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Premier League betting tips: Previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs

By Paul Higham

Football

Sat October 20, 2018 · 6y ago

Mark your card for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League with the best bets, Super 6 predictions and top stats for each game.

Recommended bets

2pts Bournemouth to beat Southampton at 21/20

1pt Fulham to beat Cardiff at 2/1

1pt Wolves win to nil at 15/8

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Bournemouth v Southampton

Junior Stanislas celebrates his goal for Bournemouth

Bournemouth backed for victory against Southampton

It’s a relatively simple equation for this south coast derby as Bournemouth are unbeaten at home this season with three wins out of four while Southampton have lost three of four on the road and the respective form of these two makes this a home banker.

The Cherries are usually good for a few goals as well this season as Eddie Howe’s boys have entertained while marching up to sixth in the table and, given Southampton have just one win all season and have conceded plenty, then getting odds-against for a home win looks too good to turn down.

If this was a home fixture for any other team in the top ten of the Premier League than ‘little’ Bournemouth then you would not get anywhere near this price.

Super 6 prediction: Bournemouth 3-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Best bet: Bournemouth to win at 21/20

Opta stats

In all competitions, Southampton have lost just two of their last 14 games against Bournemouth (W8 D4 L2), winning their most recent meeting in the Premier League in April.
Bournemouth have won 22 points from their last 30 available in the Premier League (W7 D1 L2).
Bournemouth have lost just one of their last eight home Premier League games (W5 D2) and are unbeaten in their last five at the Vitality Stadium (W4 D1).
Southampton have lost their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 0-8. They last lost four in a row without scoring in the top-flight back in December 1993.
Only Manchester City (174) and Chelsea (142) have had more shots than Southampton in the Premier League this season (116). However, Saints have scored just six goals giving them the second lowest conversion rate in the competition so far (5.2%, behind only Cardiff).

Cardiff v Fulham

Aleksandar Mitrovic scores for Fulham against Watford

Aleksandar Mitrovic can help Fulham find a win at Cardiff

Is it too early for a relegation six-pointer? We’re going with no as it’s already looking bleak for both of these promoted sides with just one win between them so far. Cardiff are having trouble scoring goals and Fulham just cannot stop letting them in.

Neil Warnock’s side have scored in just three of eight games so far while Fulham have by far the worst defensive record, letting in a troubling 21. Slavisa Jokanovic seems unwilling to alter Fulham’s free-flowing style but until they manage to shut up shop at the back then they will continue to struggle.

Despite Fulham being the better going forward, Cardiff will fancy getting a result given how brittle the visitors have been at the back, but in this instance Fulham can benefit from being the away team and will surely learn lessons from recent games – they have the quality to pinch this one.

Super 6 prediction: Cardiff 0-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Best bet: Fulham win at 2/1

Opta stats

Fulham are without a clean sheet in their last 21 matches against Cardiff in all competitions – however, they haven’t lost any of their previous seven games against the Bluebirds (W3 D4 L0).
Fulham are the only team that Cardiff have beaten more than once in the Premier League (two wins) – in the top-flight, they’ve won four of their six meetings with the Cottagers (P6 W4 D1 L1).
Cardiff are winless in their last 12 Premier League games (D3 L9), losing the last five in a row. They last lost six consecutive games in league competition back in November 1985.
Cardiff are winless in their last eight Premier League home games (D2 L6), shipping 22 goals in that run. The last side they beat in the competition at the Cardiff City Stadium were Fulham (3-1 in March 2014).
Fulham have conceded 21 goals in the Premier League this season, four more than any other side. The last team to concede more in their first eight games of the season were Southampton in 2012-13 (24).

Man City v Burnley

Sergio Aguero is expected to be in the goals for Man City against Burnley

City have not even been out of second gear at home this season so far, and they again look set for an easy day at the office in the type of fixture they have dominated over the last couple of seasons. Even an inspired Joe Hart will struggle to keep what should be waves of constant pressure from being converted into goals.

Coming after the international break may slow City down somewhat, but they could have a fit-again Kevin De Bruyne to come in for what should be another defence-versus-attack training game.

Burnley are not the tough nut to crack they were last year and although Hart has been excellent he's been far too busy for Sean Dyche's liking - even if he's in form anything other than sizeable defeat would be a surprise.

Super 6 prediction: Man City 3-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Best Bet: 10+ Man City corners at 7/4

Opta stats

This will be the 100th meeting between Man City and Burnley in all competitions – City have won 44 of the previous 99, with 25 draws and 30 wins for the Clarets since their first meeting in October 1897.
Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 33 Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday (W29 D4). If they avoid defeat here, they’ll set a new record for longest unbeaten run at that timeslot in the competition.
Burnley have beaten the reigning Premier League champions at least once in each of their four previous Premier League campaigns (Man Utd in 2009-10, Man City in 2014-15, Leicester in 2016-17 and Chelsea in 2017-18).
No side has a better win rate in Premier League games against reigning top-flight champions than Burnley do, with the Clarets having won four of their eight such games (Bournemouth and Manchester United also with 50% win rates).
Man City striker Sergio Aguero has scored six goals in six games against Burnley in all competitions, scoring in each of his three appearances against the Clarets at the Etihad (four goals).

Newcastle v Brighton

Rafa Benitez arrives at St James' Park ahead of Newcastle v Chelsea

Newcastle can ease the pressure on Rafa Benitez by beating Brighton

Talk about a must win! After a tough start and four straight defeats at home, the season really starts now for Newcastle as they welcome the worst away team in the league from last year and one that’s won just a point away from the south coast so far this season.

Chances for three home points do not come much better than this for Rafa Benitez’s side, and with the international break to plan he’s had chance to put down a blueprint for a win that could kick-start their season.

Chris Hughton’s side have looked good in spells and will be set out to frustrate the home team, and home crowd. Defeat here and the pressure ramps up another notch on troubled Tyneside but they should be capable of avoiding it.

Super 6 prediction: Newcastle 1-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Best bet: Newcastle to win at 5/4

Opta stats

Brighton are winless in their last 17 Premier League away games (D5 L12), scoring just seven goals in that run. It’s their longest run without a win on the road in league competition since September 1997 (18 games).
Newcastle have lost all four of their Premier League home games this season – only three teams in English top-flight history have ever lost their first five (Man Utd 1930-31, Portsmouth in 2009-10 and Bolton in 2011-12).
Brighton manager Chris Hughton is yet to win at St. James’ Park as an away manager against his former club in four attempts (P4 W0 D1 L3), with all matches coming in league competition.
Only Eden Hazard (7) has scored more Premier League goals this season than Brighton’s Glenn Murray (5). However, just one of Murray’s strikes has come away from home.
Rafael Benitez has lost 11 of his 28 home Premier League games as Newcastle manager – one more than he’d lost in 127 home games at Liverpool and Chelsea combined (W86 D31 L10).

West Ham v Tottenham

Harry Kane has seven in seven for Tottenham against West Ham

The ‘big tests’ seem to be coming every week for Spurs but this really is one coming off an international ‘break’ with so many players away in Nations League action. Harry Kane will be boosted by his England display and after insisting he does not need a rest he will be looking to add to his seven goals in seven games against the Hammers.

A derby at the London Stadium may not be the best game for West Ham given they look far stronger playing on the break, but that tactic will not be acceptable for their fans against fierce rivals Tottenham.

With no love lost between these two sides there should be plenty of everything in this one so expect goals, tackles and bookings flying about, but it’d be no surprise if it ended all square.

Super 6 prediction: West Ham 2-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Bet bet: Draw at 9/4

Opta stats

West Ham have won 14 Premier League games against Tottenham – against no side have they won more (also 14 against Southampton).
Spurs have won their last four London derbies in the Premier League – they last won five consecutive top-flight London derbies in January 1961.
Spurs have won eight of their last 11 Premier League away games (D1 L2), including four of their five on the road this season.
Spurs striker Harry Kane has scored seven goals in his last seven Premier League games against West Ham, scoring a brace at London Stadium in their 3-2 win last season.
No player has scored more Premier League away goals this season than Spurs’ Harry Kane (4).

Wolves v Watford

Wolves should be celebrating again against Watford

The first ever Premier League meeting between these sees two teams on opposing trajectories as Watford have been dropping like a stone since their scintillating start while Wolves are developing into the Premier League power many anticipated before the start of the season.

While it just looks like Watford are finding their level, Wolves seem well equipped to continue their form – they have notably conceded just once in the last seven games and it is that, rather than their attacking ability, that their season will be built on.

This looks the perfect game for them to continue their winning run but it should be tight as Watford will have been given a rocket from Javi Gracia after their 4-0 mauling at home in their last game.

Super 6 prediction: Wolves 2-0 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bet: Wolves win to nil at 15/8

Opta stats

This is the first ever Premier League meeting between Wolves and Watford – they have, however, met twice in the top-flight during the 1983-84 season, with the Hornets triumphing 5-0 at Molineux and drawing the other 0-0.
Wolves’ haul of 15 points from eight Premier League games is the best start by a promoted club in the competition since Hull in 2008-09 (17 points from 8 games).
In all competitions, Wolves have conceded just one goal in their last seven games, with that goal coming in a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford.
Watford are only the second team in Premier League history to win their opening four games of a campaign, then fail to win any of their subsequent four, after Sheffield Wednesday in 1996-97.
Each of Wolves’ last eight Premier League goals have been scored in the second half of games.