George Pitts looks ahead to Sunday's final round of Premier League fixtures and the conclusion of a gripping title race.
Recommended bets
1pt Bernardo Silva to score anytime in Brighton v Man City at 13/5
1pt Wolves to score 1+ goals v Liverpool at 17/20
1pt Leicester to be winning at half-time v Chelsea at 21/10
1pt time of first goal in Southampton v Huddersfield - 0-15 minutes at 9/5
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Fixtures
- Brighton and Hove Albion v Manchester City
- Burnley v Arsenal
- Crystal Palace v AFC Bournemouth
- Fulham v Newcastle United
- Leicester City v Chelsea
- Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Manchester United v Cardiff City
- Southampton v Huddersfield Town
- Tottenham Hotspur v Everton
- Watford v West Ham United
All matches are due to get underway at 1500 BST on Sunday, May 12
- Have you entered this week's Soccer Saturday Super 6? Predict six correct scores to win Jeff's £250,000 - click here to enter for FREE now
Brighton v Man City
- Sky Sports Main Event
A huge match on the south coast. With the trophy in sight (quite literally on Sunday), it is very difficult to see City slipping up now, yet should they do so they will likely pay the ultimate price.
Brighton have avoided the drop and their performance really could go either way - lacklustre with the players already thinking of their holidays, or make it tough with the pressure off. Knowing Chris Hughton and his standards, you would expect the latter in front of their own fans at the Amex.
The last time City lost on the final day? Norwich in 2013. The man in charge of the Canaries on that day was Hughton. He's not the type to allow players to lose focus, even now.
Since their wake-up call at Newcastle, Manchester City have won 13 in a row to put themselves in the driver's seat and, regardless of Brighton's attitude, they should see it through and quite comfortably in the end.
Bernardo Silva, who we successfully backed to find the back of the net in the Manchester derby, looks the best betting angle here.
The Portuguese star has since had 10 shots in his last two games and been a real start of City's title assault.
He has scored 13 and assisted 12 in all competitions and was deservedly shortlisted for both PFA Player of the Year and Young Player of the Year.
He should start in City's front three and the price just short of 3/1 on Silva anytime is too good to pass up.
SUPER 6 prediction: Brighton 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Bernardo Silva to score anytime at 13/5
Liverpool v Wolves
- Sky Sports Premier League
While of course much of the focus has been on whether Brighton can throw a spanner in the works and get a result against Manchester City, under that scenario there's no guarantee that Liverpool keep up their end of the bargain as they welcome Wolves to a bouncing Anfield.
After the high of beating Barcelona 4-0 to reach the Champions League final in midweek, the Reds must regain focus for Sunday. The Kop will be no doubt loud as ever and Jurgen Klopp will want to make sure his side are ready in the event of City dropping points at the Amex.
Wolves' record against the big six is a slight cause for concern - they have taken points from Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United, City and Tottenham this term. They lost at home to Liverpool in December, before beating them in the FA Cup weeks later, and they will want to complete the set by getting something here to end a fine season on a high.
Nuno Espirito Santo's side have cemented their place in seventh, though, and Liverpool's hunger should just see them through. Saying that, the way this week has panned out would it really be that much of a surprise if both City and Liverpool dropped points?
With the odds massively in Liverpool's favour, backing Wolves to get on the score sheet at just under evens does carry some appeal. Santo's side scored in their away trips to United, Tottenham, Arsenal and Chelsea and should make it difficult for Klopp's men.
SUPER 6 prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Wolves to score 1+ goals at 17/20
Burnley v Arsenal
Arsenal boss Unai Emery said last week that the Europa League is now his priority for the rest of the season - not that he had much choice after a hopeless Premier League run.
Winning Europe's secondary competition means silverware - fantastic for Emery in his first season at the Emirates - and qualification for the Champions League, which they can no longer achieve domestically.
So, after their semi-final second leg win over Valencia on Thursday, where they fielded a strong team, a tough trip to Turf Moor looks far from ideal for a side who have been poor on the road all year, Spanish cruise notwithstanding.
Sean Dyche's Clarets have managed to avoid safety, thanks in part to some impressive home results which include wins over Tottenham and Wolves, as well as a hard-earned 2-2 draw against Chelsea.
With Arsenal playing just three days on from their Valencia heroics, they are there for the taking. There was a temptation to get stuck into Burnley in the double-chance market, but at 7/5 draw-no-bet is preferred.
SUPER 6 prediction: Burnley 2-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Burnley - draw no bet at 7/5
Leicester v Chelsea
Leicester's odds to beat Chelsea have shortened dramatically after Thursday's Europa League match.
Chelsea were taken to extra-time and penalties as they scraped through to the final and, as is the case with Arsenal's trip to Burnley, they now face a game which might be hard to get up for.
That said, Chelsea do at least have further incentive: third place. They'll keep it if they equal Spurs' result and at the end of a turbulent first season under Maurizio Sarri, third place behind a runaway pair and a Europa League final would look a decent end result.
Still, the Blues looked edgy against Frankfurt and Leicester's extra rest can work in their favour as they look to consolidate ninth place - and potentially even pip Everton to eighth.
They are short enough at 11/8 to win the match, but upwards of 2/1 on them to be leading at half-time is worth a bet.
Brendan Rodgers' side can make the most of Chelsea playing 120 minutes just three days earlier by starting quickly in front of their own fans.
Backing City to score two or more at evens is worth considering too, but a half-time lead is the preference for Leicester, who ran out 3-0 winners against Arsenal in their last home game and can end the season with a high-profile double.
SUPER 6 prediction: Leicester 2-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Manchester United v Cardiff
After brief hope of survival, Cardiff have lost six of their last seven and failed to score in four of those defeats.
United have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 14 - can this be the game they end that poor defensive run? Possibly, but the preference is to stay clear of backing them to do so.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - against his former side, don't forget - could hand some youth players an opportunity, but Juan Mata is one senior player who is expected to start and the price on the Spaniard to get a shot on target stands out.
He has had three efforts in his last two appearances and, with Romelu Lukaku out, Mata's supporting role to the forwards could be key and he should get a couple of sights on goal.
Cardiff will want to go out on a high and they will make it tough, but you would expect United to dominate possession and have plenty of chances - so Mata is worth a look.
SUPER 6 prediction: Man United 2-0 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Juan Mata 1+ shots on target at 6/5
Tottenham v Everton
After such a high in the Champions League in midweek, Tottenham must come back down to earth for their final Premier League clash with Everton.
Spurs may be European finalists, but they have taken their eye off the ball in the Premier League with successive defeats.
With Heung-min Son's suspension, a couple of injuries which mean Eric Dier slots into central defence and feeling the effects of midweek, Spurs could be slow to start on Sunday with a top-four finish already secured.
They cannot afford to be off their game as they face an in-form Everton side who have lost just one of their last seven. Five of those have been wins and six of them clean sheets, so they have built momentum to finish strongly under Marco Silva.
Everton can at least get a point in their first game at Spurs' new stadium, but the preference is to back them to open the scoring.
Their wins over Burnley, United, Arsenal and West Ham all came after grabbing goals in the first 20 minutes and their fresh legs could prove the difference in netting first.
SUPER 6 prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Everton to score first in their game with Tottenham at 13/10
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth
A mid-table final clash which really could go either way - a bore draw or a high-scoring and entertaining encounter with the pressure off both teams.
Palace have the second-worst home record in the league this term, while Bournemouth are in the bottom six in the away league table.
The Eagles' home wins have been against teams outside the top seven - Burnley, Leicester, Fulham and Huddersfield - while Bournemouth have been incredibly inconsistent 2019, so it would be typical of them to lose after beating Tottenham.
A win here could help Palace finish top of the bottom half and Roy Hodgson's Eagles are unbeaten in their last three. They can extend that run to four and finish the season on a high.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Crystal Palace to win and under 3.5 total goals at 21/10
Fulham v Newcastle
Since relegation, Fulham have picked up three wins from four - and that defeat came after conceding in the final quarter of an hour at Wolves.
Scott Parker's troops have won their last two fixtures at Craven Cottage, scoring four without conceding, which bodes well for the former midfielder's hopes of getting the job on a permanent basis.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have lost their last two since safety was confirmed with a convincing win against Southampton. Rafa Benitez's side have won just three away from home all season and this is one you could see them dropping points in with so little to play for.
Aleksandar Mitrovic - who is set to attract plenty of interest this summer - will be keen to score against his former club, but the preferred option is to back a home win-to-nil.
The Cottagers kept Newcastle out in the reverse fixture and, with their improvement under Parker and the Magpies' struggles on the road, Fulham can triumph again and bow out on a high.
Prediction: Fulham 1-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Fulham to win-to-nil at 4/1
Southampton v Huddersfield
Two sides who made management changes midway through the season in hope of retaining their Premier League status.
Southampton have improved under Ralph Hasenhuttl and it will be interesting to see how they develop under the Austrian next term. They have not won in their last four since successfully steering clear of the drop but this is a great chance to end the campaign with a win.
Huddersfield, meanwhile, have won just once under Jan Siewert and will bow out here before returning to the Sky Bet Championship.
Saints were unfortunate not to win their last home outing, scoring three and still drawing with Bournemouth. Their form at St Mary's has improved and it is difficult to see them coming unstuck on Sunday.
They have scored inside in the opening 15 minutes in four of their last six games and the 9/5 price available on the first goal to come in this time frame makes it worth a small play.
Prediction: Southampton 3-0 Huddersfield (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Time of first goal - 0-15 minutes at 9/5
Watford v West Ham
Watford have had a bit of a hiccup since booking their place in next week's FA Cup final.
Javi Gracia's side have won just one in their last five games, but they have had some tough fixtures and can prepare for their Wembley outing with at least a point on the last day of the Premier League season.
After such a difficult start, Manuel Pellegrini's West Ham have improved as the season's gone on - as Alex Keble notes here - and it could be tough to separate the two at Vicarage Road.
There is nothing that stands out too much from this one, but the fact Watford have not kept a clean sheet in their last 13 in all competitions, while West Ham have conceded in 10 of their last 11 on the road, suggests both teams to score is the solid option despite a short price.
Prediction: Watford 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: BTTS at 1/2
- Don't forget to enter this week's Soccer Saturday Super 6. Predict 6 correct scores to win Jeff's £250,000 - click here for more
Odds correct as of 1100 BST on 10/05/19
