Football betting tips: Premier League Specials
5pts Luton 31 or less total season points at 4/5 (bet365)
4pts Luton to score the least goals at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts e.w. Darwin Núñez to have the most shots on target at 14/1 (Betway - 1/4 odds 1,2,3)
1pt André Onana to win the Golden Glove award at 7/1 (SkyBet, Betway)
0.5pts e.w. Kai Havertz to record the most assists at 90/1 (PaddyPower, Betfair - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
Lowly Luton
Inserted as heavy favourites to be relegated from the Premier League almost immediately after their promotion from the Championship, Luton’s transfer window activity looks like one of a team that, barring a miraculous season, have accepted their probable fate and are setting themselves up for years of sustainability.
It’s not the worst play with football financials in the current state that they are, but it could lead to a very tough campaign for the Hatters.
Indeed, LUTON to gain 31 OR LESS TOTAL SEASON POINTS is the first ‘specials’ selection.
No team that played in the Premier League last season should finish below Luton, the disparity between the quality of the teams is just too wide, and both Burnley and Sheffield United have already shown they are better in a large sample size.
It's really difficult to envisage where Luton will pick up points, so the 4/5 to finish on 31 or fewer is a good bet in my book.
A defensive unit that performed well last season will come under much more stress in the top tier, and creating chances will be a huge issue for Luton, which brings me to my next bet in the specials markets – LUTON TO SCORE THE LEAST GOALS in the Premier League.
Seven teams scored more goals than the Hatters in the Championship last season, netting 57 across their 46 league games. The underlying numbers were fairly underwhelming, too, averaging 1.37 expected goals (xG) per game in a campaign that ended in play-off promotion.
With little in the way of giant strides made in the summer, it’s hard to see how they can test teams at the highest level. Consequently, the 9/4 available at Sky Bet for Luton to score the fewest goals should be backed.
Darwin evolution
Harry Kane pipped Erling Haaland to most shots on target in 2022/23, registering 54 and 53 shots respectively in outstanding seasons for both.
They’re certainly not unattainable benchmarks, however. In my opinion, it’s a far better angle to take them on here than in the top goalscorer market, and it is DARWIN NÚÑEZ that stands out as an excellent bet.
Backing Liverpool’s agent of chaos to be top goalscorer looks a risky call after his poor display of finishing last term, but the 14/1 available in the TOP SHOTS ON TARGET market with Betway is certainly each-way value.
Núñez ranked seventh in the Premier League with 35 shots on target last season, despite playing just 1,849 minutes – in essence, less than half a season. Consequently, the Uruguayan ranked highest for shots on target per 90 minutes (1.86), beating out both Haaland (1.72) and Kane (1.43) in that metric.
That makes Núñez’s price of serious interest in a fun bet to follow throughout the season.
Who will win the Golden Glove award?
The next selection comes in the Golden Glove market, an award given to the Premier League goalkeeper with the most clean sheets in a season. While Ederson is a correct and obvious favourite, new Manchester United signing ANDRÉ ONANA is the value play at 7/1 with Sky Bet and Betway.
Onana’s predecessor, David de Gea, won the award last term by three clean sheets, largely a by-product of the team’s improvement than a reflection of his own dwindling abilities.
It’s fair to suggest United will be far better at building from the back with Onana at the base of play, too. They should see even more comfortable possession of the ball as a result, further alleviating pressure on a backline that performed well after an extremely shaky start to the 2022/23 campaign.
The positives of a footballing goalkeeper far outweigh the negatives, at least in Onana’s case, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Erik ten Hag’s side controlling games next season.
With that in mind, the price of Onana to keep the most clean sheets and win the Golden Glove award should be shorter. After all, he's not a bad shot-stopper, either.
Back Havertz assists at high price
Finally, KAI HAVERTZ is a speculative punt to record the MOST ASSISTS in the Premier League this season, on offer at 90/1 with four places each-way.
I'm of the belief that Havertz was consistently misused at Chelsea and Mikel Arteta will be better suited to bringing out the best in the German international.
Set to play in a deeper role for the Gunners, Havertz can create chances as a new addition to one of the best attacking teams in the league last season. His languid style will never satisfy a viewer that doesn't know what they're watching, but his quality is clear.
The 90/1 odds are a bit big in a usually competitive market.
Premier League 2023/24 specials best bets
- 5pts Luton 31 or less total season points at 4/5 (bet365)
- 4pts Luton to score the least goals at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
- 2pts e.w. Darwin Núñez to have the most shots on target at 14/1 (Betway 1/4 1,2,3)
- 1pt André Onana to win the Golden Glove award at 7/1 (SkyBet, Betway)
- 0.5pts e.w. Kai Havertz to record the most assists at 90/1 (PaddyPower, Betfair 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Odds correct at 1600 (06/08/23)
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