Crystal Palace v Burnley betting preview: Premier League predictions, free betting tips, best bets and stats for Monday Night Football

Recommended bets

• 1pt Crystal Palace Win to Nil at 13/5
• 1pt Crystal Palace and Under 2.5 goals in match at 16/5

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Crystal Palace v Burnley

• 2000 BST kick-off on Amazon Prime Video
• Match Odds: Home 5/4 | Draw 21/10 | Away 12/5

You'd be right to consider Palace and Burnley as the epitome of mid-table, 10th and 11th respectively, separated only by goal difference. But they are just three points adrift of seventh-placed Tottenham, so depending on the outcome of the FA Cup - and Manchester City's appeal against a European ban - Europa League qualification might not necessarily be beyond them.

It's been a mixed start for both clubs since the return to action, but one that each probably would have accepted beforehand - Palace winning at Bournemouth then thrashed by Liverpool, Burnley thrashed by Manchester City then winning against Watford.

There really is no beating about the bush is there, this is not a game that you'd look out for when the fixtures are released is it. Or maybe you would if you're a Crystal Palace fan - the Eagles are chasing a fifth straight win over the team from Lancashire.

Roy Hodgson's team have won the last three by a two-goal margin, but they've all been pretty tight affairs - even the 3-1 victory in March 2019, which included a late consolation goal, was a flattering scoreline.

That contest is the only occasion in the sides' previous six meetings that both teams have scored, stretching back to April 2017. During those three years, neither has particularly evolved their squad or playing style, so that feels like something we should be looking to back.

You can actually get marginally better odds on Palace to win to nil, than Palace to win and BTTS no (13/5 rather than 5/2) so that's what we're going with.

A major blow for Palace is the absence of Wilfired Zaha, who limped off in the early stages of their defeat at Anfield and won't be fit for the visit of Burnley.

Enough has been said and written in the past about the Eagles' record without him, going more than 800 days winless in the league up to December 2018, and while they're undoubtedly better at finding a different way nowadays, their chances of victory must drop when they lose their best player.

But in pure numbers terms, all he has provided this season is three goals and three assists in the top flight, with Jordan Ayew (9) topping the Palace scoring charts. Zaha's absence will place even more emphasis on the Ghanaian to provide that threat, so backing him to score anytime at 9/4 is a good option.

In a match where I really do not see many goals though, I'm going to avoid the goalscorers market and look towards the Unders instead - especially when Palace should have Vicente Guaita back from injury, one of the stand-out goalkeepers in this season's Premier League. If Ayew does look a major threat early on he could be worth backing in play, though.

The lack of one player must seem mild in comparison to what Sean Dyche is dealing with.

Contract issues at Burnley mean they're barely able to scrape together 18 first-team players, never mind the increased 20 that's allowable in the coronavirus-adjusted match-day regulations. Having neither Ashley Barnes nor Chris Wood completely guts them as a team.

Overcoming those difficulties is what made their win over Watford all the more impressive.

But Palace are better, harder to beat and crucially far more consistent than the Hornets. I just do not see Burnley taking anything back to Turf Moor.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Best bets:

• 1pt Crystal Palace Win to Nil at 13/5
• 1pt Crystal Palace and Under 2.5 goals in match at 16/5

Opta stats

• Crystal Palace have won their last four Premier League games against Burnley by an aggregate score of 8-1. In their top-flight history, they’ve only won more consecutively against Wimbledon (five between 1989-1991).
• Burnley have won just one of their last 13 away league games against Crystal Palace (D6 L6), winning 2-0 in a Premier League match in April 2017.
• Since their return to the Premier League in 2013, Crystal Palace have won just two of their 13 league games played on Monday (D5 L6), though these victories came against Man City (April 2015) and Arsenal (April 2017).
• In their last game against Liverpool, Crystal Palace conceded more goals (4) than they had in their previous five Premier League games combined (3). Meanwhile, they also became the first Premier League team since 2008-09 to fail to have a single touch in the opposition box in a match.
• Burnley have had fewer shots on target in away matches than any other Premier League side this season (35). The Clarets have failed to direct a single shot on target in either of their last two away league games.
• Crystal Palace (9) and Burnley (10) have scored the fewest first half Premier League goals this season, although there’s been at least one goal scored in the first half of the last eight Premier League meetings between the sides, with Palace going in 1-0 ahead in each of the last four.
• Burnley have kept 12 Premier League clean sheets this season, their joint-most in a season (also 12 in 2017/18). They last kept more in a top-flight season in the 1954/55 campaign (16).
• Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored in his last two Premier League games against Burnley – only against Leicester has the Ivorian scored in three consecutive appearances in the competition.
• 89% of Crystal Palace midfielder Luka Milivojevic’s 27 Premier League goals have come from either the penalty spot (21) or a direct free-kick (3), the highest such ratio of anyone to score 20+ goals in the competition.
• Dwight McNeil has assisted six Premier League goals this season for Burnley – he has more assists than any other player aged under-21 in the Premier League this season.

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