Portugal vs Slovenia betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
2pts Both teams to score at 11/8 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 5/1
- Both teams to score
- Benjamin Sesko 1+ shot on target
- Cristiano Ronaldo 2+ shots on target
Does Roberto Martinez know how to get the best out of this talented Portugal squad? For all their depth and attacking potency, they haven’t quite clicked yet.
The writing was on the wall during the warm-up games. Portugal played three times, once more than most other nations, and Martinez tinkered with his formation and personnel in each, begging the question: does he know his best team or formation?
It did not look to be the case for their opening game against Czechia where Martinez started five defenders, three full-backs with Joao Cancelo in a hybrid 10 role and unsurprisingly it was unbalanced and chaotic.
Portugal won that match at the death, then became one of the first teams to qualify after following it up with a 3-0 win over Turkey, though their second win is heavily caveated as their opponents rested key players for that match.
And the less said about the third game the better, as a raft of changes contributed to an embarrassing 2-0 defeat by Georgia.
Martinez was hired for his attacking outlook, a tonic to the previous regime. He's re-kindled Cristiano Ronaldo and had a 100% record in qualification.
He has said his side will not peak until the knockout stages so maybe I'm over reacting. It just feels as thought his decisions have created more questions than they have answered.
What are the best bets?
The uncertainty, combined with Portugal’s 4/11 price, has created some scope for value, not least the 11/8 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.
Portugal have conceded three goals in as many group games and despite a clean sheet against Turkey, they shipped an xGA of 0.72.
Netting twice, Slovenia are underperforming their xG of 2.60. Of the four ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30), they have missed three which shows they are creating chances; Portugal should give them some too.
Turkey and Georgia created four ‘big chances’ against Portugal between them, failing to capitalise on any.
Team news
Cristiano Ronaldo and goalkeeper Diogo Costa are the only Portugal players to start every game so far.
Martinez has flicked between a back three and back four in the group stages but could opt for the latter on Monday. This should see Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes and Rafael Leao (back from a ban) operating behind Ronaldo.
Joao Paulinha will be hoping to get the nod alongside Vitinha in midfield and Pepe should be partnered by Ruben Dias in defence.
Barring any fresh injury concerns, Matjaz Kek’s only change for Slovenia from the XI that held England to a 0-0 draw on Thursday will be at full-back.
Erik Janza picked up his second yellow card of the tournament meaning he is suspended.
Predicted line-ups
Portugal: Costa: Cancelo, Dias, Pepe, Mendes; Vitinha, Palinha; Silva, Fernandes, Leao; Ronaldo.
Slovenia: Oblak; Karnicnik, Drkusic, Bijol, Balkovec; Stojanovic, Cerin, Elsnik, Mlakar; Sporar, Sesko.
Odds correct at 1550 BST (28/06/24)
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