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Sporting Life's Premier League preview package and free tips

Premier League tips: Betting previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's action including Manchester City and Chelsea

By George Pitts

Football

Sat October 26, 2019 · 5y ago

Mark your card for Saturday's Premier League games with our best bets and score predictions for each clash.

Recommended bets

1pt Jack Grealish to have 1+ shots on target in Man City v Aston Villa at 9/4

1pt Gerard Deulofeu to score and Watford to win at 3/1

0.5pt John Fleck to score anytime in West Ham v Sheff United at 12/1

1pt Tammy Abraham to score in the first half at 12/5

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Burnley v Chelsea

1730 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League

Tammy Abraham: Nine goals in 13 appearances for Chelsea this season

Chelsea have a tough teatime clash at Burnley as they look to make it seven wins in a row in all competitions.

Frank Lampard's side are gathering pace, their narrow win at Ajax coming thanks to Michy Batshuayi in midweek and the Belgian will be pushing for a start.

Tammy Abraham may keep his place though and the England forward could be key. One price on him particularly catches the eye - Abraham to score in the first half at 12/5.

Seven of the 22-year-old's nine goals this season have come before the interval and the Blues will be keen to get a good start with Sean Dyche's side likely to make the match difficult in the latter stages at Turf Moor.

By his recent standards, not scoring in his last three games for club and country is a bit of a blip, but with a 3.3 shots-per-game average in the Premier League, and his record of scoring on the road in the Premier League, he can make it count here.

Prediction: Burnley 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Best bet: Tammy Abraham to score in the first half at 12/5

Key stats

Burnley have picked up nine points from a possible 12 at home in the Premier League this season, keeping three clean sheets (W3 D0 L1); registering more points (7) and clean sheets (2) than they kept in their opening nine games at Turf Moor in the previous campaign.
Chelsea have won their last three Premier League away games, scoring 3+ on each occasion – the Blues have never won four successive top-flight matches on the road whilst scoring three or more goals.
Chelsea have conceded 28 goals in 13 Premier League away trips in 2019; the most the west London side have conceded in a calendar year since 1997 (31 goals in 21 PL games).
Both Tammy Abraham and Mason Mount have found the net in each of Chelsea’s last three Premier League away games, the last Blues player to score in four consecutive appearances on the road was Diego Costa in December 2016 (four games).

Manchester City v Aston Villa

1230 BST kick-off on BT Sport

(video no longer available)

Man City are usually so strong at the Etihad, so it was a surprise to see Wolves stun Pep Guardiola's side in their last home game.

They bounced back convincingly at Crystal Palace and it really is difficult to see Aston Villa making it back-to-back Etihad defeats for them in the Premier League.

Although...Norwich beat Man City at Carrow Road, while Aston Villa thrashed Norwich at Carrow Road - does that mean something? Probably not, but it can give those optimistic Villa fans a glimmer of hope.

Other than that result in Norfolk, Smith's side have struggled away from Villa Park, so how do they prepare for it?

Reported by Birmingham Live, Smith said: "There's two ways to approach this game. You can say, 'oh no, we're going to Man City or it can be, 'right, we're going to Manchester City and it's a great opportunity to show what we're all about' and, hopefully, our players will take the latter. We're going out against a good team, we've got to concentrate, work hard but they're humans. City have given up a few chances this season. Atalanta scored a pen. Teams have had opportunities against them. The ones you get, you have to take."

Jack Grealish: Celebrations for the Aston Villa midfielder in their win over Brighton

It can be difficult to find value in what will likely be a Man City win. But it is always interesting to look at the opposition and this time it lies with Jack Grealish.

The Villa captain was impressive in last week's comeback win over Brighton, scoring the first and assisting the second, and his displays are improving. Surely Gareth Southgate will be watching with interest.

He will no doubt want to test himself against the best and this is a great stage for him to step up. Given Man City's defensive frailties, Villa will surely get the odd chance in the final third and the price on Grealish to register a shot on target looks too good to turn down.

The attacker has had 11 shots in his last three games, scoring twice, and he will no doubt trouble City in the final third.

Prediction: Man City 3-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Best bet: Jack Grealish to have 1+ shots on target at 9/4

Key stats

In his last four Premier League games, Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has been involved in four goals (2 goals, 2 assists) and created 15 chances for his teammates. In his first five league games this season, he’d been involved in just one goal (1 assist) and created 10 chances.
Manchester City haven’t lost consecutive home league games since February 2016, while Pep Guardiola has never lost back-to-back home games in his entire managerial league career.
Manchester City have already lost against Norwich this season – they’ve not lost to two promoted sides in a single Premier League season since 2008-09 (West Brom and Stoke), while they haven’t lost at home against a promoted team since 2006-07 (vs Reading).
Man City’s Sergio Aguero has scored six goals in his last four Premier League games against Aston Villa, including five in his last three against them at the Etihad.

Brighton v Everton

Gylfi Sigurdsson scores Everton's second against West Ham

Everton were desperate for a good performance at the end of last month and they delivered that at Goodison, losing valiantly to Man City.

After this performance you expected them to kick on under Marco Silva, then they had a shocker at Burnley. The international break bought the Portuguese time and they came back with an impressive showing against a top-half rival in West Ham, where they actually had an identity, and now they should look to kick on.

Silva should keep the same side and take them to Brighton confident of putting a run together.

That they can, to get what will be their first away win of the season in the Premier League and there is value in just keeping this one simple, with a 9/4 price on the Toffees to win with over 1.5 total goals in the game.

Brighton have won just twice all season and have so far struggled for consistency and Silva's side can capitalise at the Amex.

Super 6 prediction: Brighton 0-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Best bet: Everton to win and over 1.5 total goals at 12/5

Key stats

The home side has never lost a Premier League meeting between Brighton and Everton (W3 D1), with Brighton winning this exact fixture 1-0 last season.
Everton have only registered consecutive Premier League wins under Marco Silva on two previous occasions, winning three games in a row in September/October 2018 and March/April 2019.
Everton haven’t lost four consecutive away Premier League matches since losing five in a row between December 2017 and March 2018 under Sam Allardyce.
Everton are one of only two Premier League teams this season to score 100% of their goals in open play (8/8), along with Newcastle United.

Listen: Premier League Weekly

Gareth Jones, George Pitts, Tom Carnduff and Tom McDermott discuss the big talking points from the latest round of Premier League games.

Listen to the latest Sporting Life Premier League podcast

Watford v AFC Bournemouth

Gerard Deulofeu: Spanish ace in action for Watford

Watford came so close to securing their first Premier League win of the season last time out, but for Dele Alli's late goal and VAR drama. This is the very opportunity for Quique Sanchez Flores' side to get up and running.

They performed well at Tottenham and could have been two or three up before the hosts equalised, and their expected goals tally (12th in the league, with 11.78) suggests the Hornets should have scored more than they have.

The Hornets are still creating chances and that is a positive and Bournemouth, without a win in four in all competitions, are there for the taking.

The Hornets are slight favourites, 6/5 in the straight win market, but we are going for a 3/1 shot, with Gerard Deulofeu fancied to score and Watford to win.

The Spaniard is arguably one of the Hornets' most talented players and he was unfortunate not to earn Watford a penalty at Spurs when he was taken down in the box by Jan Vertonghen.

The former Barcelona man is still looking for his first goal of the season, but averages 2.4 shots per game in the league this season and can finally get on the score sheet in a home victory at Vicarage Road.

Super 6 prediction: Watford 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 11/1)

Best bet: Gerard Deulofeu to score and Watford to win at 3/1

Key stats

There were 10 goals scored in the two Premier League meetings between Watford and Bournemouth last season, with nine of those strikes coming in the first half.
Bournemouth are goalless in their last two Premier League matches; only twice previously have the Cherries failed to score in three successive games, most recently in December 2017. Before this current run, Bournemouth had scored in 10 consecutive league fixtures.
Watford defender José Holebas has received 41 cards in 108 Premier League games (40 yellows, 1 red); of players to have made 100+ appearances in the competition, no player has a higher average of games per card (2.6 games per card).

West Ham v Sheffield United

John Fleck: Midfield ace in action for Sheffield United

A tough result to call - West Ham need a positive performance after last week's display at Everton, especially on a run of just one win in their last six (all competitions), while Sheffield United will be buoyant after beating Arsenal.

After such a result against a top six side, teams can often suffer in the aftermath and this could be the case for Chris Wilder's men, but the Blades can at least get on the score sheet and there is a 12/1 anytime goalscorer shout in their ranks that is well worth considering.

Midfielder John Fleck has never scored in the Premier League (in only seven appearances, to be fair), but he is impressing and pushing to get on the score sheet.

The Scotland international came close against the Gunners on Monday, taking two shots and forcing Bernd Leno into a save on one occasion.

In the games before that, he had two shots against Watford, one against Liverpool and previously registered five against Southampton and one against Palace.

The way the Blades play enables Fleck to get in positions to try his luck and this could be the weekend it pays off. At 12s, it's well worthy of a small play.

Super 6 prediction: West Ham 2-1 Sheff United (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 9/1)

Best bet: John Fleck to score anytime at 12/1

Key stats

West Ham lost 2-1 against Crystal Palace in their last home Premier League game – the Hammers haven’t lost consecutive league games at London Stadium since September 2018.
Sheffield United are one of only two Premier League teams still unbeaten away from home this season (W1 D3 L0), along with Liverpool. The last newly-promoted team to go unbeaten in their first five away Premier League games of a season were Hull City in 2008-09 under Phil Brown.
Since the start of the 2016-17 season, Chris Wilder has won 79 league matches as manager of Sheffield United – in the top four tiers, only Jurgen Klopp (81) and Pep Guardiola (93) have won more in that time.
Sheffield United striker Lys Mousset has only started two Premier League matches in the last two seasons – but the Frenchman has found the net in both, against Arsenal in February and October 2019.
Based on Opta's expected goals on target data (xGoT), Sheffield United’s Dean Henderson has prevented 4 goals in the Premier League this season; no goalkeeper has prevented more. In fact, Henderson has kept 25 clean sheets in the league since the start of last season; more than any other goalkeeper in England's top four tiers.