Premier League and EFL outright tips and predictions

Football betting tips: Premier League & EFL outrights

Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill

0.5pt e.w Tommy Conway top Championship goalscorer at 66/1 (William Hill, 1-2 at 1/3 odds)

0.5pt e.w Wilson Isidor top Championship goalscorer at 100/1 (Betway, 1-3 at 1/4 odds)

Advised elsewhere:

3pts Richard Kone top League One goalscorer at 9/2 (General)

Joe Townsend

2pts QPR to finish in the Championship play-offs at 66/1 (Sky Bet)

2pts Barnsley to be promoted from League One at 5/1 (General)

1pt Barnsley to finish in the League One top two at 25/1 (General)

2pts Barrow to be relegated from League Two at 50/1 (General)

Advised elsewhere:

2pts Chelsea to win the FA Cup at 7/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Atletico Madrid to win the Champions League at 40/1 (General, 1-2 at 1/2 odds)

• CLICK HERE to add all selections to your Sky Bet bet slip

The state of play

As we nudge beyond the halfway stage there are some interesting narratives developing.

Liverpool (now 1/4) are most likely to win the Premier League after Arne Slot's incredible impact since replacing Jurgen Klopp, but the real story of the season has been another team in red.

Nottingham Forest were 100/1 to gatecrash the top four before a ball was kicked and are now a comparatively poxy 4/1 thanks to a phenomenal opening 20 matches under the wily Nuno Espirito Santo.

The battle for European qualification has been made easier by Manchester United - on course for their worst ever Premier League finish - and Tottenham's thus far tragic campaigns, and Manchester City's implosion without Ballon d'Or winner Rodri.

That collapse that has seen the goals dry up for Erling Haaland, causing his golden boot monopoly to come under siege from a rampant Mohamed Salah.

In the Sky Bet EFL, none of antepost favourites Leeds, Birmingham and MK Dons have quite stamped their authority on their respective divisions, although the former two sit top and should pull clear eventually.

It will be trickier for Leeds, as in the Championship there are four teams in competition for the two automatic promotion spots and the entire top half are in with a chance of a play-off push; Birmingham face much less opposition in League One.

Best of all, in League Two only a handful of points separates the sides from second down to 13th.

How are we positioned?

Newcastle (top four) and Alexander Isak (each-way top scorer) are making a good run for it for Jake at 9/4 and 18/1 respectively, while the 6/4 advised by Jimmy on Southampton to be relegated is looking like a whopping price.

You're in a cushy position in the Championship's relegation market too if you took Jake's advice and backed Cardiff to be relegated at 9/2 or Jimmy's 9/1 about Hull in the same market; the shrewd appointment of Ruben Selles sets up a nervy end to the campaign, though. We're also on the now odds-on Leeds to win the title at an antepost 7/2.

Strap yourselves in for plenty of twists and turns - in the EFL in particular, there really is no such thing as a home straight.

And if you fancy it, between us we've managed to find a few new positions potentially worth taking.

Going for goalscorers

Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill

My antepost picks can be categorised as the good, the bad and the ugly. Luton and Rotherham to finish in the top six has aged like milk in the microwave with both sides closer to the relegation zone than the play-offs.

The top scorer punts are doing okay though, and that's where I'm looking again here.

Championship top goalscorer odds (Sky Bet, 1/3 for the first 2 places)

• Borja Sainz - 6/4 (15 goals)
• Josh Maja - 11/4 (12 goals)
• Joel Piroe - 7/1 (10 goals)
• Emmanuel Latte Lath - 8/1 (10 goals)
• Vakoun Issouf Bayo - 12/1 (9 goals)
• Thomas Cannon - 22/1 (9 goals)

In the Championship, Middlesbrough’s Emmanuel Latte Lath is hanging onto the coattails of Borja Sainz but with his agent touting him here, there and everywhere it would be a surprise to see the Boro striker end the season at the Riverside.

Although it looks ominous for our antepost position, it opens up some opportunities in this market, namely his team-mate TOMMY CONWAY at 66/1 with William Hill; if he finishes in the top two, each-way terms pay out at 22/1.

Conway is 50s generally, which is worth taking, but as short as 33s elsewhere.

• CLICK HERE to back Tommy Conway top goalscorer with Sky Bet

Conway (eight goals) has played the fewest minutes (1,021) of the players above him in the goalscoring charts and boasts one of the best goals per 90 averages (0.47) in the division.

Michael Carrick’s side create plenty of chances, scoring the second-most goals in the division this season (43). They netted 71 last term and 84 the season before when Chuba Akpom finished as Championship top scorer with 28 goals.

Sainz may lead the way with 15, three clear of any other player, but there are plenty of reasons to oppose the Norwich man.

He's overachieving his xG by 4.8, four of his goals have come from range, he has three braces, two of which were hat-tricks and most crucially, he hasn't scored in the league since the end of November.

Another standout price is WILSON ISIDOR at 100/1 with Betway.

They're offering 1/4 odds on three places which is a huge bonus. That said, I wouldn’t put anyone off the 66/1 available with bet365 (2 places, 1/3 odds).

• CLICK HERE to back Wilson Isidor Championship top goalscorer with Sky Bet

The Frenchman has generated a higher xG than Joel Piroe but more importantly is the starting number nine for the Black Cats and appears to be going from strength-to-strength, netting three times in his last four appearances.

As for Piroe, that's an angle Tom Carnduff got ahead of in October, backing him at a 16/1 we could now only dream of.

Well done Thomas.

Further down the EFL, we're covered in League One as antepost selection Sam Smith of Reading is in the mix at 28s.

The top goalscorer race has, though, been thrown wide open by Aston Villa’s decision to recall Louie Barry from Stockport. We took Wycombe's Richard Kone at 9/2 at the start of January and with the market tightening since, I don't think it's worth revisiting.

Who's hot and who's cold?

Joe Townsend

The Championship looks an intriguing market, with it seemingly four into two for automatic promotion. But with the position we already have on Leeds, I'm instead happy to focus on a team who remain just about under the radar in the second tier: QPR.

• CLICK HERE to back QPR to finish in the top six with Sky Bet

At 50/1 TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX, Marti Cifuentes' side are hugely overpriced.

QPR have lost just once in 14 games since early November (W6 D7 L1) transforming a season of relegation struggle into one of play-off potential.

Across those undefeated fixtures they've conceded just six goals, while at home the R's have won five straight matches.

These performances have been a triumph of stability for a club beset by the opposite over the past decade, with their Spanish coach handed a new long-term contract at the end of September despite a terrible start to the season that saw QPR win only one of their first 16 matches.

Remarkably, despite that barren run Rangers have collected the sixth-most points per game in the Championship over the past 12 months, with Cifuentes' overall record suggesting around the 73-point mark for a full season, usually enough to secure sixth place.

But more importantly, QPR are on the up.

Cifuentes proved his worth last term by saving the club from what looked like near certain relegation.

In a division notorious for sides surging up the table in the second half of the campaign, taking them at 50/1 to close eight points to managerless West Brom - and of course overhaul the teams in between - feels very possible.

Backing Barnsley

Further down the EFL, against my better judgment of avoiding putting money behind my own team, the 5/1 about BARNSLEY TO BE PROMOTED FROM LEAGUE ONE and 25/1 about them TO FINISH IN THE TOP TWO is advised.

• CLICK HERE to back Barnsley to promotion with Sky Bet
• CLICK HERE to back Barnsley to finish in the top two with Sky Bet

Despite their apparent inconsistency in week-to-week performances (when you're poring over every detail that is) the Tykes are in fact the most consistent team in League One when it comes to actual results: fourth in 2022/23, sixth last season, and fifth after 25 games of this one, all under different managers.

Far from this being an overreaction to four straight wins over the Christmas period, although it is the first time all season Barnsley have won more than two league games in a row, the uptick in form goes back much further.

Aside from an inexplicable showing at home to Leyton Orient on the weekend of Storm Darragh, where weather conditions undoubtedly played a part, Darrell Clarke's side have been producing consistent performances since early November.

Ironically, they were hugely fortunate to pick up so many points in the matches prior, and in the subsequent five games the opposite happened.

Clarke's experience has shone through however, with few changes made, and Barnsley coming out of that sticky period by winning five of six fixtures to give themselves hope of a promotion push.

Four of their next five come against sides currently in the bottom half, with the exception an away trip to a faltering Wycombe where victory would see them make serious ground on the current owner of second place, whom they currently trail by nine points.

As the Tykes have found their way, the Chairboys have lost theirs, winning just three of their last nine matches.

Wheels come off Barrow

In the EFL's basement division it's been a sorry campaign for BARROW, especially given it promised so much in its early stages.

Sitting 15th doesn't tell the half of it, with the Bluebirds on a massive downward spiral. They've won just twice in 17 League Two matches stretching back to September, with their season falling apart since losing 5-0 at Chelsea in the Carabao Cup.

Before that trip to Stamford Bridge they'd taken 16 points from their first seven games (were W5 D1 L1). After it, they've taken 12 from 17 (W2 D5 L9).

The bookies are blissfully unaware, with several willing to offer 50/1 about BARROW TO BE RELEGATED.

• CLICK HERE to back Barrow to be relegated with Sky Bet

While this term is enough of a sample size to cause serious concerns on its own, Barrow's collapse in form stretches back to April of last year.

Of the 19 teams to have been in League Two during the entirety of that period, only Newport (0.93) and Morecambe (0.72) are averaging fewer points per game than Barrow (1.0) - 30 from 30 matches - with it perhaps just as worrying that those two sides are show much more signs of life.

The gap to the relegation zone is only eight points and unless there is a serious turnaround by Stephen Clemence's side, they may well be playing non-league football next season.

Odds correct at 1430 BST (07/01/2025)
Note: QPR to finish in the Championship play-offs initially quoted as "50/1 top six finish (General)" in error (amended 0800 8/1/25)

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