Porto take on Chelsea in the first-leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie, and Jake Pearson thinks it could be a low-scoring affair.
Football betting tips: Porto v Chelsea
- 1pt Under 1.5 Goals at 2/1 (General)
The first thing to say about this fixture is that, had Porto been able to play their home leg in Portugal, their current price of 4/1 would look far too big. After all, this is a Champions League quarter-final. However, given this match is being played in Sevilla, Porto struggle to represent value even at that big a price.
Porto are currently second in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, some nine points behind runaway leaders Sporting, so there really is a lot riding on this match for the 2004 champions, and the Portuguese side might just fancy their chances against Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea.
For all the talk that Chelsea will have been delighted with drawing Porto in the quarter-final stage, there is an argument to be had that drawing Chelsea was also potentially the best possible outcome for Sergio Conceicao’s men, avoiding the likes of Manchester City, Bayern Munich and PSG.
And it is not like the Portuguese side do not have Champions League pedigree, winning the competition in 2004, as well as dumping out Juventus in their round of 16 tie last month.
Chelsea are used to having plenty of ball, and on a lot of occasions in the Premier League, allowed to enjoy uncontested possession, but that will not be the case against this ferocious, high-pressing Porto side.
This will be a big test for Thomas Tuchel and his Chelsea side after the weekend’s shock result against West Brom.
The 5-2 defeat against the Baggies ended a 14-game unbeaten streak since the German manager took charge at Stamford Bridge, and despite the fact that Chelsea did play much of the game with a man less after Thiago Silva’s red card, the Blues still looked off the pace, second to every ball and very sloppy in possession.
Defenders to come out on top
The positive for Chelsea is that they have a good platform to start building upon again in terms of their defence, as, prior to that game against Sam Allardyce’s side, Chelsea had conceded just two goals since Tuchel’s arrival, and one of those was an own goal.
The way Chelsea react to that defeat is crucial, and a strong defensive performance will surely be the order of the day for the Blues, particularly with Thiago Silva available for selection.
Chelsea have only conceded two goals in this year’s Champions League, and a sixth clean sheet in the competition would do no harm to their chances of progressing to the semi-finals.
Porto, likewise, have defended well in this year’s competition, conceding just three goals in the group stage (all against Manchester City).
They did concede four goals over two legs against Juventus, but they did play the majority of the second half of the second leg with ten men, and they still showed remarkable resilience, with Pepe in particular looking formidable.
That these two sides are very strong defensively, as well as the fact that Timo Werner is still desperately trying to hit that proverbial barn door, means this match really could be a low-scoring affair.
Under 2.5 looks a viable option, but given the biggest price available is 4/6, it could be worth chancing an even more cautious affair.
UNDER 1.5 GOALS is priced up at 2/1 with a few firms, and given the edginess with which this game could be played, that may just end up being a profitable selection.
Porto v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 1.5 Goals at 2/1 (General)
Score prediction: Porto 0-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1630 BST (06/04/21)
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