Premier League football predictor and correct score tips: Liverpool to extend United woes, Gunners and City purring

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Correct Score: Manchester United 0-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

• Sky Sports: Monday, 20:00

Monday Night Football sees Manchester United host Liverpool with both teams looking for their first wins of the season.

However, while both are winless, the performances of both couldn't be more polar opposite.

Manchester United have been humiliated in their opening few games, getting bullied by Brighton and Brentford and looking one of the easiest teams the Premier League to play against.

They have allowed a combined 3.53 xGA in those two matches, and their home ground has become the Theatre of Nightmares.

Liverpool have been one of the more unfortunate teams to start the season, drawing both games despite creating more than enough to deserve victories in both.

The Infogol model calculates that, based on the chances created in the game, Liverpool would have won 62% of the time against Fulham and 55% against Palace.

The Reds have had no issue creating chances yet again this term, racking up 2.39 and 2.36 xGF, and despite missing Darwin Nunez for this game after his sending off, if these two teams continue to play in the same manner then the only outcome is a Liverpool win.

Correct Score: Newcastle 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

• Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30

Newcastle hung on for dear life at Brighton last weekend, getting completely out-played but somehow coming away with a point (xG: BHA 1.97 - 0.18 NEW).

Eddie Howe's side return home this weekend where they have been excellent since his appointment, winning nine and losing just two of 15 at St. James' Park.

The two defeats? Games against the best teams in the league last season - Liverpool and this weeks opponents Manchester City.

Excluding those two matches, the Magpies underlying numbers are excellent, but in those two games they were utterly out-played, racking up a combined 0.49 xGF while allowing 5.45 xGA.

They are in a better place now than they were then - particularly in December when they hosted City, but they are still someway off threatening Pep Guardiola's side.

Man City have cruised through the first two gameweeks and sit atop of the table already, with it again being their defence that has caught the eye.

They have allowed just 0.58 xGA and 0.17 xGA in their opening matches, and given they allowed 0.78 xGA per game over last season, we can expect their current levels to continue.

Correct Score: Leeds 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

• Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00

Leeds blew a 2-0 lead with only 20 minutes left at Southampton last weekend, a sign that their fragile underbelly still remains.

Jesse Marsch's side did create the better of the chances, but a poor Saints team managed to stretch them when chasing the game, and a much better Chelsea team should be able to similar.

The Blues were frustrated by a late equaliser themselves against Spurs, though that 2-2 draw was also a fair result based on xG.

Thomas Tuchel's side again created a decent amount of chances, and in their two games thus far have racked up 3.79 xGF, showing plenty in the attacking areas despite question marks over personnel.

They look well placed to get another away win here, as after all, the Blues excelled on the road last term when winning 40 points from a possible 57.

Correct Score: West Ham 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

• Sunday, 14:00

West Ham need defensive reinforcements. Yes, they were unfortunate to lose to Nottingham Forest last weekend according to xG - with Declan Rice's penalty miss proving costly - but the Hammers have conceded a ton of chances in two games.

After allowing 2.23 xGA at home to Manchester City in the opener (as expected), David Moyes's side followed that up by conceding chances equating to 2.19 xGA at Forest.

That is a major problem, and something that needs rectifying sharpish.

Brighton were excellent again last weekend, being incredibly unfortunate not to beat Newcastle after an utterly dominant display at the Amex (xG: BHA 1.97 - 0.18 NEW).

It was the same old story for the Seagulls at home, boss the game and create the better chances but fail to get the win. That hasn't been the case away from home over the last few seasons though.

Only the eventual top four picked up more points on the road than Brighton did last season, with only those same four teams posting better underlying numbers when travelling.

That bodes well for a Brighton win. A strange quirk in this match-up, West Ham haven't beaten Brighton in their last 10 league meetings, with all of the last seven seeing both teams score. More of the same here I expect.

Correct Score: Bournemouth 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

• Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30

Unsurprisingly, Bournemouth were completely bowled over by Manchester City last weekend, losing 4-0 and generating just 0.17 xGF.

That means that after two games, the Cherries have racked up just 0.74 xGF in total, with the early take being that we can expect goals to be hard to come by unless things change.

Scott Parker is clearly looking to play in a difficult-to-beat manner, which could keep the scoreline close as they welcome Arsenal.

The Gunners were dominant against Leicester last weekend, winning the xG battle convincingly as I expected at the Emirates (xG: ARS 3.15 - 0.71 LEI).

Away from home was the area Mikel Arteta's side needed to improve, needing to be more consistent and dominant with their performances.

A road win at Crystal Palace was a start, though that game wasn't as comfortable or dominant as the scoreline suggested (xG: CRY 1.22 - 1.49 ARS), so we may see another Arsenal win here but without the fireworks that occur at the Emirates.

Correct Score: Crystal Palace 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

• Saturday, 15:00

Crystal Palace fought hard for a point at Anfield, and while they were out-played in the most part, the Eagles still managed to rack up some decent chances (xG: LIV 2.36 - 1.52 CRY).

After a tough start to the season, this game has to be seen as calmer waters in which Patrick Vieira's side can excel, particularly at home.

Last season they ranked as the sixth best home team in the league, with their underlying process simply sensational (1.62 xGF, 0.97 xGA per game), and given their decent display at home to Arsenal in the season opener, I think they will hit similar levels this term.

Aston Villa got off the mark thanks to a nervy win over Everton, and while they created plenty of chances, they also allowed a hefty amount to a team who have been toothless since the appointment of their new manager (xG: AVL 2.37 - 2.01 EVE).

That is an issue, as is the injury suffered to Diego Carlos, so Steven Gerrard's side could be vulnerable here.

Palace have a great opportunity to get their first win this weekend.

Correct Score: Everton 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

• Saturday, 15:00

Will we start to see a more open, attack-minded Everton as the season progresses? Maybe, though the fact that they were chasing the game against Aston Villa was probably the reason that the match saw a combined 4.38 xG.

It was yet another defeat for the Toffees, and in both losses this season they have allowed chances equating to more than 2.0 xGA, suggesting their defence is still very gettable - despite the additions made.

Nottingham Forest were also involved in a ding-dong game in their first home match back in the top-flight, with their 1-0 success over West Ham seeing a combined 4.84 xG.

They looked a real threat in attack in that game, but equally as susceptible at the back, and more of the same here could see this one become an entertaining, high-scoring encounter.

However, given Everton's home process since Lampard took charge (1.12 xGF, 1.13 xGA per game), and the fact that this could be seen by both as a fairly big game against a relegation rival, it is more likely we see a cagey game.

Correct Score: Fulham 1-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

• Saturday, 15:00

Fulham impressed at Wolves last time out, and would have won had Aleksandr Mitrovic converted a late penalty (xG: WOL 1.14 - 1.70 FUL).

Marco Silva's side have started the campaign well, but this is another tough test against a Brentford team who have impressed greatly.

The Bees thrashed Manchester United 4-0 thanks to a swashbuckling first half, and that performance means Thomas Frank's side have won the xG battle in both games so far this term.

They have looked sharp defensively as well, allowing just 1.71 xGA across two games, and so Brentford are fancied to prove too strong for the Cottagers.

Correct Score: Leicester 2-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

• Saturday, 15:00

Leicester continue to have major issues, particularly defensively. They have conceded at least twice in both games this term, and last time out allowed 3.15 xGA against Arsenal.

The Foxes have been all over the place at the back for some time now, and there appears no sign of things improving on that front which means they will struggle to win football matches.

They have scored twice in both league outings but have been fortunate to do so, with their four goals scored coming from just 1.29 xGF, so Leicester have also struggled to create good scoring chances.

Southampton are struggling as much, particularly defensively, allowing 2.02 xGA and 1.87 xGA in their two league outings to date.

Since the turn of the year, Saints have played 10 away league games and allowed a whopping 2.41 xGA per game, so goals should flow at the King Power given the defences on show.

Correct Score: Tottenham 2-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

• BT Sport: Saturday, 12:30

Yes, Tottenham were second best on the eye-test last Sunday against Chelsea, but in terms of creating chances, the game was very even (xG: CHE 1.71 - 1.58 TOT).

Infogol calculates that, based on the quality of scoring opportunities in the game, Spurs would avoid defeat 59% of the time.

Spurs return home on a high, and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has been a fortress ever since Antonio Conte took charge, with only the top two ranking better in terms of xP per game.

Their averages of 2.26 xGF and 0.91 xGA per game should frighten visiting Wolves, who aren't the same team who beat Spurs in London back in February.

The Old Gold are winless through two games against two relegation candidates, with their attacking performances again underwhelming, racking up just 1.12 and 1.14 xGF.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Bruno Lage's side draw a blank here, and their defence won't be able to cope with Spurs' attack in what should be a comfortable home win.

This week's Premier League kick-off times (BST) and TV schedule

Saturday 20th August

• Tottenham v Wolves - 12:30 on BT Sport
• Crystal Palace v Aston Villa - 15:00
• Everton v Nottingham Forest - 15:00
• Fulham v Brentford - 15:00
• Leicester v Southampton - 15:00
• Bournemouth v Arsenal - 17:30 on Sky Sports

Sunday 21st August

• Leeds v Chelsea - 14:00 on Sky Sports
• West Ham v Brighton - 14:00
• Newcastle v Manchester City - 16:30 on Sky Sports

Monday 15th August

• Manchester United v Liverpool - 20:00 on Sky Sports

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