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Football betting tips: Premier League title preview for the 2017/18 season
Matt Brocklebank tipped Chelsea to win the Premier League at a tasty 13/2 last year and has 19/10 and 11/1 recommendations as he looks to highlight more top-flight value in the title betting.
Recommended bets: 2017/18 Premier League title
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The likelihood of an extra dozen games or so is, on its own, not enough of a deterrent in regards to siding with Chelsea bucking the trend and following up last year’s Premier League triumph.
This is a squad structured to compete on all fronts and, while certainly benefiting from a quieter schedule on the way to taking top spot in May, it’s one which has done just that as recently as a couple of years ago.
In 2015 Chelsea won the title, took more domestic honours in the League Cup while also making it through to the last 16 of the Champions League.
Would Antonio Conte be happy with a similar return this time around? It’s hard to argue he wouldn’t, yet the return of European football inevitably makes the whole year much tougher and replicating that single-minded Premier League focus of last term will be almost impossible.
No team has gone back-to-back since Manchester United in 2008/2009 and a glance at the fixture list shows Chelsea appear to have it rougher than the three other Champions League qualifiers.
Immediately after each of their first four European nights this season - games which have tended to cause issues for even the strongest of English teams in the past - they face Arsenal (h), Manchester City (h), Man United (h) and Liverpool (a) which does look fairly daunting to say the least, albeit the majority coming at Stamford Bridge.
Having said that, after winning the Scudetto in his first year in charge of Juventus, Conte didn’t let go of it until resigning from the club two years further down the line, also winning two Supercoppa trophies and competing in the Champions League during the same period, and he’s now rightly regarded as one of the finest and most experienced managers in the world.
A first Champions League trophy as a manager (he won it during his playing career with Juve in 1996) is something he’ll personally be extremely keen to pursue and that perhaps goes a little way to explaining some of the transfer business undertaken by the club this summer.
Whether or not the likes of Álvaro Morata, Antonio Rudiger and Tiemoué Bakayoko will take to Premier League football immediately is an unknown, but they’ve been bought to help strengthen future European claims and it would be fascinating to know deep down whether the Blues' hierarchy would accept a Premier League trade-off for an immediate return to the glory days in the Champions League.
It’s a moot point but what we do know about this current Chelsea squad, though shorn of leader John Terry, is that they still possess the required experience, tactical nous and individual quality to go a long way to repeating last year’s success.
We also know they possess the remarkable ability to sulk in large numbers and that sour season under Jose Mourinho is not easily forgotten when it comes to weighing up how key members of the team may react to the departure of Nemanja Matic and Diego Costa, should the latter's impending departure be confirmed.
If there’s even just a hint of Chelsea wobbling with the extra workload then Manchester City look well set to capitalise under Pep Guardiola, for whom winning a significant trophy now becomes something close to a minimum requirement.
Guardiola has probably never had to deal with such a disjointed bunch as that which greeted him at the Etihad last summer, but he swiftly got to work and made a few decisions that clearly didn’t go down well with everyone – and may have cost him any real chance of success in his first year.
A great start points-wise papered over the cracks and it’s likely Guardiola learnt most about his players throughout the six-game winless run that began at Celtic Park at the end of September, than at any other stage.
By the time they’d seemingly fully bought into his philosophy it was too late and it was inconsistency throughout the central third of the season that saw third-placed City ultimately trail Chelsea by 15 points.
Recent champions
16/17 – Chelsea
15/16 – Leicester
14/15 – Chelsea
13/14 – Man City
12/13 – Man Utd
11/12 – Man City
10/11 – Man Utd
09/10 – Chelsea
08/09 – Man Utd
07/08 – Man Utd
So how can they be good value to overhaul such a deficit given they are almost half the price of the reigning champions?
Well, there were glimpses into City’s future as they signed off with an eight-match unbeaten run in the league, during which they played the most sparkling brand of football.
That highly-encouraging form and the prospect of Sergio Aguero, Gabriel Jesus, Leroy Sane and Kevin De Bruyne combining for an entire season admittedly has bookmakers running for cover. But it’s worth noting the 2012 and 2014 winners were around 6/4 when last season’s outright book first opened, so with another summer passing and the new manager’s feet firmly under the table, City don’t appear a bad price at close to 2/1.
Click here for Sky Bet's Premier League title odds
A propensity to shoot themselves in the foot defensively has to be acknowledged, and it’s hoped the influx of Kyle Walker, Danilo and Benjamin Mendy will bring a bit more intensity on that score. With John Stones still improving and Ederson providing the option of a fresh start in goal, it’s clear they're surrounding the fragile Vincent Kompany with younger legs and anything like an injury-free run for the inspirational club captain could put City in the box seat.
For me, either City are too big in the betting, or rivals United are far too short at 7/2. There’s a suspicion that it’s a bit of both and despite Mourinho’s eyecatching record of producing Chelsea, Porto, Inter and Real Madrid to win their respective titles in his second year at the helm, the necessity to bridge a 24-point gap looks beyond even him.
I'm going for City and Chelsea as the two top sides this season so the straight forecast at 11/1 makes appeal.
At United, signing Matic may help relieve Paul Pogba but effectively replacing Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Wayne Rooney with Romelu Lukaku places a huge amount of pressure on the incoming centre forward and he’s going to have to hit the ground running.
Even if Lukaku delivers 25-plus league goals, United will have to find something extra from midfield after seven sides scored more than them last season, including Bournemouth, and they’ve not done enough in the transfer market to address that problem.
Premier League stats
Average points won by champions (38-game seasons only): 85.8 (2.26 per game)
Fewest points won by champions: 75, Man Utd in 96/97 (1.97 per game)
Most points won by champions: 95, Chelsea in 04/05 (2.5 per game)
Fewest points won by team finishing 2nd: 68, Newcastle in 96/97 (1.79 per game)
Most points won by a team finishing 2nd: 89, Man Utd in 11/12 (2.34 per game)
Smallest margin of victory: Goal difference (of 8), Man City in 11/12
Biggest margin of victory: 18 points, Man Utd in 99/00
Liverpool and Arsenal aren’t quite on the same level (or rather choose not to be, in the Gunners’ case) when it comes to spending power and neither appear obvious candidates to improve past last year’s top three.
Europa League football has been a hindrance to English clubs recently with the regular Thursday-Sunday slots throwing up a completely different dynamic to the working week and an apparently-waning Arsenal make little appeal in spite of the odd 14/1 quote.
Arsenal may be able to take their European commitments lightly until the New Year, from which point they can reassess priorities, but the biggest threat to City and Chelsea, who are strongly fancied to fight out the finish, should be posed by Tottenham.
They've been the best side in the land for large periods of the past two seasons and it’s hard to envisage them not contending again as Mauricio Pochettino has sourced and nurtured an ultra-fit, youthful squad featuring two of England’s brightest talents for many years.
In Harry Kane Spurs have the prized asset in the division and would surely have gone close to winning had the world’s best Old Fashioned Number 9 not missed a handful of games in the autumn.
The reliance on Kane is pronounced but Tottenham saying goodbye to White Hart Lane (as we know it) looks the biggest stumbling block.
Click here for Sky Bet's Premier League RequestABets for 2017/18
It’s not like anyone truly believes they won’t win a home game all season. And in truth I’m not totally sold on the idea that every team arriving to play Spurs at Wembley will perform well beyond what would normally have been expected of them.
The issue is that, before a ball has even been kicked, it is being talked of as a potential issue and it could escalate quite quickly - just as West Ham's move did 12 months ago.
Arsene Wenger reflects on Arsenal’s time at the national stadium as "a nightmare" and "the wrong decision", and while that doesn't necessarily have to be the case for Spurs, they'd surely be closer to 4/1 than 10s without the upheaval.
That Chelsea are the first visitors on August 20 allows them a great chance to silence the naysayers but it’s hardly the fixture Pochettino would have hand-picked given a choice and such a significant early test is off-putting, for all they do have the potential to shorten if things go their way in the first fortnight.
It simply looks a case of unfortunate timing for an otherwise rock-solid side and sadly, Tottenham’s chance of Premier League glory with their current crop may now have come and gone.
Posted at 0700 BST on 07/08/17.
Coming next: Premier League team-by-team guide, Monday 1200 BST
Last five seasons
16/17
1 Chelsea 93pts
2 Spurs 86
3 Man City 78
15/16
1 Leicester 81pts
2 Arsenal 71
3 Spurs 70
14/15
1 Chelsea 87pts
2 Man City 79
3 Arsenal 75
13/14
1 Man City 86pts
2 Liverpool 84
3 Chelsea 82
12/13
1 Man Utd 89pts
2 Man City 78
3 Chelsea 75