While it may not be the most appealing match to the neutral as Monday Night Football returns post-international break, it is certainly one that can be described as intriguing.
The belief that Burnley will kick on in the Premier League - and I was one of many who believed they could given displays en route to the Sky Bet Championship title - has not materialised, in the early stages at least.
Three goals scored with 11 conceded in their opening three have left them bottom of the table. To be fair to the Clarets, they have had to face Manchester City and the in-form and impressive Tottenham.
The underlying numbers have supported the results, even if the 'expected' and 'actual' are a slight distance apart. With 6.7 xGA (expected goals against), they've posted 2.31 xG in return.
Forest have more points than predicted at this stage with games against Chelsea and Sheffield United delivering victories alongside fancied losses to Arsenal and Manchester United - although they did hold a 2-0 lead against the latter at Old Trafford.
They'll fancy their chances in front of their own supporters - 30 of their 38 points gained last season came at the City Ground.
What are the best bets?
In terms of individual best bets in this game, little has jumped out to me.
One I will mention is that AMEEN AL-DAKHIL may be value if he lines up as Burnley's right-back again - he's available at 66s to be the first goalscorer which also opens up some nice each-way odds.
He started in that position against Tottenham while also coming off the bench on the right side of the back four when Burnley won here in the Carabao Cup in August.
Al-Dakhil posted three shots in their last outing which came in quick succession but his heat map outlines that he did get forward and join the attack when possible.
The thing that makes me doubt whether to fully back this is that he may not be playing there again given the mixed performances. He's got the pace to do so but Burnley have options to rotate in defence.
He could feature at centre-back again which at least makes the bet a runner, but in terms of pointed stakes behind the pick I'd need to see him in this role on a more longer term basis.
BuildABet @ 30/1
- Morgan Gibbs-White to score or assist
- Josh Cullen 2+ fouls
- Willy Boly 2+ tackles
- Joe Worrall to be carded
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Morgan Gibbs-White has been a positive part of this Nottingham Forest side since his arrival last summer and posted five goals and eight assists in the season that followed. That came after a Sky Bet Championship campaign with 12 goals and ten assists with Sheffield United.
Centre-back partners Willy Boly and Joe Worrall should be involved, with Boly posting at least two successful tackles in each of his four league outings so far, while Worrall has 17 cards across his last three seasons with Forest.
On the Burnley side of things, Josh Cullen has registered at least one successful tackle in all three league games, with two fouls coming in each of the previous two.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Team news
Steve Cooper has a near full squad to choose from, although a couple of players will be assessed ahead of the fixture.
Serge Aurier and Anthony Elanga are in focus, with Cooper claiming he's "not sure" if they will be ready in time.
Vincent Kompany remains without Darko Churlinov, Michael Obafemi and Hjalmar Ekdal who are all still sidelined.
Anass Zaroury is back after serving a three-match suspension, while Vitinho and Aaron Ramsey have recovered from previous injuries.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest: Turner; Williams, Boly, Worrall, McKenna, Aina; Kouyate, Yates; Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Awoniyi
Burnley: Trafford; Al-Dakhil, Beyer, O'Shea, Roberts; Gudmundsson, Berge, Cullen, Koleosho; Foster, Amdouni
Match facts
- Nottingham Forest have won their last four Premier League home games, scoring a different number of goals each time (3-1 v Brighton, 4-3 v Southampton, 1-0 v Arsenal, 2-1 v Sheffield United). They last won more consecutively as a top-flight club between April and August 1991 (7).
- Burnley have lost all three of their Premier League games so far this season – only twice in their history have they lost their first four in a league campaign, doing so in 1927-28 (top-flight) and 2002-03 (second tier). They managed to avoid relegation at the end of the campaign both times.
- Burnley have lost 3-0 against Man City, 3-1 against Aston Villa, and 5-2 against Tottenham this season. Only one team has started a Premier League campaign with four straight defeats while conceding 3+ goals each time, with West Ham doing so in 2010-11.
- Burnley have had 35 sequences of 10+ passes in open play in the Premier League this season, an average of 11.7 per game. In their last top-flight campaign in 2021-22, they averaged just 2.9 of these per game, fewer than any other side.
- Nottingham Forest have scored in each of their last 11 Premier League matches, their longest scoring streak in the top-flight since a run of 14 between February and August 1995.
- Since the start of last season, Taiwo Awoniyi has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other Nottingham Forest player (15 – 13 goals, 2 assists). He's scored or assisted in each of his last eight appearances in the competition, netting nine goals in this run and assisting Anthony Elanga's winner against Chelsea last time out.
- Lyle Foster has scored in his last two Premier League games for Burnley, having netted just once in his first 12 league games for the Clarets. Benni McCarthy (5 runs between 2006-2009) and Steven Pienaar (2010) are the only South African players to have scored in three consecutive Premier League appearances.
Odds correct at 1445 BST (18/08/23)
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