Football betting tips: Premier League
5pts Manchester City to win the league at 4/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Brentford to finish in the top half at 19/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Kevin De Bruyne to finish as top assister at 40/1 (William Hill)
0.5pts Ollie Watkins to win PFA Player of the Year at 80/1 (Sky Bet)
City ripe for the title
MANCHESTER CITY peaked at even money to win a record breaking fourth consecutive Premier League title a few weeks ago and despite shortening a little since, they are still worth a tout TO WIN THE LEAGUE this term.
The price is a little puzzling for a number of reasons.
According to Opta, City have a 57.4% chance of reigning supreme, Liverpool have a 36.6% chance and Arsenal, currently level on points with City, are the third most likely with just a 3.4% chance.
Pep Guardiola’s side were 4/6 before a ball was kicked. They have played the first half of the campaign without arguably their best player Kevin De Bruyne (more on him later) but if they win their game in hand, they go within two points of league leaders Liverpool.
It is far easier to pick chinks in Pep’s rivals sides.
The Reds have created the most ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30) in the division (52) and conceded the fewest goals. But with talisman Mohamed Salah jetting off to AFCON for a month, Jurgen Klopp’s frontline lacks the potency it needs to make the system thrive.
Without the firepower the 14 goal Egyptian brings, it is easy to envisage Liverpool tailing off in his absence.
While Liverpool will have to make do without their goalscorer, Arsenal seemingly don’t have one, and much has been made of the Gunners distinct lack of a number nine.
Mikel Arteta appeared to opt for defensive solidity over goal scoring, but with his side top of Christmas and possessing the joint most clean sheets in the division (7), a lack of firepower didn’t seem to matter.
A barren spell in terms of points and goals has brought the issue back into the limelight and with the Spanish supremo confirming Arsenal won’t be bringing a frontman to North London in January, it looks set to continue.
The time is NOW to get a Manchester City title on side.
Bees to start buzzing
In an interview with Sky Sports, Ivan Toney honorably said he was going to stick with Brentford until the end of the season.
With 18-months left on his contract, could this be a ploy to slash his price for potential suitors? I don't know. It’s just conjecture of course but if he is true to his word, the frontman could hoist the Bees out of a sticky spot.
A haul of three points from a possible 24 is why Thomas Frank’s side are teetering towards the dotted line. Four points stands between them and Luton, the only side Brentford have beaten since November.
A timely return of a player who scored 20 goals last term may prove just the tonic.
🎥 Ivan Toney’s Hat-Trick today vs Southampton’s u23s. 🐝 pic.twitter.com/RS9lzY9Ehc
— Eduardo Hagn (@EduardoHagn) January 6, 2024
Brentford are currently nine points off the top half but with Toney back available for their next Premier League game against Nottingham Forest and three of their next six matches against sides 10th or below, the complexion of their season could change drastically before spring.
At 19/1, BRENTFORD's price TO FINISH IN THE TOP HALF appeals.
Regardless of Toney’s return, Brentford are in a false position. They rank ninth for xG generated (33.85) and have shipped the fourth fewest xGA (25.61), so their fortunes should improve.
You’re speaking to Kevin, how may I assist you?
It took KEVIN DE BRUYNE 17 minutes to grab an ASSIST in his eagerly anticipated return from injury at the weekend. It was the 57th minute when Pep Guardiola introduced him in the FA Cup third round against Huddersfield and in the 74th minute the Belgian midfielder clipped in a cross for compatriot Jeremy Doku to sweep home.
WHAT AN ASSIST FROM KEVIN DE BRUYNE IN HIS FIRST GAME BACK FROM INJURY TO JEREMY DOKU! 🔥
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) January 7, 2024
League might be in trouble 😳 pic.twitter.com/l6vnLu6bNu
He has no Premier League assists to his name yet, but by my calculations, if he carries on assisting at this rate (1 assist per 15 minutes) and plays every remaining minute of the Premier League campaign, De Bruyne would set up 114 goals. Allowing him to easily make up for the lost time and finish with the TOP ASSISTS.
Okay, 114 assists may be a bit unrealistic but given his pedigree, KDB could certainly hit double figures.
Mohamed Salah and Ollie Watkins top the charts at the minute, both on eight but with the former at the African Cup of Nations De Bruyne has the chance to gain some ground.
The Belgian has scooped up the accolade in four of the last seven seasons, racking up a combined total of 60 assists in those winning terms.
His best tallies have been in sides alongside out-and-out strikers so returning alongside Erling Haaland, De Bruyne could rediscover the form that saw him average 3.1 key passes per game and 0.60 assists per 90 last campaign and give us a run for our money.
Watkins the player of the year?
It may not seem such a hot take but at 80/1 with Sky Bet, OLLIE WATKINS TO WIN PFA PLAYER OF THE YEAR is certainly a longshot.
As short as 40/1 with other firms, the difference in implied probability may only be 1.2% but the difference in return on investment is double.
Anyone with a passing interest in the Premier League will know Watkins has not flown under the radar this season.
How could he? Nine goals and eight assists makes him one of the division's most dangerous players, only Mohamed Salah (24) and Erling Haaland (18) have had a hand in more.
Granted, Watkins has his work cut out if he is going to trump either of those players final totals but if he can maintain the 0.87 goals and assists per 90 average he posted in the first half of the season, he will be towards the top end of the charts come May.
Villa’s frontman is on course to join an elite list of Premier League players to rack up both 15 goals and 15 assists in one season. Eden Hazard (18/19), Thierry Henry (02/03), Matt Le Tissier (94/95) and Eric Cantona (92/93) are the others.
This batch of Aston Villa players are in uncharted waters. A title challenge isn’t completely foreign to Unai Emery though and if he can keep them in the running his talisman would surely shorten in the PFA Player of the Year market.
Odds correct at 1900 GMT (09/01/24)
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