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Nottingham Forest v Derby tips: Sky Bet Championship preview and best bets
Nottingham Forest host Derby in a crucial East Midlands clash and Joe Rindl has picked out a Forest man to continue his fine form.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Lewis Grabban to score first at 9/2 (Betway)
Nottingham Forest head into their crucial East Midlands match-up with Derby County knowing a win would get them back into the hunt for a Championship play-off spot.
But, despite their off-the-field troubles, Derby are not to be sniffed at, with Wayne Rooney's side now only eight points off safety and in the midst of a five-match unbeaten run.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Forest 19/20 | Draw 23/10 | Derby 16/5
Let's start by taking a look at Forest's form. Steve Cooper's side stuttered a little at the end of 2021 with back-to-back losses against Middlesbrough and Huddersfield.
Recently though the mood at the City Ground has taken an upward turn after a huge FA Cup shock over Arsenal and a last-gasp win against Millwall last weekend.
The Tricky Trees will end January with three matches against teams in the division's bottom five.
With the hosts five points off the play-offs as things stand, the more optimistic of supporters will be hoping to have breached that gap by February.
Sadly, Derby County's future is in the balance. The Rams find themselves in administration with severe debt and faces expulsion from the league if the club cannot prove it can fund the rest of the season by 1 February.
It's a sorry situation for all of Derby's players, coaches and supporters.
Their on-pitch performances however have been a ray of light. Derby are not a team to be underestimated.
Last time out they clinically beat Sheffield United 2-0 (xG 0.63-0.65) with star man Tom Lawrence netting both goals.
The Rams have racked up 13 points from their past five fixtures, a return only matched by playoff-chasing Middlesbrough.
And Derby's form can be backed up by the underlying stats. Across their last five league games they have won the expected goals battle on three occasions with one outlier their scrappy 1-0 win over West Brom and the other their narrow xG loss with the Blades.
Without their points deduction Derby would be 12th, two points and two spots off Forest.
Under 2.5 goals will be a popular bet for many with Forest games seeing that play land in each of their last four outings.
But the underlying numbers do point in a different direction with Forest managing xG totals of 3.77, 1.82, 0.89, 1.75 and 2.13 across their last five league fixtures.
Forward Lewis Grabban has been mightily impressive this season, netting the winner against Millwall, his 11th goals in his 24th Championship game this term.
He will be hoping for a third successive first-goalscorer accolade having also broken the deadlock against Arsenal in the cup.
GRABBAN averages 0.60 expected goals per 95 minutes and, given that he is also on penalty duties, is good value at 9/2 TO SCORE FIRST.
Derby have kept just one clean sheet in their past four in all competitions and last kept out their opposition away from home in November.
Grabban will be tough to keep out.
Nottingham Forest v Derby score prediction and best bet
- 1pt Lewis Grabban to score first at 9/2 (Betway)
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1430 GMT (20/01/22)
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Nottingham Forest head into their East Midlands showdown with Derby County looking for the victory which could get them back into the hunt for the Championship playoffs.
Despite their ongoing off-the-pitch troubles, Derby have put together a five-match unbeaten streak in the Championship, moving the club to within eight points of safety.