Free betting tips and match preview: Premier League - Everton v Arsenal

By Tom Carnduff

Football

Sun April 07, 2019 · 6y ago

Sunday's only game in the Premier League comes at Goodison Park where Tom Carnduff expects the points to be shared between Everton and Arsenal.

Recommended bets

2pts Match to be a draw at 11/4

For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Everton v Arsenal (Goodison Park, 1405 BST, Sky Sports Main Event)

Two teams who come into this one on the back of victories, Everton welcome Arsenal to Goodison Park with the aim of moving closer to seventh.

The Toffees have endured a mixed season that has seen more losses than victories, despite money being spent to assemble what should have been a competitive squad.

Their home form has arguably been one of the most disappointing aspects of this side. All top teams pride themselves on a strong showing in front of their own supporters yet they've only won seven of their 16 games at Goodison Park.

To their credit, they did beat Chelsea and draw with Liverpool in their last two home games and I'm confident that they can pick up a point against an Arsenal side with differing fortunes on the road.

It's surprising to see Arsenal at a best price of 7/5 with Betfair for this one, their away form doesn't justify a price as short as that, with defeats to Manchester City, West Ham and Liverpool present in their last five away, while there was also a 1-1 draw at Tottenham.

It's worth sitting on the fence here and taking the draw at 11/4. There is a lack of consistency present for both at the moment and the Gunners' inability to secure away results compared to their top-six rivals is holding them back from hitting their full potential.

Richarlison, who Friday's Paper Talk has linked with a surprise move to Liverpool, has dropped back into the attacking midfield positions in recent weeks lining up alongside Gylfi Sigurdsson and Bernard. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has taken his preferred striker role.

Sigurdsson may be where the value is in terms of stats betting in this one. The Icelandic international is a danger at set-pieces and leads the way in shots taken by Everton players this season.

Betting guide

Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

The best way to go here is the draw with both teams finding the net. Four of Everton's last five have seen under 2.5 goals, while the same can be said in two of Arsenal's last four away in the league.

Best bet: Draw at 11/4

As stated in the reasons above, but the best bet is backing the draw at a best price of 11/4. We're getting near value of 3s on the points being separated largely in part down to Arsenal's shorter than expected price. The Asian Handicap odds are also offering 0.25 and that figure hasn't changed, showing that the money is on it being a close contest on Merseyside.

Best bet: Gylfi Sigurdsson 2+ shots on target at 9/4

Gylfi Sigurdsson is a player I've always liked. That's probably down to how good he was at free-kicks on the FIFA games, much to my uni housemates' disappoint, but those games can be realistic. Anyway, he is a key man for Everton and more than played his part in their attacks. He can provide goals or assists from set-piece situations and has an eye for goal from distance. The stats show how he has tried his luck more than any other Everton player this season, and Sky Bet's price of 9/4 for two or more shots on target looks good value.

Opta facts

Everton have lost seven of their last eight Premier League meetings with Arsenal (W1), including the last four in a row. They last lost five consecutively against the Gunners between May 1998 and April 2000.
Arsenal have beaten Everton 97 times in league matches – more than any side has beaten another in English Football League history.
Arsenal have scored more Premier League goals against Everton (107) than any side has against another in the competition’s history.
Everton’s victory against Chelsea in their last home game ended a run of 25 Premier League games without a victory against ‘big six’ sides. They last won consecutive such matches in April 2014, beating Arsenal and Manchester United.
Arsenal are the only Premier League side without an away clean sheet so far this season. The Gunners have won just one of their last eight league games on the road (D3 L4).
Everton have won their last two Premier League games by a 2-0 scoreline. They last won three in a row without conceding back in January 2017 under Ronald Koeman.
Arsenal have kept three clean sheets in their last five Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 19 in the competition (2). They’re looking to secure three consecutive league shutouts for the first time since November 2017.
Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey has been directly involved in nine goals in his last five Premier League games against Everton (6 goals, 3 assists). He’s got more goals (6) and assists (4) against Everton than he has vs any other side in the Premier League.
Arsenal strikers Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette have each scored in both of their previous Premier League appearances against Everton.
Gylfi Sigurdsson has been involved in more Premier League goals for Everton than any other player since the start of last season (16 goals, 7 assists).

Odds correct at 1400 BST (05/04/19)