The 2019/20 Premier League season finally reaches its conclusion this weekend and preview the betting for all 10 of Sunday's fixtures.
Recommended bets
1pt Chelsea v Wolves half-time score 0-0 at 2/1
1pt Tottenham -1 Goal Handicap at 6/4
1pt Wilfred Ndidi and Aaron Wan-Bissaka 10+ tackles between them at 9/4
1pt Man City to be leading after 15 minutes at 2/1
1pt Arsenal to win to nil at 3/1
0.5pt Tyrone Mings to score anytime at 12/1
Foe details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Arsenal v Watford (George Pitts)
Match Odds: Home 11/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/10
After beating Liverpool and Man City in the space of a few days, it was typical of Arsenal to then lose at Aston Villa.
But it was their third match in a week and came soon after working so hard in that FA Cup semi-final win at Wembley.
Playing another relegation-battling team on the final day, you would not be surprised to see them crumble again, as with Villa and Brighton, although both away. But managerless Watford are on a downward trajectory after the events of the last 10 days and it is hard to see them getting something at the Emirates.
While they should throw the kitchen sink at it – they have no choice – and we want final day drama, we expect an improved Arsenal performance and the story of the Hornets’ season has ultimately been the failure to take their chances.
Considering the Gunners’ improvement in defence since Arteta’s arrival – 11 clean sheets in all competitions – 3/1 on them keeping one here to see out a disappointing league season and rain on Watford’s hopes looks decent value on a home win.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Arsenal to win to nil at 3/1
Opta facts
- Arsenal have won five of their six Premier League home games against Watford (L1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory.
- Watford have conceded at least once in each of their last nine Premier League games – no side is on a longer current run without a clean sheet in the competition.
- Watford are winless in seven Premier League away games (D1 L6), losing each of the last five in a row. The Hornets’ last four Premier League away wins have been against sides who were in the bottom four of the table.
- Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored four goals in his four Premier League games against Watford, though three of these strikes have come at Vicarage Road.
Burnley v Brighton (George Pitts)
Match Odds: Home 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 19/10
A top contender to be the last game on Match of the Day.
Brighton have won just one of their last seven, albeit with some difficult closing fixtures, but back-to-back draws (0-0 and 1-1) have helped them open up a gap over the bottom four.
Graham Potter's side have failed to take their chances throughout this season and it is no surprise they have scored just 17 goals in 18 away games, drawing seven.
Burnley, meanwhile, could secure a top half finish and games with the Clarets are rarely packed with goals. Granted, the final day can produce surprises with the shackles off, but a narrow home win would be no shock. Neither would a dull draw, in truth.
Of their 18 games at Turf Moor this term, 56% have had under 2.5 total goals. There are multiple options here - half-time draw at 6/5, under 2.5 goals at 10/11 or Burnley in a draw no bet at 4/6.
But the most inspiring prices is with the Burnley/unders combinations available. Burnley/under 1.5 total goals at 7/1 is very tempting while Burnley/under 2.5 at 4/1 is a slightly safer but well-priced option.
But, with both sides having little on the line, it is one we will gladly leave out of the staking plan.
Prediction: Burnley 1-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Burnley to win and under 2.5 total goals at 4/1
Opta facts
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last eight league meetings with Brighton, though six of these have ended level (two wins in the 2018-19 Premier League).
- Burnley have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League games (W8 D6) and are unbeaten in their last seven (W4 D3). In those 15 games, the Clarets have conceded just 11 goals, with five of those coming in their only defeat in that run (0-5 v Man City).
- Since their first Premier League campaign in 2017-18, no side has had more 0-0 draws in the competition than Brighton (11).
Chelsea v Wolves (Joe Townsend)
Match Odds: Home 5/6 | Draw 5/2 | Away 3/1
Chelsea need a point to clinch a place in the top four while Wolves have already secured a Europa League qualifying spot - they will, however enter a round further on if they can finish in their current position of sixth rather than seventh.
Nuno's side are a naturally cagey team, especially away from home. Even though they're surely banking on Tottenham to beat Crystal Palace, which would mean they have to win to avoid dropping down a place, I don't think they'll change tact.
Stick that altogether and Under 2.5 Goals at a shade below evens (28/29) looks good, despite goal-happy Chelsea.
What looks even better is the draw at 29/10 which I think is priced incredibly generously. Surely though, if Spurs are winning and Wolves aren't then they'd throw caution to the wind in the closing stages?
Maybe. Which is enough for me to instead go for 0-0 at half-time at 2/1. Seven of Wolves past 10 games have been goalless at the break, with the three that didn't quite make it seeing goals scored in the 43rd, 45th and 41st minutes - so don't be scared to cash out!
Prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Chelsea v Wolves half-time score 0-0 at 2/1
Opta facts
- Chelsea are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League home games against Wolves (W4 D1), last losing against them in the top-flight at Stamford Bridge in March 1979 (1-2).
- When finishing the season at home, Chelsea haven’t lost their final Premier League match since 2001-02 (1-3 vs Aston Villa), winning seven and drawing three since.
- Wolves have lost four of their five closing day matches in the Premier League, winning the other against Sunderland in 2009-10.
- Wolves could become the fourth different side to go through an entire Premier League campaign without any English goalscorers (excluding own goals), after Fulham (2001-02 and 2005-06), Arsenal (2006-07) and Stoke (2015-16). Of those other clubs, only Arsenal in 2006-07 (13) had more different goalscorers than Wolves this season (12).
- Chelsea striker Tammy Abraham has scored in all three of his league appearances against Wolves, netting six goals in total, including a hat-trick in the Blues’ 5-2 win in the reverse fixture.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham (Joe Townsend)
Match Odds: Home 9/2 | Draw 29/10 | Away 11/20
Tottenham have been one of the Premier League's form teams post-lockdown but have received precious little praise for their five wins, two draws and one defeat - Manchester United have collected just one point more from their eight games.
Jose Mourinho's side's terrible 3-0 loss at Sheffield United got plenty of attention, though. Since then they've won four times and drawn once, conceded only two goals and been spearheaded by Harry Kane, who's bagged successive braces.
So sure are the bookies of a Spurs win, that the England captain is only 6/5 for a Score/Win Double. You can get evens on Kane to score anytime but it's odds-on most places. Kane as first goalscorer at 10/3 is the only half decent price.
Crystal Palace have lost seven straight games, only managing to concede fewer than one goal once - 17 have been scored past them in total, with only two in reply. Tottenham should win, and win comfortably so Tottenham -1 Goal Handicap at 6/4 is where I'm going. I'm tempted by Spurs -2 Handicap at 4/1 but that's just getting greedy.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 0-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Tottenham -1 Goal Handicap at 6/4
Opta facts
- Crystal Palace have lost their last nine Premier League games against Tottenham, their longest ever losing streak against an opponent in their top-flight history.
- When playing their last league match of a season at home, Crystal Palace have won their last four final day matches (excluding play-offs), including all three in the Premier League in that time.
- Tottenham’s last four Premier League matches on the final day have produced a total of 27 goals (F15 A12), with Spurs winning two, drawing one and losing one.
- Crystal Palace are on course to becoming just the eighth team to go through an entire Premier League season without scoring more than twice in a match – the Eagles would be the first side to do so without being relegated.
Everton v Bournemouth (George Pitts)
Match Odds: Home 5/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 9/5
Eddie Howe was strongly linked with the vacant position at Goodison in December after Marco Silva’s sacking. What could have been. Now the Cherries boss must beat the team he supported as a boy and hope results go his side's way to ensure Premier League survival.
A goalless draw with Spurs and a surprise 4-1 win over Leicester is all they have to show for post-lockdown football.
This Bournemouth side have some talented individuals, but they have been heading for the drop for some time, with only Norwich (eight) collecting fewer points than their 11 this calendar year.
They're going to have to show some fight and take risks on the final day, which leaves them open at the back, but they can at least trouble a defence and Everton side that still needs plenty of work from Carlo Ancelotti – having won just one of their last five.
With that urgency from Bournemouth, the Toffees can capitalise and a home win with plenty of goals gives us a nice price.
Prediction: Everton 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Everton to win and over 2.5 total goals at 21/10
Opta facts
- Everton have won all four of their Premier League home games against Bournemouth, netting at least twice each time (12 goals in total).
- There have been 35 goals scored in nine Premier League meetings between Everton and Bournemouth (3.9 per game). Among fixtures to have been played at least eight times in the competition, only Blackburn v Nottingham Forest has a higher goals-per-game ratio (4.0 – 40 in 10).
- Among current Premier League players, no-one has scored more match-day 38 goals in the competition than Everton’s Theo Walcott (6).
Leicester City v Manchester United (Joe Townsend)
Match Odds: Home 2/1 | Draw 23/10 | Away 5/4
Like Chelsea, the equation is simple for Manchester United: avoid defeat and they'll finish in the top four. I think they'll win.
For Leicester, while it's as simple as knowing victory will guarantee their spot, the situation is a little more complex. Should Chelsea lose to Wolves, then a point will be enough for the Foxes to overhaul them.
Leicester haven't been great since lockdown and were handed a 3-0 beating by Spurs last time out, but they have won their past two home matches and scored in five of the past six games.
Their two recent home wins have seen tackle king Wilfred Ndidi crunch into six Crystal Palace players and 10 (yes TEN) from Sheffield United. Ndidi 6+ tackles at 21/10 therefore looks inviting. If you really want to chance you're arm, Ndidi 9+ tackles is 14/1 but he's only achieved that twice all season so you'd be being wildly optimistic.
If Ndidi's 4.0 tackles per game average (123 season total) makes him king - really, injured team-mate Ricardo Pereira is on the throne with 4.3 per game (119 season total) - then Man United's Aaron Wan Bissaka is a prince at 3.6 (124 season total). Wan-Bissaka 4+ tackles at evens is a good price.
Stick them together and you've got your best bet.
Prediction: Leicester 1-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Wilfred Ndidi and Aaron Wan-Bissaka 10+ tackles between them at 9/4
Opta facts
- Leicester have won just one of their 13 Premier League home games against Manchester United (D4 L8), beating them 5-3 in September 2014.
- Man Utd are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League matches against Leicester (W7 D3). Only against Aston Villa (15) are they enjoying a longer ongoing unbeaten run among current Premier League sides.
- Manchester United have opened the scoring within the opening 10 minutes in each of their last three Premier League matches against Leicester.
- Leicester have lost just one of their last 12 final league games of the season (W7 D4, excluding play-offs), losing 4-5 at Spurs in 2017-18.
Manchester City v Norwich City (George Pitts)
Match Odds: Home 1/16 | Draw 10/1 | Away 25/1
Norwich exit the Premier League with a tough final game at Manchester City. Can they do the double over Pep Guardiola's side? Highly unlikely.
The Canaries look a far different side to the enthusiastic newcomers that shocked the reigning champions at Carrow Road back in September.
City should win comfortably, as they often do at the Etihad. Players are looking to stake a claim for a place in the side ahead of the Champions League knockouts next month too.
It can often be hard to find value in a City win when the odds are unsurprisingly priced so heavily in their favour - 1/16 to win.
But under Guardiola on home soil, City have regularly burst out of the blocks in the last couple of years and an old trusty with the Sporting Life team is to back them to score early on. City to be leading after 15 minutes at 2/1 is appealing, while a home lead after 30 minutes is 4/6.
The Citizens have scored 10 goals in the first 15 minutes this season (only Liverpool have more with 11), while finding the back of the net a total of 27 times in the opening half hour (more than Liverpool on 22).
Norwich, who have won just once on the road all season and scored a league-worst seven goals away from home, will have been preparing for damage limitation all week, but fresh after scoring four at Watford, City will take some stopping.
Prediction: Manchester City 5-0 Norwich City (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Man City to be leading after 15 minutes at 2/1
Opta facts
- Of all the Premier League fixtures to have been played at least 10 times since the year 2000, Man City v Norwich has the highest goals-per-game ratio (4.27 – 47 in 11 games).
- Manchester City have scored 97 goals in the Premier League this season, and could net 100 in a season for the third time in the competition (also 2013-14 and 2017-18).
- Raheem Sterling has scored 19 Premier League goals this season. He could become the first Englishman to net 20 in a top-flight campaign for Man City since Brian Kidd in 1976-77 (21).
Newcastle United v Liverpool (Joe Townsend)
Match Odds: Home 7/1 | Draw 19/5 | Away 1/3
Newcastle returned to action following the enforced break with a reputation for pinching results by keeping things tight, a reputation that was fair. But since lockdown there has been a complete reversal – they have basically been a classic free-spirited end-of-season team, save for their last outing at Brighton, which ended goalless.
In the Magpies’ eight league matches prior to the hiatus, only twice did both teams score. In fact, by beginning Project Restart with a 3-0 win over Sheffield United, Steve Bruce's side made it six straight games of BTTS – No. Only two of those eight pre-shutdown fixtures involved Over 2.5 Goals, five seeing Under 1.5, with 13 goals in total.
Since lockdown, five of their eight matches have seen both teams score, Under 2.5 Goals has happened only twice and half of their games have seen Over 3.5 Goals. There have been 26 goals scored in total.
Liverpool have banged the goals in all season, but since they clinched the Premier League title they have failed to keep a clean sheet in four matches. The incredible 5-3 win over Chelsea kind of summed up their inconsistency in recent weeks.
In the Reds’ last eight games, only twice has there been Under 2.5 Goals and half of their matches have seen Over 3.5 Goals. There have been 27 goals scored in total.
Newcastle are five games without a victory and I do think the champions will probably win, so both Liverpool and BTTS at 15/8 and Liverpool/Over 3.5 Total Goals at 2/1 are good bets. But final day matches can be funny, and Jurgen Klopp's team might have been partying for four straight nights.
You probably want something better than Both Teams to Score at 17/20 from me, so we'll lean towards the other market.
Prediction: Newcastle 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Over 3.5 Goals at 29/20
Opta facts
- Newcastle have lost their last four Premier League games against Liverpool, last losing more consecutively against them between March 1997-December 1998 (5).
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been involved in five goals in his last four Premier League games against Newcastle (4 goals, 1 assist), finding the net in each of these matches.
- Jonjo Shelvey is Newcastle’s highest Premier League goalscorer this season with six goals – as it stands, it’s the lowest scoring top scorer the Magpies have had in a league campaign since 2000-01 (Carl Cort and Nolberto Solano, 6).
Southampton v Sheffield United (Joe Townsend)
Match Odds: Home 11/8 | Draw 9/4 | Away 15/8
Two teams with nothing to play for usually means goals, but the fly in the ointment is that one of them is managed by Chris Wilder, so having nothing to play for isn't allowed.
And in fairness, it's not strictly true from Sheffield United's perspective. A win will see them finish eighth, but should results go against them on the final day then both Arsenal and Burnley could overtake them.
The Blades deserve so much more than a 10th-placed finish this season, so that should be motivation enough.
Southampton truly have nothing to play for as they will finish 11th or 12th. Only Norwich have collected fewer than Saints' 18 home points this term, so it's tricky to back them on their own patch in any circumstances.
For both sides, four of their past five matches have seen Under 2.5 Goals (it's 28/29 to happen again).
I can't call this one, which makes me plump for the draw.
Prediction: Southampton 1-1 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Draw/Under 2.5 Goals at 7/4
Opta facts
- This is Sheffield United’s first visit to Southampton in any competition since February 2009, when they won 2-1 at St Mary’s in a Championship match.
- There has been a red card in each of the last five meetings between Southampton and Sheffield United in all competitions (3 for Southampton, 2 for Sheffield United).
- Southampton have won their final game in just one of their last nine Premier League seasons (D3 L5), beating Crystal Palace 4-1 in 2015-16.
- Sheffield United have the highest difference between expected goals conceded and actual goals conceded in the Premier League this season (13) – they’ve shipped just 36 goals, but based on the quality of chances they’ve faced have an expected goals against figure of 49.
West Ham v Aston Villa (George Pitts)
Match Odds: Home 21/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/10
After going unbeaten in their last three games, scoring eight and collecting seven points, you wonder if it is a corner turned for West Ham. With job done and the pressure of relegation now off, they could put in another good performance. But the hunger and desire of Aston Villa should shine through.
Dean Smith’s side know that a win here, matching or bettering Watford’s result, would guarantee their top-flight status.
Jack Grealish revealed on Tuesday how Villa have improved defensively and at set pieces at both ends thanks to hard work on their shape, done on Zoom, over lockdown. They scored from a free-kick at Everton and a corner against Arsenal, centre-back Ezri Konsa finding the back of the net at Goodison while Tyrone Mings provided the assist against the Gunners.
They've scored 15 from set pieces this term, while West Ham have conceded 10 and David Moyes’ side still remain shaky at the back.
So it's incredibly tempting to back either centre-back to get a vital goal here in what could be a cagey game - and when Mings is at 12s and Konsa at a best price of 18/1. Mings’ presence in the opposition box makes him the preference for a small play.
Despite Villa’s improved defence, having to go for it could mean they need to score a couple to be sure of their status. A shade under evens for them to net at least a couple looks a good option to get them over the line.
Prediction: West Ham 0-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bets:
Opta facts
- Since the Premier League resumed in June, West Ham have earned 11 points from their eight games (W3 D2 L3); this is as many as they had accrued across the 15 such matches directly before the season was temporarily suspended in March (W3 D2 L10).
- Aston Villa are looking to avoid being the 10th side to fail to record a clean sheet on the road in a Premier League campaign. For the Villans, it would be the second occasion that they’ve not had a shutout away from home in a single season in the competition (also, 2010/11).
- Aston Villa’s Trézéguet has scored three goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 30 in the competition.
Odds correct as of 2200 BST on 23/07/20
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
