Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe picks out the best value bets in the overs/unders markets from across the weekend’s Premier League action.
Infogol is a revolutionary football product, which harnesses Opta data to power an expected goals model. Expected Goals quantifies the quality of a scoring opportunity, allocating each chance a probability of it finding the back of the net.
The xG metric can be used to assess teams and their performances, and it also helps to give an insight into future prospects, which in turn helps with betting.
Southampton vs Tottenham
Southampton didn’t get off to the start of the season they would have hoped for, losing at Crystal Palace in what was an underwhelming performance that was far from what has been expected.
I expect a much more dynamic performance from the Saints, and a more attack minded one at that, as they showcased down the stretch last season when they averaged 1.74 xGF per game post-break.
In my opinion, Tottenham were exceptionally poor against Everton. The looked like they ran out of ideas after they went 1-0 down, and the lack of pressing meant it was a comfortable afternoon for Everton.
That wasn’t a surprise to me. Spurs, while finishing sixth last season, ranked 13th in our xG table, and they played like that the other day. They too have to be more attack-minded in their approach.
It is criminal that they have so much attacking talent being wasted at the moment. Harry Kane is living off scraps, he had two shots equating to 0.19 xG last weekend, while Heung-Min Son didn’t fair much better (1 shot, 0.06 xG).
Hopefully we do see these sides open up a bit. Both have the capability and the quality to create plenty of chances, while both are vulnerable at the back. I like the look of Over 2.5 in this one at 10/11.
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11
Chelsea vs Liverpool
The last meeting of these two sides was an eight-goal thriller at Anfield, and it’s hard to make a case for this clash being low-scoring.
Saying that, I was really disappointed with Chelsea’s display at Brighton on Monday. There was plenty of excitement surrounding the Blues ahead of that match, mainly from an attacking perspective, but they created just 0.58 non-penalty xGF, failing to create a big chance other than the penalty.
Brighton out-played them to put it simply, and Frank Lampard got lucky with a sensational strike for Reece James (2%) and a deflected goal from Kurt Zouma (11%) either side of a guilt-edge chance for Lewis Dunk (34%). That 10 minutes decided the game.
They have the firepower, but defensively they look so vulnerable, and I’m sure Liverpool will be licking their lips.
I feel as though the champions are being harshly treated following their 4-3 win over Leeds. What I saw was the best team in the league last season beating a team who were crazily clinical with their chances.
Leeds scored three times from six shots equating to 0.33 xG, something that the model calculates had a 0.2% chance of happening. It was a solid defensive display from the champs, barring a Virgil van Dijk error.
The Reds were excellent in attack, and should pull Chelsea in all sorts of directions at the weekend. I see this being a cracking game, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Liverpool win comfortably, but Over 2.5 looks a fair price at 4/7.
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 4/7
Aston Villa vs Sheffield United
Aston Villa get their season underway on Monday, having survived on the final day of last season. They were chalk and cheese pre and post-break from an underlying process perspective, especially in defence.
Prior to the break they averaged a league high 2.41 xGA per game, and in their 10 games post-break they allowed just 1.04 xGA per game – an astonishing turnaround for which Dean Smith deserves a lot of credit.
If they maintain that same level of defensive process, they will be hard to beat this season.
The same goes for Sheffield United, who weren’t bad against Wolves after the first 10 minutes. They were slow out of the traps and the game was over, with the Blades rarely threatening.
Improvements are needed from that display, but we know they are capable of better and Chris Wilder’s side will be much more competitive in this game, though I expect defences to prevail. Although short at 8/13, Under 2.5 goals has to be the play at Villa Park.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 8/13
Everton vs West Brom
Everton were brilliant at Tottenham last weekend, will all three of their new additions making instant impacts in helping the Toffees control the game. Based on xG, a draw would have been a fairer result (xG: TOT 1.28 – 1.29 EVE), with Spurs creating two ‘big chances’ (35% or greater).
While they created plenty of opportunities (15 shots) and constantly looked a dangerous threat, their only ‘big chance’ of the game was Richarlison’s open net miss from a tight angle (39%).
Nonetheless, it was a big step in the right direction.
West Brom were pretty woeful against Leicester, mustering just 0.46 xGF while allowing 2.98 xGA including giving away two clumsy penalties. They looked well off the standard required at this level, and more of the same would almost certainly result in another defeat.
Another defensive approach is expected from the Baggies, and while I expect Everton to win the game, I think West Brom will keep the score down. Under 2.5 goals looks a value price at evens.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at Evens
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Manchester United get their season underway with top-four again the minimum requirement, but if they continue the way they finished last season, that won’t be a problem.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side ranked as the 3rd best team on xG post-January, with their process all season long sitting in the top four, with their defensive numbers (1.13 xGA per game) identical to champions Liverpool at the end of the season.
Crystal Palace got their season off to the perfect start with a victory over much-fancied Southampton, as the Eagles ran out 1-0 winners.
They deserved the three points on the day, despite the fact that they managed just five shots, as the quality of three of those chances were very high (57%, 46%, 46%). I suspect they will struggle to continue in that manner in this game.
Palace will be set up in a much more defensive manner at Old Trafford, and they could do a good job of slowing a rusty Manchester United down. Like the Everton game above, I fancy a home win but perhaps a low-scoring one. Under 2.5 makes appeal at 5/4.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 5/4
Odds correct at 1900 BST (16/09/20)
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