Notts County's bid to regain Football League status continues with Sunday's National League play-off semi-final against Boreham Wood. Michael Beardmore selects his best bet.
There’s always been a debate about the fairness of the play-off system ever since it was introduced more than 35 years ago.
But surely in the history of the concept there are fewer inequities than Notts County having to face a Boreham Wood side they finished 35 points – THIRTY-FIVE! – clear of in the regular season.
The Magpies ended the National League season with a whopping +75 goal difference and just three defeats but even that was not enough to prevent Hollywood-backed Wrexham claiming the title.
Given the above, you could forgive County fans for being a tad apprehensive about Sunday’s play-off semi-final – especially when you consider their visitors are one of only two sides they’ve failed to beat this season.
Both of those encounters ended in draws but the Wood have limped into the play-offs, clinging on to a spot despite five defeats in the final 10 games of the regular season before squeezing past Barnet in the quarter-finals.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Famous last words but I can’t see a way County fail to win this. However, when they are top price 2/5 to do so and 41-goal top scorer Macaulay Langstaff – the non-league Haaland – is just 7/10 to net anytime, we need to dig for value.
County are far from a one-man team despite Langstaff’s jaw-dropping tally – they have three other players in double figures and have spread their goals around 17 players overall. Picking between them though is tough and, again, prices are short.
This match basically pits the irresistible force against the immovable object – County, the division’s top scorers with a ridiculous 117 goals against the league’s meanest defence, Boreham Wood having conceded a paltry 40.
The visitors specialise in keeping matches tight – a huge 78% of their games this season featuring under 2.5 goals. They will do their level best to avoid getting sucked into a wild shoot-out they know they can't win.
County are almost polar opposites – 70% of games over 2.5 – but with what’s at stake here they could well curb those gung-ho tendencies, confident they have enough quality to come through.
I fancy they will be made to work hard but eventually triumph, making the 6/5 available on NOTTS COUNTY TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS look the value play.
Notts County v Boreham Wood score prediction and best bet
- Notts County to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/5 (General)
Score prediction: Notts County 2-0 Boreham Wood (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct 1130 BST (05/05/23)
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
Fast Results
Scores
