After landing two winners at 4/5 and 11/2 on Saturday, Michael Beardmore looks at Sunday's final between Sunderland v Tranmere and has best bets at 19/10, 8/1 and 100/1.
Football betting tips: Papa John's Trophy finals
1pt Sunderland to be leading Tranmere after 30 minutes at 19/10 (William Hill)
0.5pt Paul Lewis to score anytime in Sunderland v Tranmere at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.25pt e.w. George Ray to score first in Sunderland v Tranmere at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair) (e.w. terms 1/3 odds 1-5 places)
2pt Under 2.5 goals in Portsmouth v Salford at 4/5 (General)
1pt Either team to win on penalties in Portsmouth v Salford at 11/2 (General)
We’re used to lots of firsts in this ‘new normal’ world we’ve lived in this past year – and there’s another in store at Wembley Stadium this Saturday and Sunday.
For the first time ever, two Football League Trophy finals will be played on the same weekend as the Covid-delayed 2020 final between Portsmouth and Salford is followed by the 2021 showpiece in which Sunderland face Tranmere.
Sunderland v Tranmere betting tips
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Sunderland 4/5 | Draw 12/5 | Tranmere 16/5
In stark contrast to Saturday’s final between Portsmouth and Salford sides struggling for confidence, Sunday’s showpiece features two of the lower leagues’ most in-form teams.
Since Lee Johnson took over in early December, Sunderland have lost just three out of 23 games in all competitions, winning 13 to lift themselves into automatic promotion contention in League One as well as this final.
They have won six of their past seven in the league – coming from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 at Crewe in the other – and edged out fellow third-tier high-fliers Lincoln on the penalties in the Trophy semis during that run.
But Tranmere’s form has been just as impressive since Keith Hill took over in late November – 17 wins in 26 games in all competitions.
It’s a run that’s catapulted them to the fringe of the League Two automatic promotion places and into the final of this competition, taking the scalps of the under-23s of Manchester City and Leicester plus League One promotion-chasing pair Peterborough and Oxford on the way.
The big blow for Rovers, though, is the absence of 21-goal top scorer and former Sunderland striker James Vaughan, who requires knee surgery.
Can Sunderland conquer Wembley curse?
Perhaps fittingly for a team nicknamed the Black Cats, a tale of bad luck dominates Sunderland trips to Wembley – they have lost on each of their past seven visits since their 1973 FA Cup triumph over Leeds.
Could that be a factor? Well, it’s something the players will be aware of but the absence of fans will surely relieve that burden of expectation somewhat.
It’s also a far different scenario – in those past finals, whether they be cups or play-offs, Sunderland have faced sides superior to them or their equal. In this instance, they take on a team from a league below.
They will be aware of the importance of an early goal and while there’s little value in most of the Sunderland win markets (a tiny 2/5 in 90 minutes for example) or in backing top marksman Charlie Wyke in the goalscorer stakes.
I much prefer the 19/10 William Hill offer on SUNDERLAND TO BE LEADING AFTER 30 MINUTES.
Since Johnson took over, Sunderland have been fast starters, scoring 16 goals inside the opening half-hour in his 23 games in charge, leading at the 30-minute mark in 10 of those 23.
Sunderland have kept five clean sheets in their past six league games and boast the third tier’s best defence so a Black Cats win to nil holds some appeal at 21/10 with Sky Bet.
But I just have a feeling Tranmere will make a real game of this and with Vaughan missing, there is certainly value to be found in the Wirral outfit’s goalscoring markets.
The man I’m pinning my mast to is midfielder Paul Lewis who has netted six goals this season including two in his past four games as well as having another disallowed for offside.
He is 18/1 to score first in some places but you can get almost half those odds on PAUL LEWIS TO SCORE ANYTIME with Paddy Power and Betfair at 8/1 - a great price on a man very much in the groove.
Finally, as a bit of cup final fun, throw your spare change at Rovers centre-half GEORGE RAY TO SCORE FIRST at a whopping 100/1.
- Click here to back Paul Lewis to score anytime with Sky Bet
- Click here to back George Ray to score first with Sky Bet
Ray netted last time out at Southend and has recently come back into favour after spending much of the season out of the side. His central defensive partner Peter Clarke is 28/1 tops so 100s is excessive on Ray – and we can take the 1/3 odds each-way terms on offer with Paddy Power and Betfair's first five places so it's just over 33s anytime.
Sunderland v Tranmere best bets and score prediction
- Sunderland to be leading after 30 minutes at 19/10 (William Hill)
- Paul Lewis to score anytime at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- George Ray to score first at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair) (e.w. terms 1/3 odds 1-5 places)
Score prediction: Sunderland 3-2 Tranmere (Sky Bet odds: 28/1)
Odds correct at 1240 GMT on 12/03/21
Portsmouth v Salford betting tips
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Portsmouth 19/20 | Draw 23/10 | Salford 11/4
The bookies are missing a trick with no markets around how many of Salford’s famed 'Class of 92' ownership will be in attendance at Wembley on Saturday afternoon as the League Two underdogs face Portsmouth.
The Nevilles, Becks, Giggsy, Scholesy and, er, nickname-less Nicky Butt will have had plenty of time to free their diaries – this, remember, is the Covid-delayed 2019-20 final that should have been played a year ago, the first of two League One v League Two finals this weekend.
That sextet graced the Wembley pitch on countless occasions, of course, but they will have to make do with a socially-distanced directors' box on Saturday as Salford bid to serve up an upset against Pompey.
Kenny Jackett's final stand at Portsmouth?
Five defeats in their past seven League One games have placed Portsmouth’s play-off spot under severe threat – Pompey have slumped to sixth with automatic promotion now an afterthought.
Defeats to Doncaster and Sunderland are little to be ashamed of but Portsmouth have also lost to struggling pair Bristol Rovers and Northampton – hammered 4-1 by League One’s lowest scorers.
The knives are out for boss Kenny Jackett and, in truth, defending the EFL Trophy crown they won by beating Sunderland in 2019 is not going to satisfy the naysayers. Promotion is the measuring stick.
Indeed, there’s an argument that Tuesday night’s league trip to second-placed Peterborough is the more important game for Portsmouth and it will be interesting to see if Jackett’s team selection aligns with that. Alternatively, he may feel a Wembley win is the tonic to fix their ails.
Either way, given their form, Portsmouth would seem ripe for an upset but Salford have hardly been pulling up trees either, a run of one win in six games seeing them slip out of the League Two play-off places.
The Ammies, however, do boast the fourth tier’s stingiest defence, conceding a league-low 27 in 33 games – and with Pompey struggling for goals, just five in their past seven matches, the stage is surely set for a low-scoring affair.
Six of Salford’s past seven games have seen two goals or fewer, as have four of Pompey’s past six, and with the occasion of a Wembley final likely to lead to caution from both sides, UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks a clever play at what seems an overpriced 4/5 generally.
So tight do I expect this one to be that there’s every chance it could go all the way to penalties, just like Portsmouth’s 2019 Trophy triumph over Sunderland.
I like the price of 11/2 available generally on EITHER SIDE TO WIN ON PENALTIES – it feels like the sort of game that could be decided from 12 yards: a solid Salford side against a Pompey outfit scared of a shock.
The Ammies won the National League play-off final at Wembley two years ago and have a number of experienced heads so they won’t be overawed by the occasion – back them to make a game of this by taking Portsmouth to penalties in a tight one.
Portsmouth v Salford best bets and score prediction
- Under 2.5 goals at 4/5
- Either team to win on penalties at 11/2
Score prediction: Portsmouth 0-0 Salford (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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