Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Bukayo Saka to score or assist at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Since the winter break, Arsenal have hit top gear winning all of their five games.
What is more they have scored 21 goals and kept three clean sheets, putting five past Burnley and Crystal Palace and hitting West Ham for six.
For context, the Gunners are five points worse off at this stage in the Premier League season than they were last campaign but they have scored two more goals and conceded one fewer.
Mikel Arteta deserves credit for juggling the Champions League with a title charge in his maiden managerial season in the competition.
The Spaniard’s naivety may yet work in his side's favour as Arsenal have been eliminated at this stage of the Champions League more times than any other side.
What are the best bets?
BUKAYO SAKA is the Champions League creator in chief this season; no player in Europe's premier competition has had a hand in more goals than Arsenal’s young gun with three goals and four assists.
He only failed to SCORE OR ASSIST in Arsenal’s trip to Seville, setting up or scoring a goal every 48 minutes on average, which is why his price to have a hand in a goal appeals in Portugal.
This bet has clicked in each of Saka’s appearances since the winter break, in which time he has six goals taking his tally in all competitions to 27 goals and assists.
BuildABet @ 22/1
- Bukayo Saka to score or assist
- Mehdi Taremi 3+ Tackles
- Pepe 1+ shots
Mehdi Taremi tops Porto's tackling charts in Europe, averaging 2.7 per game and completing at least three in each of his side's games at the Estádio do Dragão.
Veteran defender Pepe is averaging 0.7 shots per game this term, having at least one attempt in each of his last three appearances.
Team news
Porto’s left back Zaidu Sanusi was stretchered off in the first half of his side's win over Estrela at the weekend.
Jorge Sanchez should slot into the backline in his absence alongside 40-year-old centre-back Pepe. The former Real Madrid man has started five of Porto’s Champions League games, netting twice.
Gabriel Jesus, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Takehiro Tomiyasu were unavailable for the trip to Turf Moor at the weekend and remain doubts for Wednesday.
It could mean Mikel Arteta starts Jakub Kiwior at left-back and Leandro Trossard in the middle of a front three.
Jorginho played 10 minutes on Saturday but has been grappling with an ankle injury. It looks unlikely the Italian will dislodge the trio of Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz in midfield.
Predicated line-ups
Porto: Costa; Mario, Pepe, Otavio, Sanchez; Pepe, Varela, Gonzalez, Galeno; Taremi, Evanilson.
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwior; Odegaard, Rice, Havertz; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli.
Match facts
- FC Porto have been eliminated from seven of their eight UEFA Champions League knockout ties against English opposition, with the exception being a round of 16 victory over Manchester United en route to winning the trophy in 2003-04.
- Arsenal have won all three of their home UEFA Champions League games against FC Porto by an aggregate score of 11-0, but are winless in all three away games (D1 L2).
- The last time Arsenal got past the round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League, they did so by beating FC Porto 6-2 on aggregate in the 2009-10 campaign. Nicklas Bendtner scored a hat-trick at the Emirates for the Gunners in that tie.
- Each of the last five teams to eliminate FC Porto from the UEFA Champions League in the knockout rounds of the competition has gone on to reach the final that year – Juventus in 2016-17 (last 16), Liverpool in 2017-18 (last 16) and 2018-19 (quarter-final), Chelsea in 2020-21 (quarter-final) and Inter last season (last 16).
- Since the round of 16 was introduced in the UEFA Champions League in 2003-04, Arsenal have gone out at this stage more than any other side (9), including in each of their last seven appearances in the competition between 2010-11 and 2016-17. With eight last 16 eliminations, FC Porto are joint-second in this regard.
- FC Porto have scored seven goals in their last two UEFA Champions League home games, as many as they had in their previous nine home matches in the competition combined.
- Arsenal have scored more first half goals than any other side in the UEFA Champions League this season, with 12 of their 16 strikes coming before half-time. The Gunners have scored in the opening 45 minutes in each of their last 13 Champions League games, the longest such run in European Cup history.
- In this year’s UEFA Champions League group stage, only Manchester City (91%) and Real Madrid (89%) had a higher pass completion rate under pressure than Arsenal (86%).
- In a run stretching back to November 2018 with Man City, Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus has been involved in 20 goals in his last 18 UEFA Champions League starts (15 goals, 5 assists). He’s been involved in six goals in four starts for the Gunners so far this term (4 goals, 2 assists).
- No player has been involved in more UEFA Champions League goals this season than Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (3 goals, 4 assists), with the young Englishman averaging a goal involvement every 48 minutes in the competition so far.
Odds correct at 1140 GMT (20/02/23)
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