Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Nottingham Forest or Draw (Double Chance) at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 27/20 (Betway, Unibet)
1pt Murillo 1+ total shots at 5/4 (bet365, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Murillo to score anytime at 30/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Murillo to score from outside the penalty area at 80/1 (Sky Bet)
Three defeats in four Premier League games against Newcastle, Arsenal and Manchester City - all matches in which they conceded three goals - triggered inevitable suggestions that Nottingham Forest were regressing towards the mean.
It was unsustainable after all. We all knew it.
Five weeks later and they sit third having won seven straight matches in all competitions.
Leaders Liverpool, whose defeat by Forest in September is one of only two in 30 games under Arne Slot, could hardly be going to the City Ground at a worse time.
What are the best bets?
What Nuno Espirito Santo's team are achieving is all the more incredible considering they narrowly avoided relegation in May.
Their turnaround has been built on defensive organisation. They've kept five straight clean sheets - no team has kept more than their nine in the league this season.
At home, 3-1 loss to Newcastle to one side, they've conceded only four goals across their eight other fixtures.
Thirteen of their 22 matches this season have involved UNDER 2.5 GOALS and at 27/20 we should back that outcome here.
In-form Forest over-priced
Remarkably, Forest would move within three points of Liverpool with victory on Tuesday night.
Liverpool lost for the first time on the road under Slot just last week, a first defeat full stop since being shocked by Forest at Anfield four months ago.
Should it happen again here we shouldn't be at all surprised. Aside from the aforementioned defeats, Forest have lost one other match in all competitions this season.
Comparing Carabao Cup prices with the Premier League doesn't work, instead looking at when Liverpool went to Tottenham in the top flight last month, Spurs were 3/1.
Forest can be backed at 9/2 here, a price I wouldn't put anyone off taking, however the 11/8 on the FOREST OR DRAW (DOUBLE CHANCE) feels a smarter way in.
Newcastle, Fulham and Manchester United have all taken points off Liverpool in the past five weeks, a period in which Nuno's men have been faultless.
Roberto Carlos wannabe?
In centre-back MURILLO, Forest clearly possess a player who has seen plenty of clips of compatriot Robert Carlos in his prime.
During 18 months at the club, the Brazilian has developed quite the habit of shooting from distance, so much so he's now on free-kick duty.
In 2023/24, Murillo had 17 attempts on goal. Six were from outside the box and two even came from inside his own half.
This term there has clearly been a more focused approach, with all 15 shots coming from within the width of the penalty area. There has been a mixture of open play and set-piece attempts, with eight of his 15 from outside the box.
Taking the eccentric South American to simply have 1+ TOTAL SHOTS is advised at 5/4.
The effectiveness of Forest on the counter and Liverpool's tendency to prevent attacks by making a foul near halfway gives this a great chance of landing.
Murillo has also scored a header from a corner already this season, and with only Crystal Palace (8) and Arsenal (10) scoring more goals from dead-balls than Forest (7), taking small stakes to him TO SCORE ANYTIME and TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX is advised at respective 30/1 and 80/1 quotes.
Team news
Nuno is likely to revert to his first choice Forest XI after ringing the changes for their FA Cup win over Luton. Danilo returned from a long-term ankle injury as a late substitute in that game, leaving Ibrahim Sangare as their only absentee.
Liverpool are also likely to hand out plenty of recalls following victory over Accrington. They have a fully-fit squad aside from Joe Gomez who remains out with a hamstring injury, though Darwin Nunez is suspended for this one.
Predicted line-ups
Forest: Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Anderson, Dominguez; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.
Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Jones, Gakpo; Diaz.
Match facts
- Following a 1-0 win at Anfield in the reverse fixture in September, Nottingham Forest are looking to complete their first league double over Liverpool since the 1962-63 campaign.
- Liverpool won this exact fixture 1-0 last season, ending a 13-game winless run in away league games against Nottingham Forest (D7 L6).
- Should Nottingham Forest win this match against Liverpool, it would be only the third occasion that both of a team’s first two defeats of a Premier League season have come against the same opponent, after Manchester United against Chelsea in 1993-94 and Newcastle United against Liverpool in 2022-23.
- Nottingham Forest have won each of their last six Premier League games, while a win over Liverpool will see them equal their longest ever league winning run of seven, set four times previously (February 1893, December 1906, October 1921, and September 1979).
- Nottingham Forest have won five of their last six Premier League home games (L1), more than they had in their previous 21 at the City Ground (W4 D7 L10). Forest are looking to win four consecutive home league games within the same top-flight season for the first time since January 1996.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in all nine of their Premier League away games so far this season (W7 D2) – only in 1987-88 (first 15), 2018-19 (10) and 2019-20 (13) have they had longer unbeaten runs on the road from the start of a top-flight campaign.
- Liverpool have scored at least twice in each of their last 12 Premier League games, their second-longest such run, after doing so in 15 consecutive matches between March and September 2019.
- Matz Sels has kept nine clean sheets in the Premier League this season, more than any other goalkeeper. Indeed, the only Nottingham Forest keeper to record more in a single campaign in the competition is Mark Crossley (13 in 1994-95).
- 16 of Mohamed Salah’s 18 Premier League goals this season have come in the second half of games. In the competition’s history, only Salah himself has scored more for Liverpool after half-time in a single campaign (18 in 2017-18).
- Cody Gakpo has scored in each of Liverpool’s last three Premier League games, the longest run of his career in the competition. Only seven different Dutch players have ever scored in 4+ successive appearances in the Premier League (most recently Crysencio Summerville in November 2022), with just one doing so for Liverpool (Dirk Kuyt, 5 in May 2011).
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (13/01/25)
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