down.
Who will finish in the Premier League top six?
Tottenham, Leicester, Arsenal, Everton, Leeds, Aston Villa and last season’s sixth place finishers West Ham are all in the mix to make the top six.
LEICESTER are side I think see as most likely. Brendan Rodgers continues to do an excellent job at the King Power, and despite another disappointing end to a campaign, the Foxes will have put that behind them.
Premier League 21/22 top six odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/1 - Arsenal
- 6/5 - Leicester, Tottenham
- 3/1 - Everton
- 10/3 - Leeds
- 9/2 - West Ham
- 11/2 - Aston Villa
Odds correct as of 10:00 (06/08/21)
They are 6/5 to finish in the top six, and while I think that is a great value bet, I prefer another Leicester-based angle at a bigger price.
The ‘without big six’ league table is basically what the bookies think of as the best of the rest beyond Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham. Leicester have crashed that party in the last two seasons, and should do so again.
Strangely though, the Foxes are priced as short as 8/11 in places for a top-six finish – best priced 6/5 – but we can back LEICESTER TO WIN THE LEAGUE W/O BIG SIX at 13/8 with Sky Bet and Boylesports.
If they are odds-on to finish in the top six, then for them to be such a big price here, the bookies are thinking one of Everton, Leeds, West Ham or Aston Villa will finish in the top four or five, which is highly unlikely.
The underlying numbers back up that Leicester are an elite level team, and what’s more, they are one of the best run football clubs in the Premier League with an excellent recruitment policy – so are always improving.
Exciting young forward Patson Daka and Ligue 1-winning midfielder Boubakary Soumare should make them even stronger for 2021/22.
Leicester really are the best of the rest, with the Infogol model forecasting a fifth-placed finish for a third season running.
Will Arsenal finish in the top six?
ARSENAL are the other side I like for a top-six finish. For the scores of Arsenal sceptics out there, just bear with me.
After finishing eighth in 19/20 with a -9.2 expected goal difference (xGD), deserving to finish in the bottom half according to expected points, the Gunners made positive strides under Mikel Arteta last season.
Though they again finished eighth, their expected goal difference was positive, +8.5, showing a 17.7 xG swing from the previous season. In simple terms that means that, on average, Arsenal were creating more and better chances than their opponents per game.
What is most noteworthy, though, is that they deserved to finish sixth according to expected points.
Arteta has finally got Arsenal heading in the right direction, and they also now seem to finally be signing the players they need – Ben White being a good example - to help complement the youthful, energetic side that Emile Smith Rowe and Bukayo Saka have epitomised.
Another big positive is Arsenal don’t have any European football to distract them from getting their Premier League aspirations back on track.
I like the price of 11/8 available for ARSENAL TO FINISH TOP SIX and I'm surprised to see them third favourites behind Tottenham to occupy a top six berth at the end of the season.
Tottenham just aren't a team I can get behind this season.
They performed like a mid-table team last term based on expected goals, finishing 10th in Infogol's xG table, and now have a new manager in Nuno Espirito Santo, who has a major rebuild on his hands, as well the constant speculation over the future of star man Kane and the fixture congestion that will come with the inaugural UEFA Conference League.
Everton, with Rafael Benitez now in charge, 20/21 surprise packages West Ham, Marcelo Bielsa's impressive Leeds United side and Aston Villa will all be listed among the contenders too.
But the price about Arsenal to finish in the top six is simply too big to ignore.
Premier League 21/22: Outright best bets
- 5pts Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd all finish top four at 2/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 4pts Leicester to win the Premier League w/o ‘Big Six’ at 13/8 (Betfred)
- 3pts Arsenal to finish top six at 11/8 (bet365, Betfred)
Odds correct as of 10:00 BST (06/08/21)
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