Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Alexis Mac Allister & Conor Gallagher both to be carded at 12/1 (bet365)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 6/1
Liverpool 2+ goals
Liverpool 5+ corners
Enzo Fernandez 3+ tackles
Conor Gallagher to commit 2+ fouls
The Kübler-Ross model outlines that there are five stages of grief - denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.
I'd guess we're currently still at the 'anger' point of Jürgen Klopp's recently announced summer exit, the disbelief that a successful spell at Anfield is reaching its conclusion and what (or who) else may go with him.
Said model has its flaws mind, as does any, and such criticism includes that no evidence has been presented that people actually do move through the stages - Liverpool fans may, understandable, prove this to be true.
They were a strong fancy for the title anyway but motivation levels have increased as they look to end things in the best way possible. Anfield will continue to be a fortress for the remainder of the campaign.
Yet at around the 1/2 marker, there is little appeal in going into the 1X2 markets. There is something in taking them to cover the -1 handicap at least - something they've done in seven of their ten home league games this season.
This column prefers to focus on the other markets, finding those angles that'll make up a good multiple. In high profile games such as this, there are usually a few ways to go about it.
Count the cards
The likely competitive nature of this fixture, combined with Paul Tierney's appointment as referee, should lead to cards being dished out.
The official averages 4.0 a game, although it typically goes over that in games between big hitters. Manchester City's recent FA Cup win over Tottenham delivered seven while there were five in the Manchester derby.
The season-high saw eight yellows and a red as Wolves secured an away win at Bournemouth in October.
At a best price of 12/1, you can get ALEXIS MAC ALLISTER & CONOR GALLAGHER TO BE CARDED, which looks appealing value when we consider their positions on the pitch.
Gallagher always feels like the obvious Chelsea candidate in this market yet he has somehow only been shown four yellows in the Premier League this season.
He's committed 2+ FOULS in 13 of his 20 league appearances, and that's a bet to consider for a multiple if you're not after a card, with tricky games often seeing the count go higher.
The home draw with Manchester City saw five, with games against Brighton and Newcastle delivering four in each.
For Mac Allister, he's typically Liverpool's deepest midfielder but does have the licence (cliché) to get forward and attack.
The World Cup winner has committed a foul in 13 of his 16 league games this season, with a staggering nine successful tackles in the recent away win at Bournemouth.
Always the same...
I feel like I look towards this tip in every single Liverpool preview, but it's one that's well worth adding when it comes to building multiples involving the Reds.
Seeing an average of 7.60 per home game, this looks the sort of fixture where they can hit 5+ CORNERS once again.
The bonus is that they won't even slow down with the lead, their attacking mentality often leads to the ball being deflected behind.
That approach also leads to goals, and you can couple up the corners bet with LIVERPOOL 2+ GOALS for a price floating around even money.
They've achieved this in eight of their ten home Premier League games this season, with the overall figure standing at 71% at all venues.
Couple that with Chelsea conceding two or more in 60% of their away games and the potential is there for it to happen again.
Focus on Fernandez
Chelsea's central midfield area is fairly set, although they seem to rotate between ENZO FERNANDEZ and Gallagher being the most advanced of the trio.
Regardless of where he is, Fernandez contributes defensively, making 3+ TACKLES another good option for a multiple.
Five of his last six away league starts have delivered at least a couple of successful efforts, with three tackles in the recent home win over Fulham.
Team news
Mohamed Salah remains out for Liverpool, although that would have been the case anyway before his injury with Egypt at AFCON.
Thiago Alcântara, Stefan Bajcetic, Joël Matip and Kostas Tsimikas are the others missing through injury. Midfielder Wataru Endo is still with Japan at the Asian Cup.
For Chelsea, they are still without a number of players. Marc Cucurella, Wesley Fofana, Reece James, Romeo Lavia, Robert Sanchez and Lesley Ugochukwu will definitely be missing.
Malo Gusto and Christopher Nkunku are back training with the squad. Nicolas Jackson could be involved in some capacity if he arrives back from AFCON in time following Senegal's exit.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool XI: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, van Dijk, Gomez; Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Jones; Jota, Nunez, Diaz.
Chelsea XI: Petrovic; Gusto, Disasi, Silva, Chilwell; Caicedo, Fernandez, Gallagher; Madueke, Palmer, Sterling.
Match facts
- Liverpool have won their last three Premier League games, beating Newcastle 4-2 and Bournemouth 4-0 in their last two. The Reds last won three consecutive league games while netting 4+ goals each time in November/December 2021.
- Chelsea have won each of their last three Premier League games, as many as their previous 10 beforehand (D2 L5). Mauricio Pochettino could become the first Chelsea manager to win four successive league matches with the club since Thomas Tuchel from January to March 2022 (5).
- Liverpool have won 19 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season, more than any other side. Indeed, only in three different Premier League campaigns have they earned more such points – 22 in 2008-09, 20 in 1993-94 and 20 in 2021-22.
- Jürgen Klopp has won 199 of his 317 Premier League games in charge of Liverpool. He would be the seventh manager to reach 200 wins in the competition, with victory in this game making him the second fastest (318 games) to reach the milestone after Pep Guardiola (269 games).
- With seven goals and six assists, Liverpool’s Darwin Núñez has been involved in more goals in 20 Premier League appearances this season (13) than he was in 29 games last term (12 – 9 goals, 3 assists). Four of his seven goals this season have been the winner, with no player netting more winning goals so far this term.
- Since October 7th 2023 – when he netted his first Premier League goal against Burnley – only Mohamed Salah (11) has scored more Premier League goals than Chelsea forward Cole Palmer (9). Four of Palmer’s nine strikes have been the winner, with no player netting more winning goals so far this term.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (30/01/24)
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