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Premier League: How can Tottenham to beat Manchester City?
A run of three consecutive defeats for Tottenham has raised the alarm and many are starting to worry that Antonio Conte won’t be around for much longer.
That angst will only grow should Manchester City win at the Etihad on Saturday, condemning Spurs to four defeats in a row for the first time since 2004. Not even Nuno Espirito Santo oversaw a slump that bad.
But watching Conte cut a disconsolate figure on the touchline in the 2-0 defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers may not have been the sign of resignation that so many have suggested.
After the game the Italian, once again, preached patience: this is a long process and Conte would appear to be committed to the cause.
And if you were looking for positives from that Wolves game, there were plenty to be found. Aside from the fact it was a decent overall performance – save for the two early goals – Conte’s two new signings from Juventus slotted neatly into a new formation.
Back at Chelsea in 2016 it was a famous mid-game formation change, from a 4-2-3-1 to a 3-4-2-1 during a 3-0 defeat to Arsenal, that was the catalyst for a turnaround in form.
It is just possible we saw something similar at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last weekend.
Conte’s deep line may reproduce Chelsea performance
Should Spurs continue with their usual 3-4-3, things look pretty ominous. Conte’s desire to play in a low block and to rarely press the opposition is inviting pressure – of the sort we saw Southampton and Wolves successfully apply in their last two matches.
The main issue, it would seem, is that the Italian’s methods need some adapting to the modern Premier League and its Germanic high pressing; two defensive midfielders, under pressure and from a low starting position, lack the ability to take advantage of the attacking transitions.
Chelsea were completely dominant in a 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge in late January, pinning Tottenham’s clumsy and ultra-defensive 4-4-2; the visitors held just 35% possession as the wide midfielders Ryan Sessegnon and Matt Doherty were hopelessly deep.
It was far too easy for Thomas Tuchel’s side to dominate and suffocate, something Manchester City threaten to do should Spurs again lack the aggression or assertiveness needed to come out of their deep shell.
However, it did take a Hakim Ziyech wonder strike to break the deadlock, while Man City are most vulnerable when lured into slow and stale possession.
Nuno’s 1-0 win over City in the first game of the season remains a template that could be worth following.
Spurs should move to 4-2-3-1 and press higher
Not since that day have Man City been troubled by a low block, mind, unless it is also accompanied with a sharp aggression through central midfield.
Southampton, for example, are excellent pressers and put City under concerted pressure to ensure they were not camped on the edge of their own box, waiting to submit.
The best way for Conte to achieve something similar – in fact, the only way – is to pick up where he left off against Wolves.
In the 29th minute he substituted Ryan Sessegnon for Dejan Kulusevski and moved to a 4-2-3-1 formation, with the new signing playing in the number ten position ahead of Harry Winks and Rodrigo Bentancur.
It worked well, primarily because it offered a Spurs a solution to the problem of their low block.
New signings could prove key
Ordinarily under Conte, Spurs have started from such a low position – rarely even pressing from opposition goal kicks – that they have a lot of pitch to work through when in possession.
On top of this, they have just two central midfielders on the pitch, which means any team looking to press them will easily cut off the route into the front three.
But after Spurs switched the Wolves midfield struggled to assert themselves; Kulusevski acted as a fulcrum between the midfield and attacking lines, providing Winks and Bentancur with a progressive pass and relieving pressure on Harry Kane to come short.
Bentancur in particular looked more settled with a forward passing option open to him.
Not enough has been made of the significance of Conte - who played a back three for six years before moving to 4-4-2 for that Chelsea game – changing shape.
And as in that famous game between Arsenal and Chelsea, Conte might have stumbled on the solution that carries Tottenham through the rest of the season.
Certainly Man City’s high press will make it very difficult for Spurs to avoid being pinned should they start in a 3-4-2-1.
But in a 4-2-3-1, an extra attacking body will provide the opportunity to make the most of attacking transitions, feeding Kane or Heung-Min Son via Kulusevski to catch City on the counter.
It’s worth noting that Nuno’s 1-0 win was in a 4-3-3 in which Dele Alli advanced forward in Kulusevski-style.
Dier, Lucas & Kane the crucial players
Speaking of counters, it is self-evident that the best way to play City is to release passes in behind their high defensive line as quickly as possible.
Spurs welcome Eric Dier back for this match and his long balls forward, feeding the wing-backs with a diagonal or creating a direct route to goal, have been sorely missed.
Ball progression is a metric quantifying how many meters a player is taking the ball forward.
Lucas is another key player here, assuming Conte plays 4-2-3-1, because Joao Cancelo’s movement into central attacking midfield has a very slight negative impact on Man City’s ability to defend their left flank.
Finally, keep an eye on how many players Spurs can get moving around Rodri – the player most likely to be left isolated in the middle of the park.
In several games this season Man City’s opponents have found joy when confidently stepping up in numbers and playing through the centre, where Rodri can be exposed without any other midfield partners (Bernardo Silva and Kevin de Bruyne will sit higher, given that Pep Guardiola is unlikely to think he needs two holding midfielders at the Etihad).
Kane dropping, and Kulusevski floating around, may be enough of a combination to cause Rodri problems.
There is no doubt Man City are clear favourites.
By far the most likely outcome is more hesitant and error-prone defending from a Tottenham side low on self-esteem and, camped in their own half, inviting a psychological inferiority complex.
The sheer variety of Guardiola’s attacking talent, not to mention their supreme confidence, points to a gliding, incisive win over Conte’s side.
And yet that formation change on Saturday cannot be ignored. It provided the hint of a new direction, and the nagging sense that something significant is about to happen for Conte and Spurs.