Football betting tips: League One
2pts Oxford to win at 5/6 (Coral, William Hill)
1pt Josh Murphy to score anytime at 19/4 (BetVictor)
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It's been a strange season for Oxford. They looked automatic promotion candidates in Sky Bet League One under Liam Manning but when he left for Bristol City in November, the wheels began to dislodge.
Manning's successor Des Buckingham won just five of his first 20 league games in charge as the U's went from top-two hopefuls to out of the top six completely.
However, they have re-found form just at the right time, winning five of their past eight, including a statement 5-0 mauling of Peterborough, to put their play-off destiny back in their own hands, although a midweek defeat by Lincoln was a setback.
It's been a fine first season back in the third tier for Stevenage, in top-six contention all campaign until a costly recent run of one win in 10 that has all but ended their chances - and they lost boss Steve Evans back to Rotherham this week too.
What are the best bets?
Even before Evans' decision to leave a potentially demoralised Stevenage, the form lines suggested the hosts should be strong favourites for this one - and OXFORD know a victory will go a massive way towards sealing their spot in the play-offs.
Odds of 5/6 about the hosts TO WIN simply have to be snapped up against a Stevenage side without a victory in seven on the road.
By contrast, Oxford's recent home form is strong. Yes, they lost to Lincoln in midweek but the Imps are arguably the division's form side, with 11 wins in 15. Prior to that, the U's scored 13 goals to nil in winning their previous three games 5-0, 4-0 and 4-0.
Speaking of being on-fire, I cannot let Oxford winger JOSH MURPHY go unbacked here at huge odds of 19/4, almost 5/1, TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Murphy has netted six goals in his past 13 matches and is thriving since earning a regular starting spot under Buckingham. His shot count reflects his buoyant mood, unleashing 37 efforts in those 13 games at an average of almost three per match.
BuildABet @55/1
- Oxford to win
- Murphy to score 2+ goals
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
As mentioned, Murphy has scored six times in his past 13 - and on five of those occasions, he's been unlucky not to net multiple goals within a game. A punt on him to finally achieve that here boosts a BAB to a tasty 55/1.
Team news
Oxford hope left-back Joe Bennett will be back after a knock forced him to miss their past two games, while Cameron Brannagan returned from an ankle injury as a substitute in Tuesday's loss to Lincoln.
Elliott Moore (pictured below) is 50/50 after a hip problem while Will Goodwin (leg) is definitely out. Oxford are sweating over the fitness of veteran midfielder James Henry, who hobbled off with an ankle injury in Saturday's thrashing of Peterborough.
Stevenage will be without midfielder Dan Butler who was sent off in the defeat by Burton last Saturday that all but mathematically put paid to any faint play-off hopes.
Predicted line-ups
Oxford: Cumming; Stevens, Long, Brown, Leigh; McEachran; Brannagan, Rodrigues, Murphy, Dale; Harris.
Stevenage: MacGillivray; N Thompson, Vancooten, Piergianni; White, Burns, B Thompson, L Thompson; Reid, List, Pressley.
Match facts
- Oxford United are unbeaten in five league meetings with Stevenage (W3 D2) since a 1-2 defeat in March 2011.
- Stevenage are unbeaten away to Oxford United in the Football League, drawing two and winning one of three such trips.
- Oxford United have lost just one of their last six league games (W4 D1), though that sole loss did come in a 1-0 defeat to Lincoln City last time out at the Kassam Stadium.
- Stevenage have failed to win any of their last seven away league games (D4 L3), while they’ve failed to score in four of their last six league games on the road, having done so in just two of their first 16 such games in 2023-24.
Odds correct at 1630 BST (17/04/24)
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