Free betting tips: Premier League Super Sunday - Newcastle v Wolves

By Tom Carnduff

Football

Sun December 09, 2018 · 6y ago

There's just the one game on Sunday as Newcastle host Wolves. Tom Carnduff has 5/1 and 22/1 best bets.

Recommended bets

1pt Raul Jimenez and Ruben Neves 2+ shots on target each at 22/1

1pt Joao Moutinho to be shown a card at 5/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Newcastle v Wolves (St. James' Park, 1600 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event)

Two sides sitting in mid-table meet in the only game on 'Super Sunday' as Newcastle welcome Wolves to St. James' Park.

The visitors ended a six-game run without victory when they came from behind to beat high-flying Chelsea in midweek, while Newcastle bounced back from defeat against West Ham with a point away at Everton.

The defeat to the Hammers came after home victories against Bournemouth and Watford, two sides who had done well on the road up to that point.

Mike Dean's appointment as referee could signal cards here, especially given how Wolves sit in the top-eight for yellow cards received in the Premier League.

The two games involving Wanderers officiated by Dean has brought six yellows and a red, while his appearance in the North London derby last weekend saw a total of 95 booking points.

It shouldn't be near that again this Sunday, but a case can be made for individual players adding to their card tallies for the season.

Wolves are clearly a team with talent throughout but they have struggled against those sides outside of the top-six. They have picked up points against Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea.

However, defeats to the likes of Cardiff, Brighton and Huddersfield highlight how Newcastle can carry some confidence of securing a positive result in front of their own supporters.

Betting guide

Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Wolves have demonstrated that they can pick up wins in the Premier League but I'm unsure if they can secure victory here. They've shown that they can struggle against sides in the bottom-half and have lost to relegation-fancied Cardiff in their last away trip. Newcastle's woes at home are evident with the fact they have six losses from eight. A draw seems a likely outcome.

Best bet: Raul Jimenez and Ruben Neves 2+ shots on target each at 22/1

Let's talk about stats. Jimenez and Neves lead the way for shots taken in this Wolves side and had at least three each in that loss against Cardiff. They only managed one on target each, but the 22/1 on offer is great value for what is asked of them. Their attacking intent is clear by the fact that they are regularly seeing multiple shots in games and they also posted 2+ shots on targets each in the recent home loss to Tottenham. Wolves may have beaten Chelsea without Neves due to suspension, but you'd expect him to come back into the starting XI on Tyneside.

Card bet: Joao Moutinho to be shown a card at 5/1

The midfielder leads the way for fouls committed by any Wolves player with 26 in total, five clear of second-placed Neves. Moutinho has two yellows on his tally and will be heavily involved in the battle in the middle of the park. At a best price of 5/1, and considering Dean's appointment, the value is there on backing him getting his second booking in the space of five days.

RequestABet: Raul Jimenez, Ruben Neves, Matt Richie 1+ shots on target each, 9+ corners, 40+ booking points at 18/1

Opta facts

Newcastle have never lost against Wolves in the Premier League (W2 D4 L0), though this is their first meeting since February 2012.
Wolves won on their last league visit to St. James’ Park against Newcastle, a 2-0 win in the Championship in September 2016. They haven’t won consecutive away league games there since October 1954.
All six meetings between Newcastle and Wolves in the Premier League have seen both teams score – it’s the most played fixture in the competition not to see a clean sheet.
Newcastle have lost six of their eight Premier League home games this season – only once have they lost as many at this stage of a top-flight season before (6 in 1953-54).
Wolves haven’t scored more than once in any of their seven away league games this season (W2 D2 L3), netting five goals in total.
Nine of Wolves’ Premier League 19 points this season (47%) have come in six games against last season’s top seven sides. In their nine games against other clubs, they have won just 10 points (1.11 per game).
Newcastle have conceded more goals from set piece situations than any other team in the Premier League this season (10).
Newcastle striker Salomon Rondon scored his team’s only goal in their 1-1 draw at Everton last time out, however the Venezuelan hasn’t scored in consecutive Premier League games since September 2016 for West Brom.
Wolverhampton Wanderers’ striker Raul Jimenez has been directly involved in eight of his team’s 15 goals in the Premier League this season (four goals, four assists).
Newcastle manager Rafael Benitez has not lost any of his 22 home Premier League matches against a newly promoted club, winning his first 10 in the competition before drawing six and winning six of his last 12 such games.

Odds correct at 1630 GMT (07/12/18)