An 11/2 bookings bet rates as Andy Schooler's best for Leicester v West Brom - Monday night's Premier League game.
Leicester v West Brom (2000 BST, Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event)
At the height of summer, these two sides both made decent starts to the campaign but, as we prepare for the clocks to go back, things are looking somewhat, well, gloomy.
Leicester will start this one in the relegation zone, while West Brom have not won in six and are conceding goals at a rate which will alarm boss Tony Pulis.
The international break will have given both a chance to regroup and unlike some of their Premier League contemporaries, both managers will have had some decent time on the training ground with their players given the game has been moved to the Monday Night Football slot.
Leicester are around even money to pick up what would be only their second win of the season and that seems a fair assessment.
Their start has been particularly tough and they’ve been beaten by a single goal by Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool so far. They could easily have got something out of the games against the former and the latter and confidence will surely not be too low despite their lack of points.
Jamie Vardy has certainly been a plus point and his five goals so far have been deserved thanks to his livewire performances.
He’s fit again after missing England duty and should be a threat to a visitors’ backline which has shipped two or more goals in four of its last five outings.
That’s unusual for a Pulis team and all those involved with the Baggies were left frustrated last time out when they failed to convert a two-goal lead against Watford, eventually being forced to settle for a 2-2 draw.
I’m largely in agreement with the match odds and wouldn’t put too many off backing Vardy in the anytime scorer market at 6/4.
However, a better way to make a profit is to focus on how the game may well unfold and then head to one of the cards markets.
While Leicester are known for their lack of possession, they will be expected to do more of the pressing in this one with West Brom also looking to play on the break as much as possible. In fact, the Baggies are the only side to see the ball less than Leicester this season.
I'd expect both sides will look to encourage the other on before breaking at speed and that could well leave certain players exposed.
Foxes midfielder Wilfred Ndidi very much falls into this category and 11/2 (Sky Bet) about him being carded looks a good bet.
The 20-year-old has been booked in two of his last five games (both yellows coming at the King Power) and can often be left to cover as others go forward.
Those others include Harry Maguire, a ball-playing defender who loves to surge forward a la Ronald Koeman in his heyday.
One of the criticisms of Foxes fans of late has been how their side can get caught out like this and many have also pointed out that the youngster has looked jaded having played every game so far this season.
Last week’s trip to Nigeria for a crucial World Cup qualifier (he played the full 90 minutes) won’t have helped on that score but with Danny Drinkwater sold, no replacement signed and Matty James injured, he looks sure to start again.
The tough-tackler has already conceded 12 fouls in seven league games this term, putting him well inside the top 20 ‘foulers’ in the division and I just can’t have him at 11/2 to pick up a card during this contest.
The referee is Mike Dean, who produced 10 yellows and one red in a game earlier this season, while in two of his other four he’s managed at least four bookings.
So there’s little off-putting on the officiating front and plenty to encourage a bet on Ndidi going into the notebook at some stage.
Prediction: Leicester 2-1 West Brom
Recommended bet
1pt Wilfred Ndidi to be carded at 11/2
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Posted at 1915 BST on 15/10/17.
