Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff) turns his attention to the late game in the Premier League on Boxing Day as Manchester United host Aston Villa.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa to beat Manchester United at 17/10 (General)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 12/1
Douglas Luiz 1+ shots on target
10+ match corners
Aston Villa 2+ goals
Bruno Fernandes 2+ tackles
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday (Boxing Day)
TV channel: Amazon Prime Video
Home 6/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 8/5
Only Sheffield United have scored fewer goals than Manchester United this season. This is a preview for a game taking place on Boxing Day.
They're level with Luton, but the Hatters do possess a game in-hand. United have failed to find the net in each of their last four outings.
Out of the Champions League after finishing bottom of the group and lingering outside of the European places, a desperation for stability seemingly saving Erik ten Hag from true criticism.
The triumphant trio of Ole Gunnar Solskjær, Michael Carrick and Ralf Rangnick had them fourth with 33 points at this stage in 21/22 - they had also progressed top of their European group.
David Moyes the meme man gained three more points after 18 games in 2013. They also had a better defensive record in terms of goals conceded and scored nearly twice as much (31 to 18).
Value in a Villa victory
You can get an ASTON VILLA WIN around the 17/10 marker in places, which looks a decent enough value play considering the contrasting forms of the two sides.
Chelsea are the only top half team that United have beaten this season, and they are only just holding onto that tenth position.
Six of the other seven games have ended in defeat. Brighton and Manchester City each scored three in victory at Old Trafford. Five of the seven have seen Ten Hag's side fail to score.
I've spent a long time hammering Manchester United there, so here's the attention that Villa so rightly deserve.
They will view that game against Sheffield United as a missed opportunity. Victory there instead of a draw would have put them top on Christmas Day - a huge achievement.
The home form has been a big factor as to why but they have also gained points on the road - sitting sixth in the away standings while beating Brentford, Chelsea and Tottenham.
Villa remain a part of this title race and, while they may ultimately fall short, I can't see them dropping out of it altogether. There's a good mix of talent throughout this squad.
Unless it's a game against the other big title contenders, we're at a point where it's hard to turn down a price like 17/10 on Villa winning, regardless of the location.
Look at Luiz
There are a few Villa players you can focus on when it comes to the attacking markets.
Ollie Watkins is naturally the main one, but prices are short, as you'd expect, so the better value can be found by going elsewhere.
DOUGLAS LUIZ 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET is the opener for our Boxing Day multiple, with the midfielder playing his part going forward.
His 31 shots in the Premier League so far is the second-highest in this Villa side. From those, 29% have been on target.
Only Bournemouth (15.7), Luton (17.5) and Sheffield United (17.7) average more shots conceded per game than Manchester United (15.7). Away games play a part in this, but it's still 12.8 in games at Old Trafford.
A note here that Luiz is Villa's penalty taker, so that adds to the potential of this bet alongside the open play threat.
Count the corners
This looks like a game that has the potential for plenty of corners.
Both have the ability to counter attack with pace, while United's attempted use of their width opens up the opportunity for blocked crosses behind.
Taking 10+ MATCH CORNERS feels like a good enough number to target.
As ever with corners betting, game state plays a part and it could be the case here if the away side do strike first.
Go for goals
I've already discussed why the away side look value for victory, but if you're not comfortable going into the match market, ASTON VILLA 2+ GOALS looks a tad safer.
Only Manchester City (40) have scored more than Unai Emery's side (38) this season. United's 14 against at home is 'beaten' only by Sheffield United (21) and Burnley (22).
Ten of Villa's league games so far have seen them achieve this, and that includes contests against Brighton and West Ham who sit around United in the table.
Focus on Fernandes
As expected, Bruno Fernandes returned to the United side in the 2-0 away defeat to West Ham.
It was a game that extended a run in a particular metric. That being tackles, meaning he's had at least one successful in each of his last 11 league outings.
Therefore, our final selection in the recommended four for the multiple is BRUNO FERNANDES 2+ TACKLES.
This is something he has achieved in ten of his 17 games in England's top-flight this season, while also seeing three of more in half of his Champions League games.
What about Watkins?
Watkins' efforts in front of the Villa goal has already been discussed, but he does contribute with assists as well.
If you're after something at a bigger price, adding WATKINS 1+ ASSISTS to a long list looks a value play at 4/1.
Alongside his nine goals, Watkins has eight assists in the Premier League (if you also factor in penalties won). It's not a huge surprise when we look at the numbers.
Only Lucas Digne (1.6) averages more key passes per league game than Watkins (1.5), with two coming in each of the recent away games at Bournemouth and Brentford.
Team news
Given the quick turnaround in fixtures, it's unclear how many returning players Manchester United will have on Boxing Day.
Anthony Martial and Raphael Varane missed the game at West Ham with illness, while Casemiro, Victor Lindelof, Harry Maguire, Tyrell Malacia, Lisandro Martinez and Mason Mount were all sidelined with injury.
Jadon Sancho remains unavailable for selection and focus will be on a potential January departure.
For the visitors, Emi Buendia is out with a knee injury, as is Tyrone Mings, while Youri Tielemans is also likely to miss out.
Right-back Matty Cash and midfielder Boubacar Kamara serve suspensions.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester United XI: Onana; Dalot, Varane, Evans, Shaw; McTominay, Mainoo; Antony, Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund.
Aston Villa XI: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Lenglet, Digne; Ramsey, Luiz; Bailey, Diaby, McGinn; Watkins.
Match facts
- Aston Villa have won two of their last four Premier League games against Manchester United (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 51 against them (D12 L37).
- In English league history, Manchester United (53) and Aston Villa (46) are the two sides with the most wins on Boxing Day. The Red Devils also hold the record for most such victories in the top-flight (44) and Premier League (21).
- Manchester United have lost four of their last seven Premier League home games (W3) double the amount they had in their previous 34 at Old Trafford (W25 D7 L2). They’ve conceded 3+ goals in three different Premier League games at home this season, only doing so more often in 2020-21 (4).
- In all competitions, Manchester United have lost seven of their last 12 home games (W5). They’ve had three runs of consecutive defeats in that time (including losing their last two), last losing three in a row at home in October 1962 under Matt Busby.
- Aston Villa have lost just one of their last six Premier League away games (W3 D2), going down 2-0 at Nottingham Forest in November. However, they’re yet to win consecutive league games on the road this season, while three of their four away wins overall have come in London (v Chelsea, Tottenham and Brentford).
- Manchester United have scored just 10 goals at home in the Premier League this season, their joint-fewest after nine games in the competition (also 10 in 2015-16). 40% of these have been scored by Scott McTominay (4), with the Scot the only player to score more than once for the Red Devils at home so far in the league.
- Ollie Watkins has been directly involved in eight goals in his nine Premier League away games this season, scoring four and assisting four. All eight of these have either put Aston Villa in the lead (4) or drawn them level (4) in the match.
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (24/12/23)
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