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Premier League betting tips: Previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Boxing Day's 3pm kick-offs
Mark your card for Boxing Day's 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League with the best bets provided by Tom Carnduff and George Pitts, plus Super 6 predictions and top stats for each game.
Recommended bets
1pt Heung-min Son to score anytime in Tottenham v Bournemouth at 6/4
1pt Paul Pogba to score and Manchester United to win against Huddersfield at 2/1
1pt Gylfi Sigurdsson to score anytime in Burnley v Everton at 3/1
1pt Patrick van Aanholt to score anytime in Crystal Palace v Cardiff at 7/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
3pm fixtures
Burnley v Everton
(Tom Carnduff)
The Clarets spent Christmas day in the relegation zone, and they’re likely to stay there when Everton visit Turf Moor.
Marco Silva’s men may have been hammered at home by Tottenham last time out, but they have had a tough run of fixtures and this game represents a great opportunity to return to winning ways.
Burnley can take confidence in the fact that Everton are winless in their last four away, that said, those games were against Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea.
The problem for Sean Dyche’s side is that their home form isn’t much better. The 1-0 victory over Brighton ended a run of three consecutive losses in front of their own supporters.
That home record has contributed to their current position, with just seven points gained from a possible 21.
Gylfi Sigurdsson has undoubtedly been one of the stars of this Everton side, boasting eight goals and two assists from the attacking midfield position.
He’s demonstrated an ability to find the net from open play, but also has an eye for goal from those dead-ball situations.
At a best-price of 3/1, the value is there in him adding to his tally in a game where the Toffees can expect to be on the front foot.
Super 6 prediction: Burnley 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Gylfi Sigurdsson to score anytime at 3/1
Opta facts
- Burnley have won three of their last four games against Everton in the Premier League (L1), including both home and away meetings in the 2017-18 season.
- Everton’s only previous victory at Turf Moor in the Premier League was back in October 2014 (under Roberto Martinez). They’ve lost 2-1 there in each of the last two seasons.
- Burnley are looking to record three consecutive league wins over Everton for the first time since September 1959 (a run of four).
- None of the previous eight meetings between Burnley and Everton in the Premier League have finished level, with both sides winning four games apiece.
- Everton have conceded just five goals in their last 11 Premier League games on Boxing Day (W5 D4 L2), keeping a clean sheet in each of their last three.
Crystal Palace v Cardiff
(Tom Carnduff)
Cardiff were heavily-beaten by Manchester United just days ago, although Neil Warnock blames their ‘Sunday League’ defending as opposed to an ‘Ole Gunnar Solskjaer revolution’.
Boxing Day sees them travel to a Crystal Palace side who massively upset the odds with victory over Manchester City at the Etihad, Andros Townsend scoring one of the goals of the season on their way to three points.
They can expect another win here against a Cardiff side with just the worst away record in England’s top-flight, with just one point from eight games.
That point came against Huddersfield at the end of August, they’ve lost six straight games on the road since then.
Combine that with the fact that Palace have seen an upturn in home form, two wins over Leicester and Burnley, and a home win looks a bit of a banker.
Goals haven’t been a problem for Roy Hodgson’s men in recent weeks, scoring nine goals in their last five.
Averaging near two goals a game should be applauded given how just two of those five were at home and one was that tricky test at the Etihad.
We’re looking at goal scorers again in this way given the potential for the net to be hit on multiple occasions.
The one price that caught my eye is the 7/1 available on Patrick van Aanholt to score anytime against a struggling Cardiff outfit.
The left-back may only have one goal to his name this season, but he has demonstrated his attacking threat at various points throughout the campaign.
He sits fifth for shots taken in this Crystal Palace side with a total of 22. Only the attacking trio of Andros Townsend, Wilfried Zaha, Max Meyer and the set-piece taking Luka Milivojevic have more.
In this type of game, there is value in backing van Aanholt to score again. We’d expect them to enjoy the majority of possession and chances on goal, which should see the defender heavily involved.
Super 6 prediction: Crystal Palace 3-0 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Patrick van Aanholt to score anytime at 7/1
Opta facts
- This will be the first meeting between Crystal Palace and Cardiff City since April 2014, when the Eagles won 3-0 away from home in a Premier League clash.
- Cardiff have lost three of their last four league games against Crystal Palace (L1), including both home and away meetings in the 2013-14 Premier League season.
- Crystal Palace have won both of their Premier League games against Cardiff without conceding (2-0 in December 2013 and 3-0 in April 2014).
- Cardiff are winless in their last five league games played on Boxing Day (D2 L3), with their last such win coming against Crystal Palace in 2012-13 (2-1).
- Cardiff manager Neil Warnock is unbeaten in his last nine away games at Selhurst Park (W6 D3), although each of these meetings took place in the second tier.
- Cardiff midfielder Aron Gunnarsson has scored in each of his last two league appearances against Crystal Palace, however this will be his first such outing against them since December 2012.
Leicester v Man City
(Tom Carnduff)
One caused a huge upset last time out, while the other was also the victim of one.
Leicester beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and as we’ve discussed above, City now find themselves four points behind Liverpool after a shock defeat to Palace.
Despite those results, City are still odds-on 4/11 favourites for victory and we’d expect Pep Guardiola’s men to respond in positive fashion as they aim to close that gap above.
They will also be hoping that Liverpool stumble at some point before the two sides meet at the Etihad next week.
Given home ties against Newcastle and Arsenal beforehand, it’s a likely possibility that the Anfield club will end with six points from six and it’s up to City to keep that pressure on.
We can take lessons on what to expect by looking at City’s 2017/18 campaign, where they lost just three times in the league and cup.
On all three occasions, they would score three goals in the following week.
The 4-3 thriller at Anfield was followed by a 3-1 win over Newcastle, The 3-2 loss to rivals United was followed by a 3-1 away win at Tottenham and the shock FA Cup loss to Wigan was followed by a 3-0 win against Arsenal (with another 3-0 win days later).
They’ve already demonstrated an ability to bounce back under Guardiola’s guidance, and we should expect to see that at the King Power Stadium.
Super 6 prediction: Leicester 1-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Manchester City to win and over 3.5 goals in the game at 11/5
Opta facts
- Leicester are winless in their last four games in all competitions against Manchester City (D1 L3), with each of the three defeats coming in the Premier League.
- Manchester City are looking for their fourth consecutive win against Leicester in the Premier League – prior to this run, they had won just four of their first 11 games against the Foxes in the competition (D2 L5).
- Leicester have won just two of their last 15 games against Manchester City in all competitions (D5 L8), with both of those victories coming under Claudio Ranieri.
- Manchester City have lost just one of their seven away games against Leicester in the Premier League (W4 D2), with that defeat coming in December 2016 (4-2).
- Since they were promoted back to the top-flight in 2014-15, Leicester City have lost all four of their Premier League Boxing Day games.
- Manchester City have won eight of their last 10 Premier League Boxing Day games (D1 L1), winning the last four in a row. Their only defeat in that run came against Sunderland in 2012-13 (0-1).
- Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero has scored five goals in his last three Premier League games against Leicester, with four of those coming in a 5-1 back win in February.
Liverpool v Newcastle
(George Pitts)
If beating Wolves on Friday to put them top of the Christmas charts was not enough, Crystal Palace’s shock win at Manchester City will have given Liverpool a considerable boost.
Jurgen Klopp’s side can keep their lead at the top to at least four points with victory on Wednesday. They are unbeaten and strong at home, so it is difficult to see this game going any other way.
The one threat is coming up against former Reds boss Rafa Benitez, who travels to Anfield on the back of two consecutive clean sheets against relegation rivals, but just one of them resulted in victory. The Magpies have been better away from home so far this season, but this match is a different story, which shows in the betting with them as great as 22/1 for the win.
They gave Man City a good game at the Etihad earlier in the season but it could be fairly comfortable for the hosts this time. They are much more conservative this term, so expect them to get ahead before the game management kicks in and they see out the result. Therefore Liverpool to win and under 3.5 total goals is a decent option - it takes you to around the evens mark and that tastier price could be worth adding to your selections.
The preferred option though, is to look at more specific markets. Backing 4+ corners each team at around 2/1 looks like a good price considering they average five or more corners per game in 2018/19.
Bookings could be the way to go, though. The Magpies average around two bookings per game in the Premier League this season and once the first card comes out they tend to come in a flurry. With the hosts expected to dominate possession, frustrations could kick in and the foul count could be high against a tricky attack, so backing 20+ Newcastle booking points at above evens looks a good shout for the Anfield clash.
Super 6 prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: 20+ Newcastle booking points at 5/4
Opta facts
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 22 home games against Newcastle in all competitions (W18 D4), with their last such defeat coming in November 1995 in the League Cup (0-1).
- Since losing their first ever Premier League home game against Newcastle (0-2 in April 1994), Liverpool are unbeaten in each of the 22 such meetings since (W18 D4).
- Liverpool remain the only unbeaten side after 18 Premier League games this season – it’s their third longest unbeaten run from the start of a top-flight campaign after 1987-88 (29 games, finished 1st) and 1949-50 (19 games, finished 8th).
- No side has conceded fewer goals at this stage of a top-flight season than Liverpool have shipped so far this season (7, level with Chelsea in 2008-09). Meanwhile, only Huddersfield (11) have scored fewer Premier League goals this season than Newcastle (14).
- Liverpool striker Daniel Sturridge has been directly involved in eight goals in his last nine games against Newcastle in the Premier League (seven goals and one assist).
- Newcastle manager Rafael Benitez is winless in his three away games at Anfield against former club Liverpool (D2 L1), losing 0-2 in this fixture last season.
Manchester United v Huddersfield
(George Pitts)
Huddersfield will look to rain on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Boxing Day parade as the Norwegian takes charge of his first Manchester United game at Old Trafford.
The interim boss had a dream start when his side hit five at Cardiff on Saturday and a generous festive Christmas list continues with another game you would expect them to come out on top in.
Of course, there is little value in backing a home victory. Red Devils fans have had little to cheer about this term and you would expect the shackles to come off here, as Solskjaer looks to take the fear out of his side which they can sometimes show in front of United fans.
One player who will be encouraged to express himself after a frustrating season will be Paul Pogba – and it would be no surprise to see him get on the score sheet so soon after Jose Mourinho’s departure.
He was impressive in Wales after returning to the starting line-up, setting up two and trying his luck on three occasions, and he is a general price of 9/5 to score anytime. You can bump that up to 2/1 in a score-and-win double, which is worth a small play considering an upturn in form is expected.
Super 6 prediction: Man United 4-0 Huddersfield (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Paul Pogba to score and Manchester United to win at 2/1
Opta facts
- Manchester United have lost just one of their previous 14 games against Huddersfield in all competitions (W10 D3), with that one defeat coming away from home (1-2 in October 2017).
- Huddersfield are looking for their first away win against Manchester United since September 1930, when they won 6-0 in a top-flight clash. They’ve failed to win any of their last 15 trips in all competitions since then (D5 L10).
- Huddersfield have failed to score in seven of their last 10 games against Manchester United in all competitions, netting just four goals in total in this period.
- Manchester United have never lost a Premier League game at Old Trafford against Yorkshire opposition (W26 D6). The last Yorkshire side to win away against Manchester United in the top-flight were Sheffield Wednesday in April 1986.
- Premier League games involving Manchester United have seen 64 goals this season; no club have witnessed more goals in their matches (scoring 34, conceding 30).
- After going 19 Premier League games without a goal, Jesse Lingard has scored four goals in his last four games for Manchester United, including a brace last time out against Cardiff City.
Tottenham v Bournemouth
(George Pitts)
Earlier in the season there was talk of Spurs players being cautious over Mauricio Pochettino's training sessions and the level of intensity. This was after a lot of their players featured in the latter stages of the World Cup, no summer additions were made and there were fears of burnout and a genuine belief that the north Londoners would drop out of the top four.
Since then, they have made their best start to a Premier League season, gone on long unbeaten runs, qualified for the Champions League knockout stages and put themselves within a genuine chance of the title.
Sunday's 6-2 win over Everton showed us a lot about this side - goals from various areas of attack, the ability to come from behind, the energy and freedom this talented team can play under Pochettino and it is no wonder he is being strongly linked with Man United.
The Argentinian could make changes on Wednesday as he looks to manage a packed schedule, but they should still get the better of the Cherries who have had a tough run of late but returned to winning ways at the weekend. Considering the styles played by both young, promising manages, this could be a Christmas cracker.
Bournemouth average two goals a game this season and keeping it simple with Tottenham to win and both teams to score at nearly 2/1 could be the way to go.
These teams play good football and under 30 booking points at around evens could be worth a small play to double your stake with low discipline expected, but the price on Heung-min Son to get on the score sheet anytime is the favourable option.
The South Korean is due to go to the Asian Games next month and he will be a big miss. He is finally starting to get the recognition he deserves and is on fire at the minute, most recently scoring two and assisting in another in the thrashing at Goodison. He tried his luck four times in total and is clearly not short of confidence, so the 6/4 on offer looks generous and too good to pass up.
Super 6 prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 12/1)
Best bet: Heung-min Son to score anytime at 6/4
Opta facts
- Since losing their first ever meeting (1-3 in February 1957), Spurs are unbeaten in their six games against Bournemouth in all competitions (W5 D1).
- Bournemouth have never beaten Spurs in league competition (P6 W0 D1 L5), with each of those six games coming in the Premier League since the start of the 2015-16 season.
- Bournemouth have conceded 17 goals in their six Premier League games against Spurs, at an average of 2.8 per game.
- After drawing their first Premier League home game of 2018 (1-1 vs West Ham United), none of Tottenham’s last 15 league games at Wembley have ended level (W12 D0 L3).
- Tottenham are still without a draw after 18 Premier League games this season – the last team to have a longer wait for one from the start of a top-flight campaign was Arsenal in 1983-84 (19 games).
- Only Harry Kane (8) and Mohamed Salah (6) have scored more away goals in the Premier League this season than Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson (5).
Odds correct as of 1030 GMT on 24/12/18