Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Noussair Mazraoui to be shown a card at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Noussair Mazraoui to be sent off at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 33/1
- Noussair Mazraoui to be shown a card
- Elliot Anderson 1+ assists
We could continue to use the 'dare to dream' cliché in regards to Nottingham Forest but at this stage, a trophy-less campaign which ends outside the Champions League places will leave a slight sense of disappointment.
And that statement in itself highlights the remarkable rise of this team under Nuno Espirito Santo's guidance.
Currently third in the Premier League table and into the semi-finals of the FA Cup, even the most loyal of those who follow the club would have laughed uncontrollably at that situation being explained to them when Sabri Lamouchi and Chris Hughton combined for a 17th-placed finish in the Sky Bet Championship less than four years ago.
If Forest are dreaming, Manchester United fans are experiencing a nightmare, by their own previous lofty standards anyway.
Lingering in 13th, the Europa League is their only hope of salvaging an otherwise awful campaign. Laughable on-pitch performances have been combined with disgraceful decisions off it and the sooner the summer comes the better.
The top-flight campaign for them is long over with nothing realistic to play for in terms of notable positions. Anything other than a home win and Forest will view it as a missed opportunity.
What are the best bets?
That officiating team appointed to this game is making me consider looking at bookings.
Referee Jarred Gillett has dished out at least four cards in seven of his ten top-flight games this season, with four shown in an all-Premier League clash between Brighton and Chelsea in the FA Cup fourth round.
The one player I'm particularly interested in is NOUSSAIR MAZRAOUI, with 11/2 available on a card and 66s that he's sent off.
- CLICK HERE to back Noussair Mazraoui to be shown a card with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Noussair Mazraoui to be sent off with Sky Bet
It's unclear whether he'll feature at right wing-back or on that side of the back-three but I'm still happy to back the bet regardless - he's shown he'll commit fouls or tackles in either role.
Mazraoui has only been booked twice this season and yet he sits third among United players for fouls committed in league games so far - he's seen 32 in 29 outings.
Two of the three games where he's returned three or more fouls were at centre-back. Both of those being in away games against Arsenal and Tottenham too.
In fact, since Ruben Amorim's arrival, Mazraoui has seen at least one foul committed in 12 of 16 starts. It's certainly a shift from the successful tackles returns we were seeing under previous management.
Five of 11 league starts (46%) prior to Amorim delivered five or more successful tackles. Since then, it's four in 16 (25%). He's seemingly less engaged but when he is, there's more potential for fouls.
In terms of those 'engaged' actions (fouls + tackles), 34% have been the former of the two under current management - up from 25% before. It carried over into the Europa League as well - the figure is at 35% for fouls from 23% previously.
And then we can add in the fact that Forest have demonstrated a clear preference to attack down their left side this season.
A significant - and league-leading - 47% of attacks created have been down their left flank. That should mean a busy evening for Mazraoui, and one which should see him catch the referee's attention.
Team news
Nottingham Forest face an anxious wait to see if star duo Morgan Gibbs-White and Chris Wood are fit enough for involvement on Tuesday night.
Gibbs-White hobbled off during their FA Cup victory over Brighton last time out while Wood was injured while on international duty with New Zealand.
Nuno said that other day that Wood's injury was "not good" but hinted that Gibbs-White could have been taken off with fatigue a potential factor.
For United, Patrick Dorgu is back from suspension but it's unclear if he'll return straight into the side or they stick with Diogo Dalot at left wing-back for now.
Amad Diallo, Jonny Evans, Kobbie Mainoo, Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw are all missing through injury.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest XI: Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Anderson, Dominguez; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Awoniyi.
Manchester United XI: Onana; Yoro, Lindelof, De Ligt; Mazraoui, Fernandes, Ugarte, Dalot; Garnacho, Eriksen; Hojlund.
Match facts
- Following their 3-2 win at Old Trafford in December, Nottingham Forest are looking to complete their first league double over Manchester United since 1991-92 under Brian Clough.
- Manchester United have lost their last two Premier League games against Nottingham Forest, more than they had in their first 13 beforehand (W10 D2 L1).
- Nottingham Forest won this exact fixture 2-1 last season, last winning against Man Utd at the City Ground in consecutive league campaigns in 1988-89/1989-90.
- Excluding 0-0 draws, the team scoring first has won 71% of Nottingham Forest’s games in the Premier League this season (20/28), a joint-high ratio in the division (Southampton also 20/28). The Tricky Trees have gone 1-0 ahead a league-high 22 times in the Premier League in 2024-25, winning 15 of those occasions (68%), however they have gone on to lose five of the six league games they have conceded first in this term (83%).
- After their 3-0 win at Leicester, Manchester United are looking to win back-to-back Premier League games this season for the first time, and back-to-back away league games for the first time since winning three in a row in February 2024. The Red Devils are one of only three sides yet to win successive Premier League fixtures this season, along with Ipswich Town and Southampton.
- Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last eight home league games, winning six of them (D2), which is as many wins as their previous 24 at the City Ground beforehand (W6 D7 L11). The Tricky Trees last went longer without a home Premier League defeat in March 2023 (9).
- Nottingham Forest have scored 49 goals from an expected goals tally of 37.5 in the Premier League this season, with their overperformance of 11.5 the biggest in the division this term. Conversely, Man Utd have conceded 40 goals from 45.5 expected goals against (5.5 overperformance), with only Tottenham Hotspur (6.3) having a better xGA difference in their favour in the 2024-25 Premier League.
- Morgan Gibbs-White has assisted a goal in both of Nottingham Forest’s last two Premier League games; the only players to assist a goal in three successive appearances for the club in the competition are Steve Stone (Apr 1995), Ian Woan (Nov 1995), Gibbs-White himself (Apr 2024), and Anthony Elanga (Jan 2025).
- Bruno Fernandes has scored (3 goals) or assisted (3 assists) a goal in each of his last four Premier League games for Manchester United. Only twice before has he had a longer run of goal involvements in the competition: five appearances from February to June 2020, and six from December 2022 to February 2023.
- For Manchester United against Leicester last time out, Alejandro Garnacho scored his first Premier League goal in 17 appearances, while Rasmus Højlund scored his first in his last 14 games in the competition. Garnacho has never previously found the net in successive appearances in the Premier League, while Højlund last did so in May 2024.
Odds correct at 1245 BST (31/03/25)
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