Premier League leaders Arsenal visit League One side Oxford in the FA Cup third round on Monday night. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and two best bets.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Oxford 4+ corners at 15/8 (Sky Bet, Boyle Sports)
0.5pt Ciaron Brown to be shown a card at 8/1 (Bet365)
The big news from an Arsenal viewpoint ahead of the Premier League leaders' FA Cup third round trip to Sky Bet League One side Oxford on Monday evening is the possible return of Emile Smith Rowe from a long lay-off.
The 22-year-old England midfielder has played just 48 minutes of football this season after a groin issue that ultimately required surgery and this could be the ideal comeback match for him.
Mikel Arteta is likely to shuffle his pack for this cup tie but one look at the Gunners’ bench against Newcastle in midweek shows he is short of cards to play in that respect.
He could promote some academy players but there is still likely to be a decent smattering of first-teamers given a) Arteta’s paucity of options and b) his historical respect for the competition.
The 2020 FA Cup remains the only major trophy Arsenal have won under Arteta and even though they have exited the competition early the past two seasons, they have not fielded weak sides.
There is also the matter of momentum – a cup shock to a third-tier team could severely dent the confidence of a side who are well aware Manchester City are hot on their tails in the Premier League title race.
Oxford are firmly entrenched in mid-table obscurity in League One and their home record of W4 D3 L5 hardly yields optimism – but this is the FA Cup, right?
In a two-horse race, odds of 18/1 on the hosts do seem a tad on the generous side and I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from having a quid or two on them just for the fun of it. Sillier things have happened.
Nonetheless, there are so many unknowns here – as there will be across the third-round ties involving Premier League teams – that we should stick to what we know in terms of an educated punt.
Smith Rowe is 7/4 to score anytime if you fancy him to immediately recapture the form that brought him to everyone’s attention but I prefer to side with the hosts here as we know what we’ll get. Not in terms of the result – but with 4+ OXFORD CORNERS.
Despite sitting 14th in the third tier, Oxford lie fifth in terms of average corners per home game (6.75) and are top of the shop in shots per home game (19.1) – they tend to have a real go at the Kassam and surely they will be pumped up here.
We have to factor in the rise in quality of opposition but if we assume that Arsenal will not be at full strength, I’m confident the hosts can force the four flag-kicks they need for this bet to land - and the price of 15/8 makes it worth a go.
I also cannot ignore the 8/1 Bet365 offer on CIARON BROWN TO BE SHOWN A CARD. The Oxford defender has four bookings to his name this season and he leads his side in 1.6 tackles per game.
Against a top-quality side, that tendency to put a foot in could be exposed and the price looks far too big.
Oxford v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- Oxford 4+ corners at 15/8 (Sky Bet, Boyle Sports)
- Ciaron Brown to be shown a card at 8/1 (Bet365)
Score prediction: Oxford 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1830 GMT (06/01/23)
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