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Premier League cheat sheet: Liverpool vs Arsenal tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff) enjoyed a winner at 11/8 in his last Cheat Sheet column. This edition looks at Liverpool's meeting with Arsenal on Saturday night.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Mohamed Salah 1+ assists at 7/2 (Paddy Power)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 10/1
Mohamed Salah 2+ shots on target
Martin Odegaard to commit 1+ fouls
Gabriel Martinelli 1+ tackles
Liverpool 5+ corners
The penultimate game before Christmas and one that will have the deciding factor on who sits top of the tree as we tuck into the pigs in blankets on Monday.
The winner will be in first - although an unlikely sensational Villa win could deny that - and Manchester City's weekend at the Club World Cup opens a perfect opportunity to push further pressure on Pep Guardiola's defending champions.
The Gunners do have a chance but we can't ignore Liverpool's remarkable home form in recent years. They're unbeaten at Anfield this season - seven of eight ending in victory - while, bizarrely, Jesse Marsch's Leeds were the only team to secure maximum returns in 22/23.
Arsenal are a serious outfit once again but consideration must always be given when Liverpool are pushing 6/4 as a home team.
As ever with the Cheat Sheet column though, better value can be found outside of the main match market.
Side with Salah
There has been some talk of a reinvented role of sorts for MOHAMED SALAH this season, a focus on being a creator rather than a goalscorer, and I understand that when you look at the Liverpool set-up.
You can get 7/2 on SALAH 1+ ASSISTS, which is where the best bet can be found in this game.
He's boasting better assist averages than he has in recent years. Currently, Salah is producing at an average rate of 0.41 assists per 90 minutes - that is the highest we have seen from him in a Liverpool shirt.
Recent years perhaps indicate a changing role - the figure stood at 0.33 in 22/23 and 0.36 the season before - yet the odds focus largely on his scoring impact, rather than his ability to deliver the helpers too.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing SALAH TO SCORE ANYTIME as his goalscoring numbers remain impressive, although it won't make my staking plan.
In 24 games across all competitions, the winger has 15 goals. Going at a rate of 0.76 goals per 90 tops last season's 0.63 and the 0.70 in the campaign prior.
As ever, if you're not after backing a player for direct goal involvement, SALAH 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET is a good starting point for a Saturday multiple.
Salah's averaging 3.1 shots per Premier League game, with 1.5 of those on target. That latter figures jumps up significantly to 2.3 in home contests.
Do the defensive work
On the Arsenal side of things, my focus is on what they are likely to do out of possession.
The first one to consider is MARTIN ODEGAARD 1+ FOULS. While he's better known for his creativity and goal involvement, he has hit this tally in recent weeks.
Four of his last five Premier League games have seen Odegaard commit at least one foul, with two or more coming in three of his last four.
There were a total of 44 fouls across the two games between these sides last season - it could get scrappy at points.
With Salah's impact down Liverpool's right, GABRIEL MARTINELLI will be expected to contribute defensively, making his 1+ TACKLES price worth adding.
He's achieved this in four of his seven league away games this season, although one of those where he didn't saw him go off through injury in the first-half against Everton.
Count the corners
Liverpool are one of the leading sides for CORNERS taken in home games this season.
Jürgen Klopp's side average 8.13 per home league contest, making LIVERPOOL 5+ CORNERS a solid addition to our multiple.
They've taken 12 in each of their last two Anfield outings in all competitions. An early Arsenal goal would be a nice helper for this.
Team news
Klopp could be forced to make some changes to his midfield, with Ryan Gravenberch a doubt for involvement with a thigh injury.
Curtis Jones' brilliant performance in midweek makes him a prime candidate for another start, with Stefan Bajcetic, Alexis Mac Allister and Thiago also out.
Joel Matip remains a long-term absentee while left-back Andy Robertson will also be missing from the back line.
For Arsenal, Jorginho remains a doubt, as does Mohamed Elneny, although he returned to training on Friday. Jurrien Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu also miss out.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool XI: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, van Dijk, Tsmikas; Endo, Szoboszlai, Jones; Salah, Nunez, Diaz.
Arsenal XI: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Rice, Odegaard, Havertz; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli.
Match facts
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 home Premier League games against Arsenal (W7 D3). The Reds have fallen behind in five of those games without losing, including a 2-2 draw last season from 2-0 down.
- Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 15 Premier League matches against Liverpool, shipping 43 goals. Since the start of that run (a 0-0 draw in August 2015), that is the most goals they have shipped against an opponent.
- This is Liverpool’s 100th home game against Arsenal in league competition, just the second side to visit the Reds as many times after Everton (105). Liverpool have only won more league games against Aston Villa (59) and Newcastle (58) than against the Gunners (55), though only Manchester United (25) have won more visits than Arsenal (24).
- Liverpool drew 0-0 with Manchester United last time out, despite having 34 shots in the match. This ended their run of scoring in 26 consecutive Premier League games, while they haven’t failed to score in consecutive home league games since February/March 2021 (a run of three).
- Arsenal have won 24 of their 39 Premier League matches in 2023 (D8 L7). They won 25 in 2022 and are looking to win 25+ league games in consecutive calendar years for the first time in their history.
- Liverpool have had more shots (314) than any other Premier League side this season, while only Newcastle (35.2) have a higher xG than the Reds (35). However, Arsenal have faced the fewest shots on target (43) and have the lowest xG against (13) in the competition this term.
- Gabriel Martinelli has scored more goals against Liverpool for Arsenal than he has any other opponent (4). He both scored and assisted in both of the Gunners’ Premier League games against the Reds last season.
- In his career in English football, Arsenal forward Gabriel Jesus has only been involved in more goals in all competitions against Watford (12) than he has against Liverpool (9 – 6 goals, 3 assists). He’s either scored (1) or assisted (2) on each of his last three visits to Anfield, netting Arsenal’s second goal in their 2-2 draw last season.
- Trent Alexander-Arnold has six Premier League assists against Arsenal, more than he does against any other opponent, with five of those coming at Anfield. Indeed, only Steven Gerrard (7) has more assists against the Gunners in Premier League history.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (22/12/23)
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